A NY Perspective -- Bowl Thread

[NYReb]

Bowls: 0-2 (-11*)

Well, I messed around and lost the first two silly bowls. Time to regroup and get down to real business. All the rest of my bowl picks will be in this same thread.

7* NC State -11
Kansas has to be commended for having a fine season and a huge turnaround from last season, when they along with Baylor (also improved) were two of the most profitable "go-against" teams in college football. With that said, I think the Wolfpack have a little more going for them, especially in terms of firepower. The Jayhawks have no marquee players in the league of Rivers and McLendon. I think the Wolfpack will outscore them efficiently enough to cover this double-digit spread.

7* TCU +10.5
We all know Boise St can score with the best of them, but TCU will actually have one of the better defenses the Broncos have run across. This is essentially a home game for the Horned Frogs, and I feel they have also played a much stronger schedule week in and week out. TCU can keep this one closer than they are being given credit for.

Best of luck to everyone with these two games!

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Reb, I was wondering if I could ask for your honest opinion to this question. Would you still back NC State if the line was -14.

 

[NYReb]

Co-Captain, that's an interesting question. I'd love to know where you are coming from with it, or what the answer means to you. Since I've made NCSt a 7* play, I'd like to think that 3 points would not affect the outcome, so the answer is, yes, I'd still take them if the line was 14, but it would only be a 5* play.

I'll have to admit that this is a "feeling" call, as the Wolfpack have not won that many games by 14 or 11 points for that matter. Still, I feel that they might bring a certain intensity to this game while Kansas might only be happy to be there. Prior bowl experience usually counts a lot in these games.

I'm looking forward to the game, so we'll see how it plays out. Also looking forward to seeing who you're on in this game. Take care, friend.

 

[jimmymo]

Hey Reb,

Love your work -- considering that NC State's defense gave up an average of 30 pts a game and that the UK offense is the strength of their team, you must be thinking that NC State's offense puts it in the 40's or 50's -- you on the over as well or do you think that NC State will hold UK down?

Thnx

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha NYReb, and much mahalos for sharing your opinion with me. I appreciate you taking the time out to do that. This game is very hard to cap out and I guess that I was trying to find out some type of number that would make you either jump off NCSt, not be affected by it at all, or stay on it but play it for less. I am leaning towards the dog, but due to the recent 0-2 dog slides so far, I am very weary of this changing. A major key to game, is who will show up today, as we all know about both their abilities on the field. Their are arguments on both sides as to why and for what reasons each team will show up. This only creates more uncertainty, so I thought I would pose a question to a respected capper like yourself with a different scenerio and work backwards somehow to the present situation. Its useless to do this , but I was curious in what your opinion would be. Anyways I wish you GL today and again thanks for sharing your valued opinion with me. I am going back to check on new info. BTW, what do you think of the new info that was posted in SportsSavants thread about several players , one cb and 2 O-linemen not being able to participate in this game.

I viewed it as additional negatives for NCSt. Because they already suffer to run the ball, and also because they will need every starter on their 90th ranked def to effectively stop Kansas Off. I wasn't aware of these things until today when sphincter posted it SportSavants thread. GL again CC.

[This message was edited by Co-Captain on December 22, 2003 at 03:13 PM.]

 

[NYReb]

Guys, I also have a:
5* on over 64.5

Also teased it to:
NC State -5
over 57.5

 

[Co-Captain]

 

[spidermonkey]

tcu is +12 1/2 at bowmans...

 

[NYReb]

Thanks, Spider, but I didn't come close to needing it

Wrong favorite.

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Reb, I glad this time we are on the same page. Good Luck to us. BTW, got some more insight on the Hawaii Bowl, that may help you out with you selection. Like you need help , right. Aloha CC.

 

[NYReb]

Co-Captain, I can use all the help I can get. As far as the Hawaii Bowl, I'll probably just tail you

Well, I guess it wasn't the wrong favorite, but I never could see why so many were so confident of a Boise blowout when it seemed to me to be a game that could easily be won by either team. The FG difference in score was not surprising.

Which brings me to my new record:

Bowls: 3-2 (+8*)

A slow start losing the first two, but the last three were downright easy winners, with the outcomes never in doubt.

Guys, will someone let me know if this kind of thread is difficult to follow? Would it be easier if I posted different threads for different days?

I am not even certain how this thread will play out. I will probably not be playing all bowl games, and some, like possibly the next two games, I might not play it until late in the day, up to an hour before the game.

On the other hand, I already have quite a few plays made in advance, usually when a good line was available. In several games I bought a half point when I had a shot of a more secure line. I think what I will do is post a couple of plays a day.

I will post the lines as I played them. Don't let this throw you off. Line movement up to 3 points does not affect my play. At 3 points it might move a 7* to a 5*. My 10*s are absolute -- line movement of any kind is irrelevant. If I worry about a couple of points, I won't be making a play.

7* Virginia Tech -2.5
I have about as much respect for Coach Tedford and the California program as any other in college football right now. I am impressed with what he can do with the talent at hand. With that said, I believe the Hokies have all kinds of advantages in this game. If they come to play, they win fairly easily. In fact, if I knew for certain that they were coming to play, this would be a 7*.

7* Texas Tech -12.5
With all respect to Navy, who have had a great year, I cannot see them slowing down this Red Raider attack. They simply do not have the speed or athleticism. I think TT will win something like 50-30. Whatever the final score, I feel confident that they will cover this spread. I'd still have a 7* at -14.

BTW, if I have a totals play, it will probably be made the day of the game. I usually don't do these in advance. There is, so far, one exception. I am playing:

5* OK/LSU under 49
These two teams have such great defenses. I just can't see a lot of scoring going on here.

Okay, fellows, be back later with more reports. Best of luck to each and every one of you.

[This message was edited by NY Reb on December 26, 2003 at 01:21 AM.]

 

[Rouxdog]

Reb,
Appreciate all of your insight on College Football this year and look forward to your 10*s for the bowl games. Happy Holidays.

 

[hansenbros.]

good work, nice write-ups reb!

gl

 

[spidermonkey]

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by hansen bros.:
good work, nice write-ups reb!

gl<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

agreed, great job and keeping it all in one thread is easier to follow.

 

[Co-Captain]

Aloha Reb, Im sorry , when I mentioned about the info on Hawaii, i forgot to tell you that I started a thread that has updates on info and insights that I will continue up until kickoff. If you need to catch up on current info, then the thread may help you. Then I will have another writeup before the game.

 

[NYReb]

I am well aware of all your threads, Co-Captain. Keep the info flowing.

 

[NYReb]

Spider, Hansen, and Rouxdog, thanks for your kind comments. Your support keeps me going

 

[nysports]

Reb--Respect your opinion a great deal, but I have a question for you. How do you explain your next statements? I'm having a hard time understanding them. Please don't think I'm slamming you because I'm not at all. Always trying to learn.

"On the other hand, I already have quite a few plays made in advance, usually when a good line was available. In several games I bought a half point when I had a shot of a more secure line. I think what I will do is post a couple of plays a day.

I will post the lines as I played them. Don't let this throw you off. Line movement up to 3 points does not affect my play. At 3 points it might move a 7* to a 5*. My 10*s are absolute -- line movement of any kind is irrelevant. If I worry about a couple of points, I won't be making a play."

Have a great Xmas to you and your family.

 

[NYReb]

Hey, sports. I have no explanation for my statements, other than they're just what I happened to write at the time. If they have no meaning for you, then consider them irrelevant.

Happiest of holidays to you.

 

[Co-Captain]

Reb, you not playing this one, cant find your play . CC.