A TESTED TOTALS SYSTEM............20-6 OVER 45 Day Period

[TheShotDoctor]

106 points at The Half.............

Here's to looking for UNDER 88 in THE 2nd Half to Get The Win. Damn both teams are shooting Lights Out, something they usually don't do. Plus a dozen of easy 2-3 foot put backs!


GL....we need it in The Low Scoring 2nd Half!

 

[Tulsa]

I'm on this big, too. I thought to myself...20-6!! So, here is cheers to a 30 point 4th!! Would that not be the comeback of the year for us!!! Here's to 30!!! Here's to 30!!! Hey...we'll get em tomorrow, right where it hurts...in the pocket book!!! tulsa

 

[cincy_]

After Cheeks was fired, the new coach for Portland said he would "run"

In the NBA, RUN = play no defense

They need this style this year to put fans in the seats and have an "exciting" product - even if it means they lose games.

I have made a ton the last couple of days with Portland overs - the books and the public will catch on within the next few games, I suppose (if they haven't already).

 

[LakersFan4Life]

just wasnt our night newlywed.its all good we will get em back.keep pumpin out the numbers and we will keep winning.this just means we go 20-5 from this point on =).gl ev1

 

[kidslick]

i believe there were EIGHTtechnical fouls in the game

WTF ...........EIGHT


Technical Fouls: Portland - J. Przybilla 2, S Abdurrahim, S Abdurrahim. Denver - F. Elson 2, K. Martin 1, E. Najera 1

 

[poopah]

It always makes me laugh when people come out an say they have a proven system that has worked over 45 days, a proven system is one that works over lets say at least 3 years. stop this system chasing and handicapp games individually, how can you even care about past stats of the por/den game when bothteams have new head coaches, and incase you have not noticed since cheeks left portland the blazers have been giving up points like it is going out of style and playing faster pace, that is called handicapping, systems are garbage, none of them work in the long run. not trying to bad mouth you but if you want to be successfull in sports betting you have to know every game has it's own individual story attached to it, chasing systems is basically saying I do not want to cap the games individually because it is too much work. NO PAIN NO GAIN

 

[Tulsa]

Hey, Poopoo, I'm not saying that I totally disagree with you or that you don't have a point. I would like to say that it would be really nifty if you had the kahunas to post that geniusness of yours before the game started or even before the game ended. That way, your words might carry more weight. I could have typed what you did AFTER the game!! Well, Newlywed...not knocking you, but obviously..... You doing that is like us getting to pick sides to wager on after the games. LOL tulsa

 

[TheShotDoctor]

System Games Fails...........0-1 Here...

Believe me guys, we'll get it back...never saw The style of game that was played tonight coming.


System spits out 3 Plays For Tuesday...

 

[TheShotDoctor]

Tuesday, 3-8-05

HOU/SEA OVER 194..........$1000 (10+Points Off)-12-

LA C/LA L OVER 194.5.............$1000 (10+Points Off)-10.5-

INDY/UTAH UNDER 185.................$500 (5+Points Off) -7-



BOL To All Of Us-----MR. NEWLYWED

Very Rarely have I had 3 Games Come Out in The Same Day, usually 1 or none. Only once in 45 days were there 3.

 

[TheShotDoctor]

PooPoo..................

Capping an individual game is Too Much Work???? Have you ever tried using a complex system, much, much more work & many more numbers to crunch. It often takes 2 Xanex & 10 pages of scratch paper!!!!!!!


GL To You!

 

[TheShotDoctor]

A Side Play............

Yes, using a Totals System, it gives you the Total Points expected from each team on ever aspect of that particular match-up. And from time to time it will throw out such a big difference in the Team Totals in a Match-Up that it Spits out a Side, and that happened when I ran my numbers for Tuesday. Actually a Big Side Came Out!

PHILLY is Expected to Score 112 to Golden States 96....that's a total of 208, close to the posted total of 206...a no play, but then I noticed the spread.......It is PHILLY -4, but The Total Points Difference is a Whopping 16 POINTS!

Lets Play The Side The Same Way

PHILLY -4..True Line Should Be -16 Thats 10+Points -12-

Therefore adding...........

PHILLY -4..................$1000 (10+points) -12-



I really Like This .........-4 is SOLID! And this doesn't even take in to account The Home Court Advantage, as that isn't part of my totals system, and that's what my system is based on...Totals!

 

[TheShotDoctor]

Tuesday 3-8-05 Final Plays..............

Philly -4...................$1000...-12-#off

Hou/sea Over 194....................$1000...-12-#off

Lac/la L Over 194.5.............................$1000...-10.5#off

Indy/utah Under 185......................................$500...-7-#off


Wagered $3500

 

[Baker]

Mr. NW-

I have a couple of questions for you. Do you calculate predictions for each game? What is the average difference between your final score prediction and each games final score? What is the average difference between your prediction and each games totals line?

On a side note you should think about utilizing MS Excel to alleviate any need for pen and paper calculations.

Baker

 

[LakersFan4Life]

lmao@2 xanex keep it up newlywed im with you.i got 1500 to make up haha.its all good and for people who dont believe trends etc look at the info page i wrote up where everything over a course of 2 months was 50% over 50% under except western teams playing eastern teams on the eastern floor which was up around 64% or so.thats capping each game?i agree each game has its own flavor but without a system to gage urself u cant begin to cap successfully.systems are 20 times tougher then looking at the mavs and wanting to fade them right now.see how easy that was.gl to all

 

[poopah]

Exaclty my point newlewed, eventhough GST is now a better team with the addition of Baron Davis, this is not the same GST team that you are using the stats for, they do not have Najera, Dale Davis, or claxton. When teams switch starting point guards it makes a huge difference, I hope your plays come in but it will just be because of a fluke specially in the GST/PHI game where both teams have made major changes in the past 10 days. You can throw away earlier season stats on these two teams. Good Luck

 

[dolphin]

Newlywed - you might check my post on Ego 74's thread, or my own thread on this PHI-GS game.


Minimally big fatigue, but I think there is much more

 

[Juggler]

I watched the Warriors play the Knicks 2 days ago. They have the worst interior defense I've seen in a long time. They aso like to throw up many 3 pointers so they either go hot or crap out. Probably runs in streaks but not the sign of a quality team.

As for Systems=== I followed systems that produced 60% over the course of a few years. That is nothing to sneeze at especially if you get a high number of plays. The problem with Systems is that they tend to always run their course and then go back to 50% in the long run. I expect the reason for this is the linemaker notices the trends and then adjusts the pointspread to take away the former advantage you had. For a good number of years you would show a nice profit betting against home teams (in the NBA) after they won and traveled on 1 or 2 days rest. That edge is long gone since the late 1990's. The players fatique factor hasn't changed but the odds on those games have. End of winning System. I'm sure you get my drift.

 

[dolphin]

I fully agree with the bookies' adjustments to prominent angles. However, fatigue matters more in certain cases and with certain teams more than others. The relevance of rest to Webber in particular I believe is a strong case.

While the Warriors may have interior 'D' issues, they have developed good chemistry and have woken up on the road lately, feeling confident they can take anyone who looks past them, esp. if their shooting is good.

I think the Warriors are 15-23 lately with Richardson in the lineup. I make them about a .400 quality Western team at present.

Phily, IMO, is weaker after the trade, esp. with Webber making comments already and the Phily fans barking at him. Give them credit for a .500 Eastern record. Both teams might be tweaked downward, but the 10% win differential is reasonable, again IMO.

My translation for 10% is very close to 2.5...then PHI gets credit for home court, probably 3.5. Subtract 3 for East v. West differential and you get 3. NOW add in the 6 games in 8 nights...I would subtract 1.5 for sure.

PHI 1.5 is my "fair" line...without Webber issues, PHI awful home record favored v. the West and another couple of factors I track.

Just one game...we'll hardly remember this by late tomorrow!

Dolphin

 

[cd329]

well aint this pretty strange. this guys system has 26 plays in 45 days, yet in the last 2 it has 5. When i read things like this the red flag scammer alert goes off igtime.

 

[kidslick]

wed nba lines ....fwiw


<TABLE class=GameSelectionTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=1 border=0><TBODY><TR class=o><TD> </TD><TD></TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD>Wed 3/9</TD><TD>501</TD><TD>Atlanta Hawks</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_10 name=radiox>+12 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_10 name=radiox>Over 199½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD>7:05pm</TD><TD>502</TD><TD>Boston Celtics</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_10 name=radiox>-12 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_10 name=radiox>Under 199½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD colSpan=8><CITE>NBA 03/09/05</CITE></TD></TR><TR class=o><TD>Wed 3/9</TD><TD>503</TD><TD>Orlando Magic</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_11 name=radiox>+4½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_11 name=radiox>Over 204½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=o><TD>7:05pm</TD><TD>504</TD><TD>Toronto Raptors</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_11 name=radiox>-4½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_11 name=radiox>Under 204½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD>Wed 3/9</TD><TD>505</TD><TD>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_12 name=radiox>+11 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_12 name=radiox>Over 190½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD>7:35pm</TD><TD>506</TD><TD>Detroit Pistons</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_12 name=radiox>-11 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_12 name=radiox>Under 190½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=o><TD>Wed 3/9</TD><TD>507</TD><TD>New Jersey Nets</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_13 name=radiox>-1 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_13 name=radiox>Over 181 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=o><TD>8:05pm</TD><TD>508</TD><TD>New Orleans Hornets</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_13 name=radiox>+1 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_13 name=radiox>Under 181 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD>Wed 3/9</TD><TD>511</TD><TD>Chicago Bulls</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S1_14 name=radiox>-1½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L1_14 name=radiox>Over 198 -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD> </TD></TR><TR class=e><TD>10:05pm</TD><TD>512</TD><TD>Portland Trail Blazers</TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=S2_14 name=radiox>+1½ -110</TD><TD> </TD><TD><INPUT language=javascript class=radio id=radiox onclick="return OnButtonClick()" type=radio value=L2_14 name=radiox>Under 198</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>