A Well-Seasoned 2011 College Footballl Preview and Summary of 2010 Season along with Scratch Paper for the 2011 Season

[Well-Seasoned]

#10----------Indiana --------------Don't let the early schedule fool you here with the cupcakes early. While they should have a decent start due to the easy schedule, they will fall back near the bottom of the conference once
Big Ten play starts IMO and they come in as my Preseason #10th worse BCS Team.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#9---------------Rutgers---------------------------The Big East looks like the toughest conference to predict from first to last IMO out of all of them, but I'm putting Rutgers on the list depsite them having 7 Home Games this year.
IMO, it was RB Ray Rice who was key to taking them to the next level (one year they had 11 wins), but he hasn't played there in awhile and in the last three years Rutgers has seen their Big East conference wins go from 5 to 3 to 1 which was last year. Some will label them a "Mission Team" since they are coming off a losing season after having five winnng seasons before that ,but I need to see alot more from this team before I can trust them ATS at this point.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#8-----------Colorado--------------------Colorado is now in the Pac-12 and even has Ohio State on the ROAD on top of that. In addition, Colorado is playing a 13-game regular season schedule. Even worse they have ZERO byes in that 13-week span so basically no rest. Throw in a suspect defense and a brand new coach and they come in as my Preseason #8 Worse BCS Conference Team.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#7------------------Iowa State-------------------------While they had their moments last year (wins against Texas and Texas Tech, 1 Point loss to Nebraska) this is still a team that lost by 20 to Colorado, got shutout 52-0 by Oklahoma, and gave up 68 Points to Utah. Maybe they get up for a big upset like last year, but this team is erratic and not that good IMO.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#6----------------------------Vanderbilt----------------------------------Vandy finished last year with 7 straight SU and ATS Losses. However, they do return 21 starters (don't know if that is good or bad at this point), have a new coach who is trying to change the losing culture (recruting very well early), and play in the SEC. Those factors combined keep me from making them lower on the list despite them losing to a team last year I have projected worse for 2011. I'll just give them the benefit of the doubt and say they quit in their Final game of 2010 LOL.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#5 --------------------------------------------Washington State------------------------------This is actually an improvement for Washington State to be ranked the 5th worse BCS Conference team believe it or not compared to previous years. They actually covered 6 out of their last 8 games last year so a pulse was shown. They open up with Home games against I-AA Weber State and a horrible UNLV team to start the year so early confidence is needed for them, but I still don't trust them at this point. Last year I took a team that was 0-3 ATS (3-0 SU) and layed 21 points AT Wazzu and covered quite easy after an explosion of points in a short period of time.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#4 ---------------------------------------------------Duke---------------------------------------Like Washington State, this is actually an improvement for them to be ranked as the 4th worse BCS conference team compared to other years. They also covered 6 out of their last 8 last year and the offense was pretty decent. However, the defense is horrible and Duke will be thinking more about replacing Kyrie Irving, Kyle Singler, and Nolan Smith.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#3------------------------------------------------------Minnesota---------------------------------------This team had 2 SU Double-Digit Dog Wins to end the season. Nice way to end, but I don't like them. They get an easy schedule after Southern California in Non-Conference, but I don't see them being a factor in Big Ten play. For starters, they gave up almost 200 Yards Per Game on the ground last year which is not good, especially in the Big 10. The defense would have been alot worse on passing yards allowed IMO, but it wasn't as bad since teams could just easily hand the ball off and run right over them. The pass rush and the secondary is highly suspect too IMO. On offense, they are replacing QB Adam Weber with a former Wide Receiver. Throw in a new coach and this team will be competing for the Big Ten cellar IMO.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#2--------------------------------------------------------------Wake Forest-----------------------------------------Last year, Wake gave up 68 Points to Stanford and 62 to Maryland, yes Maryland. They got blown out in many other games as well as shutout by Florida State. Both the offense and defense were bad statistically. Not a good formula. They bring back alot of starters on both sides of the ball, but I'm not sure that is a good thing after watching this team last year in some games. I don't see them getting out of the cellar in their division.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

#1 -----------------------------------------------Kansas-------------------------------------------------------Losing to North Dakota State was no accident. They gave up 59 Points to Kansas State while only scoring 7. They gave up 55 Points to Baylor while only scoring 7. Both Kansas State and Baylor were BELOW average defensively last year. This basically means they had no offense and no defense. They also gave up 64 points to Oklahoma State and didn't even show up for both rivalry games (Kansas-Missouri, Kansas-Kansas State) which is even more pathetic. This team was in a BCS Bowl Game (Orange Bowl) not long ago. How quickly they have fallen. They fired the guy (Mangino) who took them out of the dumpster and even won a BCS Bowl Game (Orange Bowl). Now they are back where they were Pre-Mangino with a coach whose biggest coaching accomplishment was getting to the International Bowl while at Buffalo despite getting throttled by UCONN 38-20 in that game. This team looked really horrible in some of the games I saw them last year and I don't see much changing this year.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Well-Seasoned's PRESEASON Top 10 WORSE BCS Teams

1.Kansas

2.Wake Forest

3.Minnesota

4.Duke

5.Washington State

6.Vanderbilt

7.Iowa State

8.Colorado

9.Indiana

10.Rutgers

Note..................Switched Rutgers and Indiana due to Rutgers being selected as "Team Most Likely To Prove Me Wrong"

TEAM MOST LIKELY TO PROVE ME WRONG: RUTGERS

WHY? RUTGERS plays in the Big East which seems highly unpredictable at this point from first to last so anything can happen.
In addition, they get 7 Home games and are coming off their 1st losing season in 6 years so they may be trying to get back on track.


All other opinions welcome.


Tell me which team on the list is most likely to prove me wrong and then tell me why with reasons to support your claim.



.........It's only Preseason so part of the fun is debate. Once the season starts, it is ATS and more serious each week, but these are my Top 10 Preseason Worse BCS Teams.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Next, I will look at the Top 10 teams with great SU OR ATS or BOTH Records last year or and will predict which ones that won't match it in 2011

 

[Well-Seasoned]

None of these teams won't be in any particular order. I'll say they will REGRESS though.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Auburn 10-4 ATS , 14-0 SU in 2010

I'll go out on the limb and say Auburn won't be 14-0 SU this year LOL. They have lost piles of players, including Cammy Cam Camry. As far as ATS goes, they will be a dog more than a favorite, but 10-4 ATS will be tough to match IMO even as an Underdog.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Ohio State 10-2 ATS, 12-1 SU in 2010

No Pryor. No Tressel. Players suspended. Matching a 10-2 ATS ,12-1 SU record is not likely to happen.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Arizona State 10-2 ATS, 6-6 SU in 2010

SU Wise, I have NO Problem with Arizona State since they only won 6 games last year. ATS Wise I can't see them matching 10 Wins ATS again. Ironically, the only time I played against them I beat them with California 50-17 in my only 3 STAR play of the regular season last year. Let us investigate who they really beat last year Straight-Up. Portland State? Northern Arizona? Washington? Washington State? UCLA? Arizona? Not that impressive. Beating Arizona was a rivalry game so they don't get much credit for that either. Granted, the Pac-12 South is pretty weak since Southern California is excluded from the Pac-12 Title game, so they do have a chance to make it there, but I don't see them matching 10 ATS wins.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

I'll break it up between 5 teams going down ATS from last year and 5 teams going up ATS from last year IMO for a total of 10 so both sides will be seen

Currently, 5 Teams going down ATS from last year (3 Listed so far)

Auburn 10-4 ATS
Ohio State 10-2 ATS
Arizona State 10-2 ATS

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Illinois 9-4 ATS, 7-6 SU

Do we really expect the Zooker to match 9 ATS wins????? Let's take a look at the Zooker's ATS Record at Illinois year-by-year

2005= 4-7 ATS
2006= 5-6 ATS
2007= 7-6 ATS
2008= 4-8 ATS
2009= 4-8 ATS


At Florida the Zooker was

2002= 4-9 ATS
2003= 5-7 ATS
2004= 7-5 ATS

Basically, last year was Zook's best record ever ATS by 2 more ATS Wins!! I DO NOT see Zook matching his 9 ATS Wins last year.

It should be noted that Ron Zook was 8-16 ATS as a Favorite at FLORIDA and is 13-22 ATS as a Favorite at Illinois even counting the good run last year ATS.

Combine these two and you get 21-38 ATS when Ron Zook is chalk, ouch.

Zook's best role seems to be a Road Dog (6-1 ATS at Florida, 12-7 ATS at Illinois, including a 11-2 ATS run last 13)

So basically this just confirms what some knew which is if you are going to lay points with Zook, do a little more research just to make sure you really like them that week in that spot.

Consequently, I don't see Illinois getting 9 ATS Wins this year.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Central Florida 11-3 ATS, 11-3 SU in 2010

It will be tough for Central Florida to match last year's 11 ATS Wins IMO. I'm fully aware that they are the only team in Conference-USA that played great defense last year, but they only return 4 starters on that side of the ball this year in 2011.
O'Leary has done a great coaching job there and their ATS wins have increased from 6 in 2008 to 9 in 2009 to 11 ATS wins last year. It will be very tough to match 11 ATS wins in 2011 as I'm sure Vegas will inflate them even more in conference play this year. Beating a SEC Team in a bowl game last year will only inflate them more in a weak Conference-USA where they are known as the conference bully.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

So here are FIVE TEAMS that I think will have trouble matching 2010's ATS Wins

Auburn= 2010 ATS WINS = 10 , projected to go down in 2011

Ohio State= 2010 ATS Wins =10, projected to go down in 2011

Arizona State=2010 ATS Wins=10, projected to go down in 2011

Illinois= 2010 ATS Wins=9. projected to go down in 2011

Central Florida= 2010 ATS Wins= 11, projected to go down in 2011