A Well-Seasoned 2011 College Footballl Preview and Summary of 2010 Season along with Scratch Paper for the 2011 Season

[Well-Seasoned]

Back for another college football season in 2011.

I summarize the 2010 season on post #19 in my last thread where I had an active bet.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=843292&highlight

(also had Green Bay in the Super Bowl in my Super Bowl thread)


2010 was a good season overall since I distinguished plays well with 2 stars and 3 star plays. Bowl games I'll have to come up with something brand new although I was smart enough to drop down to 1 stars on them since the confidence was lower. IMO, the situationals are weaker in the bowls since there is a bigger layoff and not the instant public reaction to recent events like you get in conference play. Consequently, I will be trying something brand new in bowl games this year and it will have nothng to do with my regular season style.Conference games or October is usually my strongest area and is where most of the 2 star and 3 plays came from. Hopefully, I can get more of these in September.


I'll be using this thread as scratch paper too and will probably share one or two situational systems for everyone. I don't blindly play a situational ATS, but I will use them to guide me away or towards a team that I somewhat like combined with several other factors. In general, there are around several factors I look at consistently although each will have different weight depending on the circumstances that week or the game.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

From another thread I had about O-Lines


so my 5 Top O-Lines in no particular order are

Alabama--- Probably the best on pure talent

Okie State (I really like this group, experience, talent, QB returns, Blackmon, they should be good despite Dana leaving for West Virginia)

Iowa (they are corn-fed and anchored by the coach's kid along with a 1st Round NFL draft pick, but haven't seen them anywhere else on people's list because they are replacing piles of players on both sides of the ball and they are getting punished for that, blame the QB, skill players, or defense if they struggle)

Northern Illinois (2 NFL Offensive Line Prospects believe it or not in the later rounds)


Miami--------Tremendous depth at the O-Line along with talent


(Darkhorse is UAB)---Ty Bounce says UAB's O-Line so that looks like a good under-the-radar one.
​

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Preseason Rankings of College Football Teams (Ranked from #35-#120)

here are teams ranked 35-120 by the Orlando Sentinel which is better than just a Top 25 IMO which everyone does anyway and most here already know who the top teams are



No. 35 Pittsburgh
No. 36 North Carolina
No. 37 Michigan
No. 38 Southern Miss
No. 39 Connecticut
No. 40 BYU
No. 41 Miami of Ohio
No. 42 Navy
No. 43 Maryland
No. 44 Nevada
No. 45 USF
No. 46 Northwestern
No. 47 Hawaii
No. 48 East Carolina
No. 49 Tennessee
No. 50 Northern Illinois
No. 51 Washington
No. 52 San Diego State
No. 53 Tulsa
No. 54 USC
No. 55 Clemson
No. 56 Baylor
No. 57 Houston
No. 58 Texas Tech
No. 59 Arizona
No. 60 Illinois
No. 61 Georgia Tech
No. 62 Cincinnati
No. 63 Kentucky
No. 64 California
No. 65 Ole Miss
No. 66 Troy
No. 67 Kansas State
No. 68 Oregon State
No. 69 Boston College
No. 70 UCLA
No. 71 Syracuse
No. 72 Colorado
No. 73 Temple
No. 74 Army
No. 75 FIU
No. 76 Middle Tennessee
No. 77 Toledo
No. 78 Fresno State
No. 79 Arkansas State
No. 80 Ohio
No. 81 Kent State
No. 82 Western Michigan
No. 83 Idaho
No. 84 Purdue
No. 85 Iowa State
No. 86 Virginia
No. 87 Louisville
No. 88 UTEP
No. 89 Colorado State
No. 90 Louisiana-Monroe
No. 91 Kansas
No. 92 Marshall
No. 93 Louisiana Tech
No. 94 Wyoming
No. 95 Utah State
No. 96 Minnesota
No. 97 Wake Forest
No. 98 Indiana
No. 99 Duke
No. 100 Vanderbilt
No. 101 Ball State
No. 102 UAB
No. 103 Central Michigan
No. 104 FAU
No. 105 Eastern Michigan
No. 106 Louisiana
No. 107 Rutgers
No. 108 Washington State
No. 109 Rice
No. 110 Bowling Green
No. 111 Tulane
No. 112 UNLV
No. 113: Buffalo
No. 114: New Mexico State
No. 115 Western Kentucky
No. 116 Akron
No. 117 North Texas
No. 118 Memphis
No. 119 New Mexico
No. 120 San Jose State

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Two teams that I root for as a fan are ranked #61 and #119 on the list. #119 ??? Ouch. Funny part is the coach's buyout is so big that he is back this year and possibly next year. Hopefully, he turns it around and shows a pulse this year.

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Good work. Looking forward to seeing more. My rankings certainly differ from the Orlando Sentinal, but we shall see what develops during the season.

 

[Albatross]

Two teams that I root for as a fan are ranked #61 and #119 on the list. #119 ??? Ouch. Funny part is the coach's buyout is so big that he is back this year and possibly next year. Hopefully, he turns it around and shows a pulse this year.

What's going on with GT and the ACC title?

 

[Well-Seasoned]

What's going on with GT and the ACC title?

I guess they might lose it even though I already watched them win it in 2009 LOL. On probation through 2015 due to men's football and basketball infractions.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Here is a little mini-situational I just created for teams playing their 2nd game (keep in mind I just use these as a guide to steer me towards a team or away from a team and I still cap the game based on several factors)


Play ON GAME 2 Home Favorites from -10 to -27 OFF a SU Home Win where they won by 40 or more points, but DID NOT shutout their Opponent

This simple, but effective situational has gone

28-7 ATS since 1980 (4-1 ATS in 2010, 1-1 ATS in 2009, 11-0 ATS 2005-2008

MRT--- 16-2 ATS
LST ----11 W
CST-- --1W

Last year's winners ATS (4-1 ATS in 2010) were ................Alabama over Penn State, California over Colorado, Houston over UTEP, Texas A&M over La. Tech,
the one loser was Okie State who won, but didn't cover against Troy

Logic of the situational: Teams starts the seson at Home with a blowout win and carries over the momentum next week while staying at Home.

Key Tightener That Increases the Win % of the situational: Shutouts erase some line value in certain spots. Here, our Play ON Team is off a big, blowout win, but not a shutout which helps the line value some.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Teams with new coaches for 2011, this puts a handful of them in a few play against situationalsdepending on the tighteners, lines and other factors

 

[Well-Seasoned]

2011 Teams with New Coaches

Arkansas State

Ball State

Colorado

UCONN

Florida

Indiana

Kent State

Lousiana

Maryland

Miami-Florida

Miami-Ohio

Michigan

Minnesota

North Texas

Northern Illinois

Ohio State

Pittsburgh

San Diego State

Stanford

Temple

Tulsa

Vanderbilt

West Virginia

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Minnesota, North Texas are in my Sector 1 (I will NOT play any of these teams in Week 1 due to some things, better spots available

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Here is another mini-situational that I just created. Obviously, you can get different results with different tighteners ,but the base part remains the same (which is the most important part IMO), just like before use the situational as a guide to steer away or towards a team after looking at several other factors, I usually have about 30+ situationals (revolving around) that generate leads and then I cap those leads and several of my best ones that I have used for several years that are proven have names that I gave them

Here is one for teams playing Game 3.

Play AGAINST Game 3 Conference Road Favorites OFF BB ATS Wins if their Opponent (today) was favored by 3 or more last game

Very simple you would think, but surprisingly this one mini-situational I just created is 19-1 ATS. This one doesn't pop often due to the low sample size, but it might have a play this year since last year it didn't. Remember when USC traveled to Oregon State. They were in this unfortunate situation and lost Straight-Up as a 24 Point Favorite back in 2008. It appeared twice in 2009 and both Road Favorites again choked it up after Miami got blown out AT Virginia Tech while a highly touted Ole Miss team that year lost AT South Carolina

19-1 ATS since 1980
MRT 19-1 ATS
LST 16W
CST 3W

2009 Record 2-0 ATS
2008 Record 1-1 ATS
1980-2007 Record 16-0 ATS

The only Road Favorite to overcome this strong situatonal and win ATS was Urban Meyer and Florida in 2008 when they won at Tennessee. Great teams overcome systems/situationals no matter how strong the odds they are facing and the
2008 FLORIDA GATORS went on to win the national title that year. This only illustrates that point. As far as SU the Road Favorite is 8-11-1 SU, but 2008 Florida is the only team to WIN and COVER in the situational. Thus, it is 19-1 ATS when you play against the Road Favorite here.

I shared two situationals that I created. Obviously, my better and more proven ones are in conference play since those are where my Named Systems are, but these two have some decent numbers so hopefully they can help find an edge for future reference despite me not uisng them yet since they are new to me (obviously, I'm biased towards the situationals that have helped me win before which is a reason why they have names) Use it as a guide to steer away or toward a team while looking at other factors.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Teams that lost SU as a Favorite in their Bowl Game last year (scratch paper)

Hawaii
Missouri
West Virginia
SMU
Nebraska
Georgia
Miami-Florida
South Carolina
Clemson
Middle Tenn. State

 

[doogieboy]

MRT 19-1 ATS
LST 16W
CST 3W
What does MRT,LST, CST mean...help this dummy out please.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Teams that lost SU as a Favorite in their Bowl Game last year (scratch paper)

Hawaii
Missouri
West Virginia
SMU
Nebraska
Georgia
Miami-Florida
South Carolina
Clemson
Middle Tenn. State

Hawaii----------Defense gave up 60+ Points in Bowl Game , Likely to Pass on their Opener

Missouri-------No Opinion at this moment on Opener

West Virginia-------New Coach in a Rivalry Game to Start His Career, Likely to Pass on their Opener

SMU-------------No Opinion at this moment on Opener

Nebraska-------No Opinion at this moment on Opener

Georgia----------------------Don't like Boise or Georgia, should be better games on the card, Likely to PASS on this game

Miami-Florida-------No Opinion at this moment on Opener

South Carolina------No Opinion at this moment on Opener

Clemson-----------New QB and New System, Likely to PASS on their Opener

Middle Tenn. State-----Likely to PASS on their Opener

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Arkansas State, Louisiana-Lafayette, Minnesota, North Texas are in my Sector 1 (I will NOT play any of these teams in Week 1 due to some things, better spots available

Illinois
Oklahoma State
Southern California
Florida International

These are the opponents of the 4 Teams on the Sector 1 List Opening Game. Will give them a stronger look. Doesn't mean I will play any of them (lines aren't even out yet LOL), but right now I'm just determining leads to study longer and also teams I don't like in Week 1.

 

[SundayTiger]

WVU never covers against Marshall.

I want to say Marshall has lost and covered for 10 years straight.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

WVU never covers against Marshall.

I want to say Marshall has lost and covered for 10 years straight.

In 2008, West Virginia won 27-3 laying 15.5. However, Marshall does have the edge covering against West Virginia despite not winning.

Don't like West Virginia with a new coach in a rivalry game despite his rep as Offensive Coordinator. Furthermore, I DO NOT like laying points in rivalry games (even if I do it is usually a smaller number which I doubt we will see here).
Just one of my hang-ups I guess LOL. Will likely pass on this game and look somewhere else on the card to see if there are better spots and opportunties. Best of luck.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Good work. Looking forward to seeing more. My rankings certainly differ from the Orlando Sentinal, but we shall see what develops during the season.

Hopefully, you have New Mexico better than #119 although I wouldn't blame you if you had them at #120. And GTECH ranked better as well hopefully. Best of luck.

 

[Well-Seasoned]

Niext in this thread I will be previewing the New Mexico LOBOS, a team that I am highly and very familiar with that is more of a basketball school (they were a high #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament in 2010)

I was 1-0 ATS in New Mexico games last year (I had them as an Underdog against New Mexico State, they should have won SU, but found a way to lose although they did cover for me), that was the only time I played them ATS last year in part because
New Mexico State sucks too)


after that......I will be previewing the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets who are in my hometown and who I have lots of connections with