ACC Plays 11/22

[jimmyshivers]

24 - 15 +24.8 units

Lost my first *** play of the year last week, but still was able to grind out a winning week thanks to the three ** dogs all winning outright. Onto this week....

*** Wake Forest Deamon Deacons -1.5

If this game was played 2 weeks ago, the Deacs would be laying 5 or 6 points. I think we are getting some serious line value due to the Deacs dropping a game to the cellar dwelling (but much improved) Wolfpack and BC winning 2 straight games against name programs.

Wake Forest has been a huge disapointment this season, and this is a gut-check type of game for the Deacs. I really like them in this spot because of their experience and superior coaching. Amazingly, tampa is still on the table for both of these teams.

On the field I see the Eagles as susceptible to lapses in the secondary. Skinner has been disapointing all season but he will have chances this week. Add to that a QB like Chris Crane who throwns interceptions like I throw away empties and I see Wake having a short field for much of the day.

Deacs by 9.

I will write up the games as I have the time, but I feel pretty strongly about this card. Will likely have 2 *** plays and may even have a third.

BOL this week :toast:

 

[Basket Case]

Opinion?

Thanks for your ACC takes. Much appreciated.

What are your thoughts on North Carolina State +11 over North Carolina?

I realize the game is at North Carolina, but this is an intrastate game with recruiting implications.

I'm leaning strongly on taking

+11 over

.

Thoughts?

 

[jimmyshivers]

^

** North Carolina State Wolfpack + 11


This one could have easily made ***. You get a team with possibly the best qb in the ACC getting double digit points in a rivalry game where the records usually don't matter. State has been on a tear as of late, going 5-0 ats since the return of their qb. State is finally healthy defensively and has seen a much improved effort on that side of the ball over the last couple of weeks.

Carolina can put points up in a hurry, especially when they generate turnovers. Wolfpack qb has a 12-1 TD INT ratio on the season and routinely throws the ball away when he doesnt have anything. Carolina is the kind of team that lives off of forcing turnovers and I think State has an excellent shot at protecting the ball and limiting those mistakes.

If Carolina had won @ UMD last week, this play would have set up more nicely but I like it alot as it is. Both teams still have something to play for as State would like to go bowling and UNC is still thinking Tampa, so I envision a highly competitive game. State will have a solid presence in the stands for this one and should be still in it well into the fourth. Carolina should win, but it won't be easy

UNC by 3.

p.s. I admit to being a State fan so take that for what its worth, but I feel I have a pretty good read on both of these teams...

 

[FairWarning]

Very nice record. Think I will tag along on NC State.

 

[GoSooners]

I like both of these plays. NCST is definitely a team on the upswing at the end of the season.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

good to see you on both of these games as well...GL this week bro...

 

[trentmoney]

was on nc st vs BC
been on them last 2 weeks
on them again this week

:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

thanks guys, hope everyone has a profitable week..

*** Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3

We have a very strong home team playing a team that is completely unproven on the road. Miami hasn't played a good team on the road since the second game of the season where they were completely outclassed by the Gators. Miami is currently in a 5 game winning streak, but has beaten some very average competition in getting there (Cen. Fla, Duke, Wake, UVA and VT). Three of those teams may be bowl bound but its mainly because of a down ACC season.

GT belongs in the upper crust this year. Paul Johnson's team has suprised almost everyone by not only being competitive in its first season, but in staying in the conference championship race until the very end. GT has struggled in the last few weeks but I see this as a team that has a great chance to salvage their season.


To win (and cover) GT needs to have success when throwing the ball. They do not throw often, averaging 14 attempts over their last 3 games. They should be able to find enough success against a Miami defense that will be keying on the run to keep the Canes off balance.


Glad to see GT get a week off after a very disappointing loss @ UNC; they have had time to digest what happened in that game and mentally recover. It is also beneficial to have the extra week to prepare for this game. This team has Georgia next week but I don't see a lookahead spot for this team as that game has no impact on where their season ends up. The Jackets are still eyeing Tampa, and I think they get there with a big win @ home on national TV.


In short, I like GT because they have home field and a much better coaching staff than Miami with an additional week to prepare. Miami has been winning against the bad teams with smoke and mirrors, but that will not get them out of Atlanta with a win. I just don't think this team has the grapes to win this one.

This game also falls into a long-term successful system were if a ranked team is getting points against an unranked team, you take the points.

BOL have a few more on the board...

 

[June_Jones]

like the yellow jackets a lot this week, either with nesbitt or jaybo. question for you acc gurus, i personally think Duke +17 at vt might be a good play. beamer doesn't like to blow teams out and with musical chairs at qb i see few points in this game. i know it's duke, but i think if they put a td on the board it's cruise control to a cover.

 

[jimmyshivers]

like the yellow jackets a lot this week, either with nesbitt or jaybo. question for you acc gurus, i personally think Duke +17 at vt might be a good play. beamer doesn't like to blow teams out and with musical chairs at qb i see few points in this game. i know it's duke, but i think if they put a td on the board it's cruise control to a cover.

Duke has hit the wall pretty hard at this point. Not a very talented team but they got a burst from a soft early schedule and some positive momentum. Cutcliffe is a good coach but he has his work cut out from him. I could see this game getting out of hand simply because the Hokies will be excited to finally step on someones throat! I expect 30 + from VT in this game and lean to VT, but the large line is not usually my thing. BOL to you no matter what you decide to do.

 

[FearTheRaven]

like all those jimmy, really like WF this week.

What you think about my Terps?

 

[jimmyshivers]

like all those jimmy, really like WF this week.

What you think about my Terps?

Like the 'Noles in this game, waiting to play it to get more points...

 

[TheNoob]

Like the 'Noles in this game, waiting to play it to get more points...

What is the status of the players that got into the fight?

 

[jimmyshivers]

What is the status of the players that got into the fight?

Haven't heard anything yet, but to me it is an overrated issue. 'Noles struggled with it last week because it affected their gameplan. I would imagine Jimbo has a good idea of who will play this week and has planned accordingly. Feel like FSU would rather run the ball in this game anyways, UMD giving up 168 rushing ypg over the last 3 and FSU knows where their bread is buttered.

Will probably lock this game in tomorrow. Will also have Clemson but no time for a write-up yet...

 

[TheNoob]

Haven't heard anything yet, but to me it is an overrated issue. 'Noles struggled with it last week because it affected their gameplan. I would imagine Jimbo has a good idea of who will play this week and has planned accordingly. Feel like FSU would rather run the ball in this game anyways, UMD giving up 168 rushing ypg over the last 3 and FSU knows where their bread is buttered.

Will probably lock this game in tomorrow. Will also have Clemson but no time for a write-up yet...

I hate to be on the other side of you, but I'm on UVA. They need one more game to become Bowl Eligible so its either at home against Clemson or on the road at VT. The players really want to lock it in this week.

BOL, at least one of us will be :cripwalk:.

 

[GATA]

great stuff here

 

[jimmyshivers]

25-15 +27.8 units


* Clemson Tigers -2.5

I really really hate laying road chalk so I will play it small, but I see us getting some line advantage here due to the first two months of the Tiger season. Clemson has played much better the past three games, as the firestorm surrounding the program has died down. Swinney isn't coaching for this job anymore and I think he has been able to channel his intensity in a manner that is more productive for the team.

On the field I really like what the Clemson defense brings to the table. They are allowing an amazing 118 passing yards per game over their last 3 (3.6 yards per completion and 50 % completion) and allowing less than 11 first downs a game. UVA is a team that thrives on being able to throw the ball to have offensive success. I just don't see them being able to establish any kind of rhythm offensively.

Clemson has enough balance with the ball to keep the Wahoo defense on their toes. The offense has begun to (relatively) gel and the UVA defense has a hard time getting stops, allowing more than 18 first downs a game. I look for the Tigers to be able to control the pace of the game and win in a fairly tight game.

Clemson is operating under the assumption that they have to win out to make a bowl; if they overlook this game due to the USC game next week even with a win there bowling is no certainty. Both teams will likely be underdogs in their last game so this is their best chance to claim bowl eligibility, and I think they will both show up. Clemson also travels well and will have a definite presence in Charlottesville. I think UVA made a great run this season considering their start but this team has hit a wall that they can't run thru.

Still waiting on FSU...

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Florida State Seminoles -1 -105

Almost forgot to write this game up. Love the situation we are put in this week by the FSU loss to BC and the UMD home win over UNC. In an up and down conference (especially with the ultimate rubberband team in the Terps) it seems that no team is head and shoulders above the others to sustain that kind of momentum. The Terps are 4-0 vs. ranked teams but only 3-3 against unranked foes, and are 0-3 in games played at night.

Keeping this one short, but I like the balance of the FSU defense; they are able to limit both running and passing attacks. Add to that a running game that averages over 5.5 ypc over the last three games and I see a team that can keep this game out of their QB's hands. When you qb is Christian Ponder, that is a good thing! I look for the Noles to keep the game on the ground and attempt to establish control of this game and keep themselves in the title hunt. Simply put, I don't think Maryland is good enough to handle the pressure of this game.

BOL everyone there is a good chance that is my final card, still looking @ a few totals.

:toast: :drink:

 

[AlwaysKeen]

keep on keepin' on jimmy...

 

[jimmyshivers]

GL to you pags...Always glad to see us on the same side