A Well-Seasoned 2011 College Footballl Preview and Summary of 2010 Season along with Scratch Paper for the 2011 Season

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SEC East Overall

Based on how good each team is and NOT the predicted finish

1. South Carolina
2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Tennessee
5. Kentucky
6. Vanderbilt

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]SEC West Overall

Based on how good each team is and NOT the predicted finish

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Arkansas
4. Auburn
5. Mississippi State
6. Ole Miss

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Offenses

1. Arkansas
The offense was devastating last season finishing ninth in the nation in total yards, fourth in passing and 17th in scoring. Even with the early departure of Ryan Mallett to the NFL, the offense could be even stronger if the line can come together right away. The Hogs had the same starting five up front for all 13 games, and now they have to replace three players and have to deal with some major position battles to find the right combination. Tyler Wilson is more than ready to be the star of the passing show, and he should be brilliant if he gets time. An argument could be made that the stable of running backs, led by Knile Davis, is the deepest (and possibly the biggest) in America, and if the receiving corps isn’t college football’s best, it’s in the team photo.

2. Alabama
3. South Carolina
4. LSU
5. Florida
6. Auburn
7. Tennessee
8. Ole Miss
9. Mississippi State
10. Georgia
11. Kentucky
12. Vanderbilt

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Quarterbacks

1. Georgia
Aaron Murray should be an All-SEC performer, partly because he’s that good and partly because there aren’t any other obvious choices going into the year. Christian LeMay is a big-time talent who’ll soon be the franchise, and Hutson Mason is good enough to start if needed.

2. Arkansas
3. South Carolina
4. Florida
5. Mississippi State
6. Tennessee
7. Alabama
8. Auburn
9. LSU
10. Ole Miss
11. Vanderbilt
12. Kentucky

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Running Backs

1. Auburn
If Michael Dyer and Onterio McCalebb can both stay healthy, they should put up big numbers, but they have to prove they can do it for a full season and with everyone keying on them. The spotlight is on, and they have a lot of production to fill with the loss of Cam Newton. They’ll be great, Tre Mason will play his role, and the Tigers should be among the SEC’s leaders in rushing.

2. Alabama
3. Arkansas
4. South Carolina
5. LSU
6. Florida
7. Mississippi State
8. Ole Miss
9. Vanderbilt
10. Tennessee
11. Georgia
12. Kentucky

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Receivers

1. Arkansas
The Hogs have a world of talent, several options, and all the tools across the board to be a destructive force. You know you’re phenomenal when a Cobi Hamilton or a Jarius Wright might be a backup or Greg Childs could be a No. 4 as he’s trying to get back to 100%. If Chris Gragg can be a 35-to-40 catch tight end, the passing game will be truly unstoppable. There might not be a sure-thing No. 1 NFL target in the group, but together, this group is loaded with speed, size, and enough good players to take turns burning opposing secondaries. Who’s going to be the star this week? Spin the wheel and you’ll have a good shot of getting the right guy.

2. LSU
3. South Carolina
4. Alabama
5. Tennessee
6. Florida
7. Auburn
8. Mississippi State
9. Kentucky
10. Georgia
11. Ole Miss
12. Vanderbilt

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Offensive Lines

1. Ole Miss
Years of fantastic recruiting for the offensive front from the former coaching staff paid off last year, and now the results should be special. Partly because the offense didn’t throw on a regular basis and partly because Jeremiah Masoli was mobile, but the pass protection was strong and the front five paved the way for a great year from the ground game. With most of the key parts returning, there’s reason to be excited. Bradley Sowell and Bobby Massie are terrific tackles to work around, and the interior isn’t anything to blow off. With bulk, experience, and talent, expect a special year for the team’s biggest strength.

2. Kentucky
3. Alabama
4. LSU
5. Tennessee
6. Georgia
7. Florida
8. Auburn
9. Mississippi State
10. South Carolina
11. Vanderbilt
12. Arkansas

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Defenses

1. Alabama
The 2010 Alabama defense lost the Butkus Award winner (Rolando McClain), three NFL-caliber defensive backs, a mountain of a nose tackle in Terrence Cody, and only returned three starters. How massive was the drop-off after finishing second in the nation in total defense and scoring defense? The Tide finished last year fifth in the country in yards allowed and third in scoring defense. Granted, the consistency wasn’t always there, but whatever … the production was outstanding. The talent level is off the charts, especially in the defensive back seven where Dont’a Hightower might be the nation’s best linebacker if it’s not his running mate, C.J. Mosley. The secondary has an embarrassment of riches led by safety Mark Barron and corner Dre Kirkpatrick, who should both be in the NFL right now, along with at least four other Tide defensive backs. The front three doesn’t have a Marcell Dareus, but it’s big, tough, and won’t be moved, while Courtney Upshaw will be the pass rusher in a hybrid JACK position. In all, eight starters are back on Kirby Smart’s D, and it’ll be a stunner if it doesn’t finish among the top five in the country again, if not No. 1 overall.

2. Georgia
3. LSU
4. South Carolina
5. Florida
6. Arkansas
7. Kentucky
8. Auburn
9. Mississippi State
10. Tennessee
11. Ole Miss
12. Vanderbilt

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Defensive Lines

1. South Carolina
The defensive front was terrific last year at getting to the quarterback helping the team finish seventh in the nation, and first in the SEC, in sacks with a school-record 41. With a good blend of talented veterans and bright new stars, the line should be a terror in the backfield yet again. At this point, the USC line reloads in a hurry, and it did so with flair with the latest recruiting class. The line was very talented last year, but it was very young. It grew up in a hurry and was among the best in the nation at getting into the backfield, and it should be even stronger and more dangerous with Jadeveon Clowney entering the picture. Consider it a major disappointment if this group doesn’t help USC finish in the top ten in sacks and top 15 in tackles for loss, but the key will be if the tackles hold up. The line was great against the run last year, and it should be more than fine again.

2. Florida
3. Georgia
4. Alabama
5. LSU
6. Arkansas
7. Auburn
8. Ole Miss
9. Mississippi State
10. Tennessee
11. Vanderbilt
12. Kentucky

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Linebackers

1. Alabama
Last year the line had to replace Butkus Award winner Rolando McClain, but there wasn’t even a little bit of a drop-off in overall production. Two starters return, the backups have superstar potential, and there are more than enough options to play around with. Even though a few of the pieces of last year’s puzzle are gone, like Chavis Williams and DeQuan Menzie, the corps should be terrific. Dont’a Hightower and C.J. Mosley belong on NFL fields right now, and Courtney Upshaw has to potential to be a less-athletic Von Miller who’ll be turned loose once again. Throw in the upside of players like Trey DePriest and Adrian Hubbard, and the Tide linebackers are stunningly deep and very, very good.

2. South Carolina
3. Kentucky
4. LSU
5. Georgia
6. Florida
7. Arkansas
8. Ole Miss
9. Mississippi State
10. Vanderbilt
11. Auburn
12. Tennessee

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Secondaries

1. Alabama
The 2010 Bama secondary lost three starters to the NFL and didn’t get nearly the help from the pass rush that the 2009 defensive backs enjoyed, and the production was still terrific finishing 13th in the nation in pass defense and sixth in pass efficiency D. The inside word was that last year’s defensive backfield was even more talented than the national title version, and now that talent should combine with experience to be phenomenal. Good luck throwing on this group. Dre Kirkpatrick and Mark Barron should be on several All-America short lists, while Robert Lester is a conference all-star and DeQuan Menzie and Dee Milliner would be just about anyone else’s No. 1 corner to work a defensive backfield around. It’ll be a stunner if the Tide doesn’t finish in the top ten in America in pass defense.

2. LSU
3. Georgia
4. Kentucky
5. Florida
6. Mississippi State
7. Vanderbilt
8. Arkansas
9. Auburn
10. South Carolina
11. Tennessee
12. Ole Miss

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Special Teams

1. Georgia
After improving the coverage teams in a big way, the special teams became dominant last year. The kicking game will be phenomenal again and the return game will be explosive. It’ll be a shocker if the Dawgs don’t have the best special teams in the SEC, if not the country. There are kicking tandems out there with as much experience, but punter Drew Butler and placekicker Blair Walsh were the best 1-2 punch last year and they will be again. Georgia has a huge advantage here.

2. Ole Miss
3. Vanderbilt
4. Alabama
5. LSU
6. Arkansas
7. Florida
8. Mississippi State
9. Auburn
10. Tennessee
11. Kentucky
12. South Carolina

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WAC Overall

Based on how good each team is and NOT the predicted finish

1. Nevada
2. Fresno State
3. Hawaii
4. Louisiana Tech
5. Idaho
6. Utah State
7. San Jose State
8. New Mexico State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Offenses


1. Nevada
The offense went from being quirky and productive under head coach Chris Ault and offensive coordinator Cameron Norcross, to something truly special. With Ault handling the passing game and Norcross dealing with the ground attack, the Wolf Pack finished fourth in the nation in total offense and eighth in scoring. Now the attack has to replace QB Colin Kaepernick, RB Vai Taua, TE Virgil Green, and all-star OG John Bender, along with two other starters. The line should be solid with three returning starters, while the running game should continue to be nasty with Mike Ball, Lampford Mark, and others ready to form a dangerous rotation. The air attack should be even stronger with QB Tyler Lantrip a strong, accurate passing prospect, and with Rishard Matthews one of the WAC’s best receivers, there could be more happening through the air even with the loss of Brandon Wimberly, who suffered a gunshot wound this offseason and whose football career is in jeopardy.

2. Fresno State
3. Hawaii
4. Louisiana Tech
5. Idaho
6. Utah State
7. San Jose State
8. New Mexico State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Quarterbacks


1. Hawaii
It’s Hawaii. The passing attack is going to blow up. Bryant Moniz is a near-lock for WAC Player of the Year honors if he has a 2011 like his 2010, and Shane Austin is good enough to step in and shine if needed. Finding an option for 2012 would be nice, but the offense is Moniz’s to fly.

2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Idaho
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Utah State
7. New Mexico State
8. San Jose State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Running Backs


1. Nevada
While Colin Kaepernick had a lot to do with the running game over the last few years, the running backs have been fantastic with Vai Taua cranking out 4,588 yards and 45 touchdowns. Most of his work came in the last two seasons, and now it’ll take a slew of experienced backs to pick up the slack. The Wolf Pack never has a problem running the ball, and now it’s time to unleash the speedsters. Mike Ball and Lampford Mark will put up huge numbers.

2. Utah State
3. Fresno State
4. Louisiana Tech
5. San Jose State
6. Idaho
7. New Mexico State
8. Hawaii

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Receivers


1. Hawaii
Lose a few star receivers, fill in the gaps with new ones, Greg Salas and Kealoha Pilares were unstoppable as the team’s top two targets, and No. 4 receiver Rodney Bradley and his 48 catches will also be missed. However, there’s talent coming back and the system will take care of things. Salas might have been a legitimate NFL receiver, but the numbers and production will come from the new targets. It just might take a little bit of time. Royce Pollard and Billy Ray Stutzmann have to steady and reliable, but at least two more receivers have to take on big roles right away. Several players will get the chance.

2. Fresno State
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Nevada
5. Utah State
6. Idaho
7. San Jose State
8. New Mexico State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Offensive Lines


1. Nevada
Partly because of the offensive style and partly because the line was really that good, the Nevada line finished 12th in the nation in sacks allowed and paved the way for the nation’s third-best ground game. Three starters return, and while work needs to be done on the strongside, the production should keep on coming with good size and nice prospects. “The Union” - the nickname for the O line – continues to be a machine, and now three starters are back with the two open spots certain to be ably filled. The line was terrific in pass protection and was peerless at handling the Pistol offense for the ground game.

2. Fresno State
3. Louisiana Tech
4. Hawaii
5. Utah State
6. Idaho
7. New Mexico State
8. San Jose State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Defenses


1. Nevada
All the attention was paid to the great offense and the big-time numbers the attack put up, but the defense did its part, too, finishing third in the WAC in yards allowed and 31st in the nation in scoring D. The Wolf Pack tried really, really hard to improve the defense over the years, and last year it finally happened with everything starting to come together. The potential is there for the defense to be the best in the league, helped by a strong back seven and a veteran secondary that should be all over the field, but a pass rush needs to develop. It all starts up front, but losing Dontay Moch off the end will be a problem, and Ryan Coulson will be missed on the other side. The tackles should be a strength, and they’ll need to get into the backfield on a regular basis.

2. Louisiana Tech
3. Fresno State
4. Hawaii
5. Idaho
6. San Jose State
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Defensive Lines


1. Nevada
The Wolf Pack has to replace Dontay Moch, a special athlete who blew into the backfield for 8.5 sacks and 22 tackles for loss with 64 tackles. Also gone is Ryan Coulson, a 14-game starter on the other side who came up with 3.5 sacks and 8.5 tackles for loss. Both tackles are back and the Nevada coaches always seem to find ways to get into the backfield, but it’s still asking a lot to finish 18th in the nation in run defense and 24th in sacks. Brett Roy is great at making big things happen and he’s terrific at getting to the quarterback. Zack Madonick is an unsung rock on the inside who gums up the works.

2. Louisiana Tech
3. Fresno State
4. Hawaii
5. Idaho
6. San Jose State
7. New Mexico State
8. Utah State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Linebackers


1. Louisiana Tech
The potential is there for this to be the team’s biggest strength if everyone can stay healthy. There are two returning starters and promising options to form the depth and fill in the open spot, and this group should be able to clean up most of the messes left by the front line. Adrien Cole and Jay Dudley forms one of the best linebacking duos in the WAC, while Dusty Rust and Solomon Randle give the Bulldogs a fantastic top four. Throw in the JUCO transfers, and the Bulldogs are loaded with players who know what they’re doing.

2. Nevada
3. Fresno State
4. Hawaii
5. San Jose State
6. Idaho
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Secondaries


1. Nevada
Teams bombed away to try to keep up the pace with the tremendous Wolf Pack offense, and the secondary gives up a ton of yards, but it didn’t give up a ton of big passes and finished second in the WAC in pass efficiency defense. Three starters return with the only loss Doyle Miller, a 55-tackle corner who was good, but isn’t irreplaceable. The safety tandem of Marlon Johnson and Duke Williams are solid, and Isaiah Frey is one of the WAC’s best corners.

2. Fresno State
3. Idaho
4. San Jose State
5. Louisiana Tech
6. Hawaii
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State

[FONT=verdana, arial, sans serif]Special Teams


1. Nevada
Improved over the last few years, the Nevada special teams have gone from a major problem to a strength … at times. The kicking game is a question mark and PK Anthony Martinez has to find some semblance of range, but the return game, thanks to Rishard Matthews, should be terrific and the athleticism and focus is there for the coverage teams to do more

2. Louisiana Tech
3. Fresno State
4. Idaho
5. Hawaii
6. San Jose State
7. Utah State
8. New Mexico State


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Here is a little mini-situational I just created for teams playing their 2nd game (keep in mind I just use these as a guide to steer me towards a team or away from a team and I still cap the game based on several factors)


Play ON GAME 2 Home Favorites from -10 to -27 OFF a SU Home Win where they won by 40 or more points, but DID NOT shutout their Opponent

This simple, but effective situational has gone

28-7 ATS since 1980 (4-1 ATS in 2010, 1-1 ATS in 2009, 11-0 ATS 2005-2008

MRT--- 16-2 ATS
LST ----11 W
CST-- --1W

Last year's winners ATS (4-1 ATS in 2010) were ................Alabama over Penn State, California over Colorado, Houston over UTEP, Texas A&M over La. Tech,
the one loser was Okie State who won, but didn't cover against Troy

Logic of the situational: Teams starts the seson at Home with a blowout win and carries over the momentum next week while staying at Home.

Key Tightener That Increases the Win % of the situational: Shutouts erase some line value in certain spots. Here, our Play ON Team is off a big, blowout win, but not a shutout which helps the line value some.

wash st??
 

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wash st??


They were one of my leads this week, but I DID NOT play them after capping the game, I don't trust them laying that many points and QB Tuel is out. As bad as UNLV is, I just don't trust Wazzu. Best of luck if you decide to play it.
 

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WELL-SEASONED's Intriguing Team for 2011: Cincinnati

This team was bi-polar at times last year. They had the #1 Big East Offense by far yardage-wise and lost to Oklahoma only by 2 points. Other games they were just blown out. This is the 2nd year for the new coach who took over for Kelly after he left for Notre Dame. He had success at Central Michigan (while Kelly was at Cincinnati) so this team is one of the most intriguing IMO to see what they do this year in 2011. They open up against Austin Peay and then travel to Knoxville to take on the Vols. It should be noted that highly respected QB Zach Collaros is back along with Isiah Pead who are both Seniors. Obviously, the defense must improve, but ALL 11 starters return on defense. Whether that is good or bad remains to be seen. An intriguing team I must say.


They opened the year with a nice 72-10 and covered the outlaw line easily. However, by the time the lines came out I already had my plays final so I missed out on it my Cincy boyz. Now they travel to a SEC Team on the Road this week and I was hoping to get more points, but that didn't happen so I passed on them this week.
 

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