ACC (and other) plays for Week 12

[jimmyshivers]

47-46 -7.8 units YTD

This year I've basically been a coin flip, and it feels like every week im struggling to break even. Stopped watching the ND game Sat night, counting it as a loss, only to wake up Sunday and find that it won. Even with that 10 unit swing it was still a losing day. Onto this week.

****** North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5

BC has made a living this season off of going up against bad defenses in this league, having gone 4-0 against the 7th,8th, 10th and 12th ranked defenses in conference (with number 11 on deck next week) In their 2 games against top 6 defenses they were outgained by 200+ yards and even had negative yards in the first half! And though those two blow-out losses were on the road, the struggles of their offense against physical defenses are unrelated to location. Now we get the conference leading Tar Heel defense, allowing only 94 yards per game on the ground and leading the conference in scoring Defense, total Defense and rushing Defense. The Eagles are averaging less than 300 yards per game in conference play so I really expect them to struggle to move the ball here.

Eagles are 6-0 at home but have only beaten 1 bowl caliber team all season, and that was Central Michigan a few weeks ago. Carolina is coming into this game riding a 3 game winning and playing like the top 25 team that everyone thought they would be. The big improvement has been in the Carolina running game, which has allowed the Heels to control the ball and keep their strong defense fresh and playing up to their potential.

I expect both squads to have comparable motivation; both are bowl bound and likely eliminated from any ACC title contention. Both teams are coming off of bowl-clinching victories as well so that shouldn't be a mitigating factor here. BC is still mathematically alive for the title it's such a longshot that I don't expect them to get any added motivation from it. Based on fan support and ticket spending UNC actually has the higher bowl ceiling this year so they may have more to play for here.

Bottom line here is that I see BC's record as a mirage and that coupled with UNC's stiffling defense and current form makes the Tar Heels the play. Getting more than a FG with this defense is advantageous, but I feel the wrong team is favored here. Were getting an inflated line because of the gaudy BC home record put up against crappy teams. Heels by 7 IMO, and I will have a money line play as well as this looks like my favorite ACC play of the season.

 

[indiana]

J.S............

this is your week..... thank you for the play and write up... BOL with all your action this week.........

indy

 

[jimmyshivers]

Thanks Indiana,

BOL to you this week, I hope its been a profitable season for you :toast:

 

[VoiceofReason101]

really hoping to see BC, nice write up nevertheless.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

jimmy,

I'd like your thoughts on Miami when you have a chance...GL this week...

 

[Hndfulprls]

Excellent posts all season

I could not agree more on Carolina

Good Luck

 

[CornHunka]

On the outside, I love the play on Carolina (had them last week), but that was a big win over the Canes, might be in a serious letdown situation vs BC.

 

[J-Wayne]

Jimmy - love the UNC pick, I see it the exact same way. UNC is starting to play like the sum of the parts and not as individuals. BC is overrated (especially its vaunted '09 home record). Really like UNC in this spot and was shocked to see BC favored in this one. I have UNC -6.

I'm also looking hard at Duke and NC State. With Miami out of the ACC Title game, I think that they're the type of of team that may not have the focus to give full effort in all of their remaining games. If there's a game they may look past, I think its the Dukies. I had this one at Miami - 10 and see a lot of value.

As for NC State, they are a dreadful team, but the last 7 games vs. VT have all been decided by less than a TD. For whatever reason, they always seem to play each other close. Also, Russell Wilson is a VA native, not recruited by VT, so there's some extra motivation there. Lastly, I see this one being a high scoring affair. VT doesn't have the offense to put up more than 40, no matter how bad the D is their facing, so really you're betting on NCST to put up at least 19....I really like that bet.

Thoughts on NCST & Duke?

 

[awnp]

Jimmy, also like that UNC pick. Not only is the NC defense legit, at home or on the road, but I watched that CMU - BC game. BC had nice success against the CMU offense, but UNC's offense, while not as high power, is different. I can see them having some success where CMU didn't. BOL.

 

[jimmyshivers]

jimmy,

I'd like your thoughts on Miami when you have a chance...GL this week...

pags..Actually this is the 2nd play that jumped out at me after UNC this week. For me to lay the wood with the Canes here I need to believe that they can run away with this game.
First I look at how they have played with big numbers: Miami was undervalued earlier in the season so they haven't had to lay a number this big, but they are 2-0 laying DD chalk and are 3-1 ATS at home this season. Thats a check for Miami.

Secondly, I'm looking at Duke's form and motivation. After rallying late against UVA they have been demolished twice (not covering DD spreads @ home or in a rivalry game) and really haven't shown very much fight. Also if you look at their 3 conference wins they were against arguably the 3 worst teams in the league so perhaps the were the beneficiary of friendly scheduling. There also eliminated from bowl contention after the blow-out disappointment last week and the campus focus has already shifted full tilt to basketball. They have a winnable big 4 game next week against WF so I could see them not being as up for this contest. So that's definately a negative against the Devils.

Finally, I want to check the same thing for Miami. The loss was certainly disappointing @ UNC last week, but it didn't take anything off the table as GT clinched the coastal invite to the ACC title clash. Miami is still playing for a bowl slot and there base doesn't travel well so they need as many wins in conference as possible to get a lucrative invite. I'm a little dubious to Shannon's motivating ability as this squad tanked down the stretch last year, but too many other things as mentioned above point to making a play on the Canes. For these reasons I will put a medium play on Miami this week:

*** Miami Hurricanes -19.5

 

[jimmyshivers]

Voice,

I've been a coinflip all season, so don't let who I like scare you


J-Wayne,

Just posted my thoughts on the Duke game, and I'm inclined to agree with you on NC State. Wolfpack have struggled lately but its a decent match-up for them and VT has really struggled to put anyone away since they fell out of the spotlight. Leaning to taking the points, and as with any NCS game, the over.

Hndfl, Cornhuska, awnp

Glad to hear that you guys like it too. Hopefully were all seeing the same right things here. I feel I've got a good read on this one and I hope it hits for us..

 

[jimmyshivers]

Note: the 2nd paragraph in post 12 was incomplete. It should read..

Secondly, I'm looking at Duke's form and motivation. After rallying late against UVA they have been demolished twice (not covering DD spreads @ home or in a rivalry game) and really haven't shown very much fight. Also if you look at their 3 conference wins they were against arguably the 3 worst teams in the league so perhaps the were the beneficiary of friendly scheduling. The offense has been very flat really since beating NC State, and will be incredibly one dimensional against this talented Miami D. Add into that some injuries on both lines killing this teams depth and you have to wonder if they can hang for 60 minutes. There also eliminated from bowl contention after the blow-out disappointment last week and the campus focus has already shifted full tilt to basketball. They have a winnable big 4 game next week against WF so I could see them not being as up for this contest. So that's definately a negative against the Devils.

 

[What'sthegoodword]

Jimmy... I really like the UNC play, and have been waiting on this one myself... I think they win this outright....

BOL!

GW

 

[mws]

Finally, I want to check the same thing for Miami. The loss was certainly disappointing @ UNC last week, but it didn't take anything off the table....

Miami people thought they were in the running for an at-large BCS bid, so there is some disappointment after last week's loss. However, Duke is pretty banged up, including injuries to both Lewis and Renfree.

 

[jimmyshivers]

GW,

Glad to be on the same side in this one with you, when we match up its usually been a winner.

mws,

With two losses in the ACC, that likely wasn't going to happen, especially as poorly as Miami travels. The defense is getting some guys back here and like you said, Duke has some new injuries, including both QB's and several linemen on both sides of the ball. Cutcliffe has had a thin team all season and injuries hurt his squad more than they would other teams.

 

[mws]

With two losses in the ACC, that likely wasn't going to happen, especially as poorly as Miami travels.

Of course, but that's beside the point. They thought they had a shot, and they may be in letdown mode. Otherwise, I would look at Miami as a huge play.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Of course, but that's beside the point. They thought they had a shot, and they may be in letdown mode. Otherwise, I would look at Miami as a huge play.

Agreed that motivation is the big question mark about backing the Hurricanes here. I would argue that Duke has less motivation after their downward spiral, stockpiling injuries and recent elimination from bowl contention. Still, to go huge on a team to cover this kind of number in conference you would want to feel confident that your boys are going to be ready to play. I'm not confident in that they will but I like enough of the other factors on this one to make a medium play on the Hurricanes. BOL to you if you play it and thanks for sharing your thoughts. Motivation is important at this time of year and I'm looking for all feedback towards who will and wont show up in a given contest.

 

[jimmyshivers]

**** Maryland - Florida State Under 59

I know, I know, FSU and Overs have been a match made in heaven. I think this is a tough spot to play an over this week for the Noles though for a couple of reasons. First, its a game with two back-up quarterbacks both coming off making their first career starts. Robinson looked terrible against VT, as most rookies are bound to do, and they struggled to move the ball all day. Manuel looked better against a surprisingly unprepared Wake team but still got a ton of help from his defense for a change. I don't trust two 2nd string, inexperienced quarterbacks to lead us to a shootout here.

If this game is going over its going to be because of Florida State, so lets focus on them. FSU was able to use the run to set up the pass last week, running all over Wake to let Manuel get comfortable and spread the ball around. Maryland is actually a decent run team, only allowing 3.0 ypc in conference games and 113 yards per game on the ground. The secondary has been their Achilles Heel all season, allowing 64% passing and 280 ypg over the same metric. So if this number has any chance it has to come from Manuel having a big day. My concern here is that this is a tougher situation for Manuel, its his first home game as the starter with a bowl bid on the line. Florida is looming next week so they have to get their win this week and he and the crowd knows it. There was no pressure on him last week as most people (including myself) thought that this FSU team was finished, so he could go out and just play his game.

Defensively FSU has been terrible all season but I'm hoping for this D to get excited to go against a very weak Maryland offense. With a bowl bid on the line I'd like to think its a situation for these guys to get geeked up to look good for once and to get pshyched for the Florida game next week.

Probably not going to play the side; I like Maryland but they have probably quit and FSU needs this game to go bowling. I'm expecting some defensive intensity against this bad UMD offense and that coupled with the inexperience at QB for FSU should keep this game well under the total.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

excellent thoughts jimmy on Miami...I completely agree...

 

[jimmyshivers]

excellent thoughts jimmy on Miami...I completely agree...

Love to hear it mr pags (<)<. We are both overdue for a breakout weekend bud