Burning questions
Can Florida State defend the run, though? Indeed, FSU has expectations again. It's not hard to see why. The first top-15 finish since 2016, plus a six-game winning streak, plus a top-10 returning production ranking, plus a top-20 recruiting class, plus another strong transfer haul equals top-10 hype.
The Seminoles might have a Heisman candidate, too. Quarterback
Jordan Travis blossomed in 2022 -- among returnees, only USC's
Caleb Williams and Kansas' smallish-sample
Jalon Daniels ranked higher than Travis in Total QBR. He raised his completion rate to 64% and managed a 24-to-5 TD-to-INT ratio. And because he's Jordan Travis, he also averaged 8.0 yards per nonsack carry and 9.7 yards per scramble. Opponents hold their breath the moment he looks to leave the pocket.
Travis began his career at Louisville before transferring in 2019; that's pretty symbolic considering this team is a transfer portal best-case scenario. Leading rusher
Trey Benson came from Oregon, leading receiver
Johnny Wilson from Arizona State. All-conference guard
D'Mitri Emmanuel started at Charlotte, and explosive defensive end
Jared Verse was a one-year star at Albany. Defensive tackle
Fabien Lovett, returning from injury after a solid 2021, came from Mississippi State, linebacker
Tatum Bethune from UCF.
There are plenty of homegrown contributors, too -- most of the secondary has played only at FSU, as has linebacker
Kalen DeLoach. But somehow, when Mike Norvell took over a directionless program in 2020, he brought stability from the portal, the last place you'd think to look for it.
Predictably, Norvell is going back to the well. Michigan State receiver
Keon Coleman, UTEP offensive tackle
Jeremiah Byers, Western Michigan defensive tackle
Braden Fiske, South Carolina defensive end
Gilber Edmond and Virginia cornerback
Fentrell Cypress II are among this year's marquee transfers, and they join a team that both clicked massively in 2022 and returns 14 starters. The two-deep overflows. If the new additions up front allow the Noles to actually slow opposing run games, there isn't an obvious hole.
That hole definitely needs plugging, though. The pass defense was first-rate last season -- albeit with some luck in the "opponents' starters getting hurt" department -- and opponents did whatever it took to avoid throwing. FSU ranked ninth in yards allowed per dropback and fifth in sack rate, and opponents ran the ball 5% more than the national average on both standard and passing downs. The Seminoles were rewarded for the ground-game commitment: FSU ranked 63rd in rushing success rate allowed and 93rd in percentage of opponent carries gaining at least 4 yards. Louisville, Florida and Oklahoma all topped 250 rushing yards against the Noles, and while FSU won all three of those matchups, it had to average 38 points per game to do it. When you've got top-10 (or higher!) expectations, you can't leave yourself that vulnerable.
Was Garrett Riley all that Clemson was lacking? "Old Dabo would've hired Zach Kittley." That's what a coach friend texted after Swinney, dealing with a suddenly decrepit offense in 2021, promoted from within to solve his problems instead of bringing in a high-upside outsider like Texas Tech's Kittley. A decade or so ago, when Swinney was still attempting to get the Clemson plane off the ground, he brought in key outsiders, asking Chad Morris to modernize his offense and Brent Venables to modernize his defense. All those conference titles, and the pair of national titles, suggest it worked. But now that he had built his culture and his model, he shunned outside help last offseason.
New coordinator Brandon Streeter indeed engineered improvement: Clemson bounced back from 63rd to 39th in offensive SP+, and quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei jumped from a dire 97th in Total QBR to 51st. But 39th and 51st don't get you in the national title conversation, especially when your first-year defensive coordinator produces only good and not elite results. Swinney acknowledged this by finally calling on an outsider. After helping to bring TCU to the national title game,
Garrett Riley takes over as the Tigers' offensive coordinator. He made a Heisman finalist out of Max Duggan, and with Uiagalelei off to Oregon State, Riley will try to make something similar out of blue-chip sophomore
Cade Klubnik.
Klubnik was more efficient than Uiagalelei over 116 dropbacks, albeit with a couple of bowl-game interceptions against Tennessee. He will benefit from a much more experienced skill corps than what Clemson had last year: Receivers
Antonio Williams,
Beaux Collins and
Jake Briningstool are back after playing primary roles as freshmen or sophomores, and junior running back
Will Shipley returns after rushing for 1,182 yards (with 38 receptions). Only Shipley is a star, but Riley and his varied formations should help spice up the passing game, especially with a well-seasoned line protecting Klubnik.
Even with the offensive improvement last season, Clemson actually fell from 11th to 14th overall in SP+ because the defense slipped more than the offense improved. The defense had no clear and obvious weaknesses in coordinator Wes Goodwin's first year, but it went from great to good in a lot of categories and slipped from first to 25th in defensive SP+. A sophomore-heavy secondary was a little on the passive side, and the line battled injuries; even with more offensive improvement likely, the defense will need to at least bounce back to a top-15-or-so level for Clemson to have national aspirations.
It has the talent to do so. Tackles
Ruke Orhorhoro and
Tyler Davis combined for 19 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks, and after missing most of 2022 with injury, sixth-year end
Xavier Thomas should provide a boost on the edge. Nickelback
Barrett Carter and linebacker
Jeremiah Trotter Jr. (combined: 16.5 TFLs, 18 passes defended, 24 run stops) are incredibly well-rounded. An aggression boost in the secondary could make a big difference.
Does Jeff Brohm still have the magic first-year touch? The 2016 Purdue Boilermakers were, in a word, dismal. Fourth-year coach Darrell Hazell was fired midway through a 3-9 season and left town with an overall record of 9-33. The offense was occasionally interesting, but the defense kept figuring out ways to get worse. It felt like first-year coach Jeff Brohm was facing a long-term rebuild heading into 2017.
But in his first game, with help from very few transfers, the Boilermakers nearly knocked off Lamar Jackson and Louisville. Two weeks later, they clocked Missouri on the road, 35-3. After a midseason offensive funk, they knocked off Iowa, rival Indiana and then Arizona in a wild Foster Farms Bowl to finish 7-6. In one year, Purdue jumped from 108th to 54th in SP+. Brohm didn't necessarily improve things much further -- the Boilermakers went 29-35 with an average SP+ ranking of 55.8 after that initial turnaround -- but this was an incredible first impression.
Brohm's second first year at a major program will be different in a couple of ways. For one thing, the former Louisville quarterback inherits a team that has already rebounded a bit. After slipping to 4-7 in 2020, Scott Satterfield's Cardinals moved back to 8-5 and 33rd in SP+ last fall. Only a couple of narrow conference defeats (to FSU and Boston College by a combined five points) prevented an even bigger year.
For another thing, Brohm isn't looking to simply make the most of what he inherits. He has been as aggressive as anyone not named Deion Sanders in the transfer portal, adding 25 transfers and counting, including power-conference starters in Cal quarterback
Jack Plummer, Purdue tackle
Eric Miller, Stanford defensive end
Stephen Herron and a load of defensive backs including UNC corner
Storm Duck. He also brought in maybe Georgia State's two best players in receiver
Jamari Thrash and defensive tackle
Jeffery Clark.
Add that to inherited stars in running back
Jawhar Jordan, all-conference center
Bryan Hudson and cornerback Jarvis Brownlee Jr., and Louisville is the biggest wild card in the conference. Maybe chemistry problems will arise, and Brohm's magic first-year touch no longer applies. Or maybe an already solid team leaps to a top-15 level of play and becomes the de facto No. 3 challenger in the ACC. There might still be depth issues at receiver and linebacker, but there's a lot to like here, and the last time Brohm changed schools, short-term magic followed.
Can two familiar newcomers fix a broken offense in Raleigh? Historically, NC State has boasted a high but difficult-to-maintain ceiling. Each of the past five Wolfpack coaches has won nine games in a season at least once, but only one has done it more than twice: Dave Doeren. The 51-year-old enters his 11th season in Raleigh having gone through a couple of up-and-down cycles. His Pack went 9-4 in both 2017 and 2018, fielding top-25 offenses and individually talented but inconsistent defenses. The offense completely collapsed during a 4-8 stumble in 2019, but the school remained married to Doeren, who rewarded the faith with 25 wins in three seasons.
The defense has grown increasingly stout, rising to 22nd in defensive SP+ in 2021 and 13th last fall. But injury and inexperience at quarterback led to a total offensive collapse, and after a 7-2 start in 2022, the Wolfpack lost three of four to finish. (Average points per game in five losses: 14.2.)
With veteran QB
Devin Leary transferring to Kentucky and offensive coordinator Tim Beck taking the Coastal Carolina head-coaching job, Doeren made a couple of intriguing additions. The 2021 Virginia offense, led by coordinator Robert Anae and 4,400-yard passer
Brennan Armstrong, finished 16th in offensive SP+; Doeren said "Give me that," recruiting both Anae and Armstrong to Raleigh.
Anae's UVA offense was heavy on misdirection, motion and multiplicity, and it certainly got the most out of the Cavaliers' personnel. It will need to craft some big plays without any proven big-play pieces beyond Cincinnati receiver transfer
Jadon Thompson (14.6 yards per catch). Receiver
Terrell Timmons Jr. and running back
Michael Allen, both sophomores, have potential but haven't yet realized it. Even with the relationship between Anae and Armstrong, it's difficult to set the bar particularly high here.
The offense will need to improve a decent amount, though, because the defense has a decent amount to replace. Sacks leader Drake Thomas, run stops leader Isaiah Moore and a major havoc creator in safety Tanner Ingle are all gone. Corner
Aydan White is a star, and the return of senior
Payton Wilson means the Wolfpack still have at least one excellent linebacker. But Doeren felt the need to add Old Dominion safety Robert "Poogie" Kennedy III and a pair of jucos to the secondary, and depth up front is unproven. Coordinator Tony Gibson gets the benefit of the doubt after fielding back-to-back top-25 defenses, but hitting last year's high notes -- holding five opponents to 17 or fewer points and five under 5 yards per play -- might be difficult.
How many key pieces can Dave Clawson lose at Wake Forest? It is a compliment and a curse: The more success a team has, the more star talent -- of the player and assistant coach varieties -- it has to replace. At some point, the replacements don't fare as well, and the success flags.
Clawson's success at Wake Forest has not yet flagged. The Demon Deacons had finished under .500 for five straight years when he took over in 2014, and he first built them into a regular bowl program (seven straight going back to 2016), then took them even further, winning 11 games and the Atlantic Division in 2021, backing the success up with an 8-5 campaign last fall, and spending parts of both seasons in the AP top 10. (Total top-10 appearances for Wake before 2021: zero.)
Clawson's reward for this level of success: losing two defensive coordinators in six years to different jobs and losing several stars to the transfer portal, including running back Kenneth Walker III (to Michigan State) in 2021, running back
Christian Beal-Smith (South Carolina) in 2022 and both quarterback
Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) and defensive end
Rondell Bothroyd (Oklahoma) in 2023.
Wake hit an offensive peak over the past two years with Hartman behind center. He threw for a combined 7,929 yards and 77 touchdowns, and Wake ranked fifth and eighth, respectively, in offensive SP+. That papered over defensive cracks. With offensive coordinator Warren Ruggiero still in place -- no one has successfully plucked him away yet -- along with a diverse and potentially dynamite receiving corps, the floor should remain high. But can a new starting quarterback (likely 5-foot-11 sophomore
Mitch Griffis) create the same ceiling? And will the offensive line regress after losing three starters?
The defense hasn't really recovered from Mike Elko's departure in 2017. The Deacs averaged a 21.0 defensive SP+ ranking with Elko but have averaged an 87.2 since. Over the past five years, they've allowed a ghastly 44.4 points per game in losses. Second-year coordinator Brad Lambert has success on his résumé, and he's got disruptive pieces such as end
Jasheen Davis, linebacker
Chase Jones and safety
Malik Mustapha to work with. In theory, the defense will need to offset offensive regression for Wake to keep winning, but Clawson's track record suggests the Deacs will figure out a way.
Which once-shining star has more brightness left, Dino Babers or Jeff Hafley? Long-term success is difficult to pull off at schools that have limited resources (of the recruiting and/or infrastructure varieties) compared to some of their conference peers.
For all of Syracuse's historic success -- 10 top-15 finishes and countless pro stars, from Jim Brown to Larry Csonka to Donovan McNabb to Marvin Harrison to Dwight Freeney -- the Orange have managed just two top-10 finishes in the past 30 years.
For the highs that Boston College has seen as a program -- a top-five finish with Heisman winner Doug Flutie at quarterback in 1984, a top-10 finish with Matt Ryan in 2007 -- the Eagles have won one bowl and spent a grand total of seven weeks ranked in the past 15 years.
Both of these schools' current coaches, Syracuse's Dino Babers and BC's Jeff Hafley, have learned that initial success and sustained success are different beasts. Babers upset defending national champion Clemson in his second season and won 10 games in his third but proceeded to go just 11-24 in Years 4-6. A successful former Ohio State defensive coordinator, Hafley improved BC from 70th to 48th in SP+ in 2020, his first season in charge, but his Eagles went from an unlucky 6-5 to a lucky 6-6 and 73rd in 2021, then a downright bad 3-9 and 112th last year.
If anything else, Hafley might be able to take encouragement from Babers' trajectory. After bottoming out spectacularly at 1-10 in 2020, Syracuse rebounded to 5-7, then 7-6. He heads into his eighth season at an interesting inflection point. The Orange's offense improved last fall behind the coaching combo of coordinator Robert Anae and QB coach Jason Beck; with Anae off to NC State, Beck takes over the playcalling and could have fun with the pass-catch combination of
Garrett Shrader and
Oronde Gadsden II. But the loss of 1,000-yard rusher
Sean Tucker and both starting tackles could prove to be an obstacle.
Defensively, Syracuse has ranked between 58th and 71st in defensive SP+ for four straight years but returns 10 of 14 players with 300-plus snaps, including sixth-year tackle
Caleb Okechukwu (9.5 TFLs, seven sacks) and edge man
Marlowe Wax (11.5 TFLs, 4.5 sacks). Babers also made an intriguing new coordinator hire, bringing veteran Rocky Long, master of the 3-3-5 defense, over from New Mexico. If the 73-year-old has some more tricks up his sleeve, Syracuse could improve its win total again. SP+ isn't yet convinced, though.
Boston College has a lot further to go. The offense has ranked 94th for two straight years, and after showing loads of promise in Hafley's first two seasons, the defense bottomed out to 102nd last year. Even the special teams unit collapsed to 123rd. Nothing worked. And that was
with first-round NFL draft pick Zay Flowers at receiver, former blue-chip quarterback
Phil Jurkovec and loads of veterans in the defensive back seven.
Hafley moved tight ends coach Steve Shimko to quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator and brought in former NFL OC Rob Chudzinski as something called the "associate head coach for offense and offensive development." This tandem will be working with one of two young, mobile QBs -- either
Emmett Morehead or UCF transfer
Thomas Castellanos -- and a mostly unproven skill corps. The biggest home run threats are probably newcomers in wide receiver
Ryan O'Keefe (UCF) and running back
Kye Robichaux (Western Kentucky). The line is probably the best feature, returning all five starters, plus 2021 star
Christian Mahogany (injured last fall) and starters from Virginia (tackle
Logan Taylor) and Texas State (all-Sun Belt guard
Kyle Hergel).
Defensively, BC has a star in end
Donovan Ezeiruaku, and linebackers
Kam Arnold and
Vinny DePalma are keepers, but the secondary is under renovation. Hafley's track record suggests a bounce-back is possible, but the pass defense is worrisome.