ACC Plays 11/16

[jimmyshivers]

20-12 +22.3 units

** Maryland Terrapins +3

Maryland has been up and down all season but I see this as a good spot for the Terps to get back to their winning ways.

The terps have been a strong offensive team at home, completing 62 percent of their passes while averaging 5.6 ypc over their last 3 home games. The QB turner manages the offense efficiently and has not thrown an interception in the last 3 games. Ball control to me is the big factor in this game; if the Terps can prevent the turnover they can limit the Tarheels ability to be as opportunistic as they have been this year. In the loss @ UVA the Heels were not able to create any turnovers.

The offense of Carolina has been okay since the loss of gamebreaker Tate, but they are about to undergo a QB change. Cam Sexton looked very shaky on Saturday as TJ Yates has been cleared to return. It looked like Sexton was looking over his shoulder after every bad throw. I expect Sexton to get the start but if he struggles his leash will probably be very short. Carolina is a better team with a healthy Yates @ QB but he only saw limited action on Saturday and looked very rusty.

Three times this season the Terps have lost games on the road, and after the first two games they came home to upend a ranked team. I look for this trend to continue as the Terps try to stay in the race for Tampa.

 

[Flsunman]

Nice picks last week. Tailed you on NC state and nobody know's a team better than an unbiased fan.

I like Maryland, any early lean on Miami/VT?

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

good to see you on Maryland as well this week...agree completely with your analysis...

 

[jimmyshivers]

* Duke Blue Devils +11

Just a play against Clemson here, they shouldn't be laying double digits to anyone at this point. Going small with it but it looks like a very +EV play to me. Swinney is going to be an interim coach and though they have improved they are no where near good enough to be laying this kind of chalk. Clemson should win this game but their the kind of team that is certainly capable of an outright loss, so I will take double digit points for a small play and see how Clemson blows this game.

Tigers by 7.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

understand your reasoning for the Duke play and don't completely disagree...was a few games from making it onto my card, but ultimately didn't...GL with this one jimmy...

 

[jimmyshivers]

Thanks pags, at least your not on the other side.

** North Carolina State Wolfpack +3.5

I feel like NCS is the most improved team in the conference over the last month. Part of that is a rash of returning players from injury (including the middle of a defense that had been porous against the run) and part of that is a maturation of the young defensive talent. Add to that a WF offense that has underachieved all season (in conference road games they are averaging a pathetic 7.3 ppg) and its a good recipe for the wolfpack defense to continue their maturation on saturday.

I feel like Wake has a decent defense, but it can be exploited by a heady qb. The State offense has gotten much more potent as the season has progressed, due to have a qb who can survive the porous offensive line with his feet and still make sharp downfield throws.

Wake and State are probably about even talent wise at this point in the season but a lopsided W-L record for NCSU has created some value for the improved home dog here.

State 30
Wake 24

Even though Wake has struggled to score on the road, State's defense does give u its fair share. I think State wins in a high scoring affair and will have at least a 2 unit play on the over later in the week.

BOL :toast: :drink:

 

[jimmyshivers]

** Boston College Eagles +7 -120


FSU has been an excellent running team so far this season, but they are running into a BC team that has stopped the run all season long. I think for this many points you would like to see a team whose strength is going up against an opponents weakness, but BC has thrived on shutting down the running attack, allowing 90 ypg on the ground over the last 3 games. I dont trust Ponder to make the necessary throws on the 3rd and long situations that I envision this Florida State team running into all day. If FSU had the aerial firepower to keep BC on their toes I could see them covering this number, but I think BC will be able to limit FSU's offense enough to stay in this game.


P.S. I've heard that there is a rumor of possible FSU suspensions for this game. This can only help....

 

[AlwaysKeen]

with you on NCSU as well...was leaning FSU's way earlier in the week but won't be on the game (especially with the FSU suspension rumors)...keep up the good work...

 

[jimmyshivers]

with you on NCSU as well...was leaning FSU's way earlier in the week but won't be on the game (especially with the FSU suspension rumors)...keep up the good work...

BOL to you this week pags. Do you post your card anywhere? It seems like we sync up fairly often and I would like to check out some of your other action.

:toast:

 

[AlwaysKeen]

yeah, I'm pretty supersitious as to where I post, but I always try to give my input here at the rx...

 

[jimmyshivers]

understood man, BOL to you this weekend...

*** NCSU/Wake O 42.5

Explained this one above, State has a hard time stopping anyone and they seem to be able to break 20 against just about anyone w/ Wilson. We get a low line due to Wakes road struggles but this one looks like it will break 50 to me.



* Miami Hurricanes -4.5

Gonna keep the writing short on this one. We have two teams here who are excellent @ run defense. The difference to me is that when the run games fail for both teams Miami will be able to throw the ball more effectively than VT. Hokie defense giving up an awful 13.4 yard per completion average over the last three games. VT had a great ground game last week but they have been mediocre running all season and Miami should be able to control the LOS defensively. Miami seems to find ways to win and I think this young VT team falls back to earth in this spot.

May come back with a play on the under in this one. BOL everyone.

 

[TheNoob]

Did you know Fox was out at RT...That scares me against VT's pass rush.

 

[aderol]

Is a *** your highest play? a better question is how do you rate your plays?

 

[jimmyshivers]

I am a little concerned about the RT being out. Not a strong play on this game but I like UM's balance on offense. They should keep VT honest enough so that they can't stack the line like they like to do. More of a play against VT and their garbage passing game. If they can't run the ball, they just cant score...

highest play is ****, but it comes around very rarely. 5-0 on *** so far this year. I rate plays based on my perceived advantage against the number. I feel the Wake game goes over 50, so my advantage in my mind is 9 points, thus a strong play.

 

[TheNoob]

Thanks ... I like wake O as well, just that Miami was playing tonight and wanted to make sure you knew about Fox!

BOL

 

[zeketaylor]

I am a little concerned about the RT being out. Not a strong play on this game but I like UM's balance on offense. They should keep VT honest enough so that they can't stack the line like they like to do. More of a play against VT and their garbage passing game. If they can't run the ball, they just cant score...

highest play is ****, but it comes around very rarely. 5-0 on *** so far this year. I rate plays based on my perceived advantage against the number. I feel the Wake game goes over 50, so my advantage in my mind is 9 points, thus a strong play.

yes yes....bout time u converted......as a self proclaimed Miami Expert.....u r on the right side here.....Hurricanes might win by dd......i saw line was +180 at -10.5.......

 

[TheNoob]

BOL this weekend!

 

[jimmyshivers]

thanks noob, congrats on the W last night.

Bout time you changed that avatar!

20-13 +21.2 units

still kicking around a play or two BOL everyone:toast:

 

[jimmyshivers]

** FSU/BC under 44.5

What am I missing here? No team in the country can come out unscathed after losing 5 WRs, especially a team with as mediocre a passing game as FSU. Their gonna have to rely even more on the run, and BC is strong against the run anyways. And their supposed to carry the scoring the load as the favorite? BC only averaging less than 4 yards per pass over the last 3. I see this as a grind-it-out game where both teams possibly stay under 20.

BOL everyone final card

*** NCS/Wake Over 42.5
** FSU/BC under 44.5
** NCS +3.5
** Maryland +3
** BC +7
*Duke +11
*Miami -4.5 (loss)

 

[RickDel]

JS, looks like pretty strong winds in Raleigh today. Would this change your NCS/Wake Over play?

GL today!