A sincere question......though it might seem silly

[uscmd]

Is there a single bettor, (one that plays almost every day) whose winning percentage on full games is higher than your 2H plays?

I ask because you can crunch data until its coming out of your ears, and still miss the intangibles. You cover every angle in your prep, and the team that was a solid play comes out and stinks up the place.

After watching a half, it seems you have a much better handle on which team wants it more and who has the better talent, speed and whose schemes are more on point. Data can only go so far in comparison to watching the 2 teams, on that particular day.

Case in point Ga Tech. GT was hotter, playing at home and healthier. LSU was down to qb#3, and at times looking unmotivated, particularly on defense. I looked at both teams L10 games and LSU had lost 6 straight ats and 8 of the last 9. GT was the inverse, only losing twice in their last 10.

Les Miles coached circles around GT's coach. Fake punt, onside kick and on defense they removed the option from GT's triple option.

2nd H LSU+6.5........seemed very generous.

It got me thinking about how others are doing on 2H', compared to full games.

Thanks......bol and happy new year.

 

[dayang23]

Is there a single bettor, (one that plays almost every day) whose winning percentage on full games is higher than your 2H plays?

I ask because you can crunch data until its coming out of your ears, and still miss the intangibles. You cover every angle in your prep, and the team that was a solid play comes out and stinks up the place.

After watching a half, it seems you have a much better handle on which team wants it more and who has the better talent, speed and whose schemes are more on point. Data can only go so far in comparison to watching the 2 teams, on that particular day.

Case in point Ga Tech. GT was hotter, playing at home and healthier. LSU was down to qb#3, and at times looking unmotivated, particularly on defense. I looked at both teams L10 games and LSU had lost 6 straight ats and 8 of the last 9. GT was the inverse, only losing twice in their last 10.

Les Miles coached circles around GT's coach. Fake punt, onside kick and on defense they removed the option from GT's triple option.

2nd H LSU+6.5........seemed very generous.

It got me thinking about how others are doing on 2H', compared to full games.

Thanks......bol and happy new year.

Yep, I'm a degenerate, gamble every day, and I'd have to say I don't have the exact results, but I think I win more on 2H plays (But I play second halves less than 20% of original bets. Depending on how a game is playing out, you can find tremendous value in a 2H line or total, e.g. today, LSU, I had LSU for game, but when I saw +6, I was like no way in hell GT covers that, and pounded the 2nd half line, but by the time I put it in, it dropped to +4.5. I saw other people take GT, and if you go by numbers, I can see why they did that, thinking they were getting +25-+27 points for the game, but you can't do that when you play second halves, it doesn't work like that. The hard thing is though it's hard to cap a 2nd half, you have to go more by feel than numbers, IMO, and I also think you have to watch the game more than just looking at stats before you play a second half. Not wrong to crunch second half numbers, but when u see what's actually going on, you can generally figure out what's going to happen.

 

[GimmeDattt]

2nd halves always present a valuable opportunity to make money as long as you don't use them to chase.

 

[streak]

2nd halves always present a valuable opportunity to make money as long as you don't use them to chase.

Wow well put..we have the same experiences.

 

[myboymagic]

agreed, I do far better after evaluating the play on the field. yet, i'll make dumb-ass first half plays, like lsu-gtech under, but not for the game, drives me fricken crazy

 

[Untermeyer]

Is there a single bettor, (one that plays almost every day) whose winning percentage on full games is higher than your 2H plays?

I ask because you can crunch data until its coming out of your ears, and still miss the intangibles. You cover every angle in your prep, and the team that was a solid play comes out and stinks up the place.

I think you're right. 2h college totals, in my opinion, are the easiest bets out there, if you're watching the game. Every possible advantage is on your side.

Data and trends are not that important. Betting success is not all the same thing as knowing lots of facts and statistics. That's too micro, tends to mislead as often as not. All we're trying to do is see that something is likelier to fall on one side of a number than the other. The big picture is what has to be seen, and the number crunching gets in the way. A lot of 2h totals in college hoops depend on the sheer energy the players have left after the first half. No number is going to tell you that, no statistical average.

 

[uralooozer2]

My Local Says 2nd half bets lose at least 75% of the time.
In my opinion 2nd half should be based on time of possession/ball control. No 2nd half plays for me in a game with alot of turnovers.

 

[papicker]

2nd halves always present a valuable opportunity to make money as long as you don't use them to chase.

i think this is why they have 2nd half bets, i have only did 2 all season and went 2-0 so i cant complain!

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

I can see why they did that, thinking they were getting +25-+27 points for the game, but you can't do that when you play second halves, it doesn't work like that.

It works like that more times than not. Especially in situation where the favorite is down by double digits in the first half. LSU was a special situation. But if you give up value like that a lot your going to lose.

 

[Tidepride]

Is there a single bettor, (one that plays almost every day) whose winning percentage on full games is higher than your 2H plays?

I ask because you can crunch data until its coming out of your ears, and still miss the intangibles. You cover every angle in your prep, and the team that was a solid play comes out and stinks up the place.

After watching a half, it seems you have a much better handle on which team wants it more and who has the better talent, speed and whose schemes are more on point. Data can only go so far in comparison to watching the 2 teams, on that particular day.

Case in point Ga Tech. GT was hotter, playing at home and healthier. LSU was down to qb#3, and at times looking unmotivated, particularly on defense. I looked at both teams L10 games and LSU had lost 6 straight ats and 8 of the last 9. GT was the inverse, only losing twice in their last 10.

Les Miles coached circles around GT's coach. Fake punt, onside kick and on defense they removed the option from GT's triple option.

2nd H LSU+6.5........seemed very generous.

It got me thinking about how others are doing on 2H', compared to full games.

Thanks......bol and happy new year.

this is a great question and post. I would say the # 1 reason we don't see more people play the 2h only is DISCIPLINE. But this is an excellent question, because you have a true feel of the 2 teams and coaches direction after watching the 1st half. Another example is after watching the 1st half of Vandy/Bc and the 2h o/u line come out 19' or 20 in some places. They were very lucky to score the 2h, although they did score 17 points it 7 of them was a fluke. But point being the defense were dominate and the young QBS were inept.

 

[dayang23]

It works like that more times than not. Especially in situation where the favorite is down by double digits in the first half. LSU was a special situation. But if you give up value like that a lot your going to lose.

Wrong, I could give you 5 reasons to every reason why to take LSU 2nd half yesterday, NO REASON to take GT. You were a FOOL if you did. Like I said, it's more about the feel and watching the game, than just crunching numbers. Actually there was only reason to take GT, the fact that they were favored by that number and were down 32 points, that's the only reason. What in the game you saw actually made you think they were gonna outscore LSU by 4-6 points in the 2nd half?

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

Wrong, I could give you 5 reasons to every reason why to take LSU 2nd half yesterday, NO REASON to take GT. You were a FOOL if you did. Like I said, it's more about the feel and watching the game, than just crunching numbers. Actually there was only reason to take GT, the fact that they were favored by that number and were down 32 points, that's the only reason. What in the game you saw actually made you think they were gonna outscore LSU by 4-6 points in the 2nd half?

READ the post. I never said I played GT. I played the under.I would have been a fool to play GT. I said in most situations when you play a favorite down double digits at the half more often than than not you will lose giving up value with large reversed final spreads like that. Especially when the favorite is the home team.

It works the same with totals. When you have extremely high scoring first halfs usually the second half plays under.