A NY Perspective -- 11/20 - 11/22

[NYReb]

Last week: 9-5 (+26.5*)
Last 4 weeks: 30-15 (+106.9*)

Games are coming slowly this week. Some of my plays might be posted later than usual. Some might not be posted until Saturday. We'll see. It just depends on when the clarification takes place.

Thursday:
7* Southern Miss -2
Why is Southern Miss even favored? Because it's time for TCU to meet their waterloo. A month ago I'd have never taken this game, but the Golden Eagles have improved a lot in the last month. There's a lot of excitement brewing in Hattiesburg. USM will enjoy representing their conference in the Liberty bowl once again. Besides, who wants an undefeated TCU melodrama anyway?

Saturday:
7* Boston College +16 (bought half)
Seems like a lot of points for the Hokies to be giving anyone at this point. BC's Derrick Knight has run for more yards than VT's Kevin Jones. Hokies looked great against Miami, and very average since. Game will be closer than the spread.

7* West Virginia -2
I kind of like the momentum the Mountaineers have going. I always hate going against the Orangemen in the Carrier Dome (I drove past the Carrier Dome just last night) but I'm going to go for it this time. Love to watch Quincy Wilson at RB. He is a tough hombre!

7* Arkansas -26.5 (Canbet)
I keep waiting for the linesman to catch up with Miss St. Maybe they're getting closer, but I still don't think they've quite caught them. Bulldogs aren't going to put up much of a fight until they play Ole Miss Thanksgiving night. Most of the team has quit, and many of the best players are injured. There is no spirit, no heart, and no fight in these guys. Hogs have injuries and a look-ahead to mighty LSU, but they'll crush the Dawgs anyway. They should win by 35. If the Hogs rest their starters in the 2nd half, MSU will be going against someone a little closer to their talent level, but they'd still be outmanned.

Other plays are still perculating. Check back if interested.

[This message was edited by NY Reb on November 19, 2003 at 11:48 PM.]

 

[Bones13]

Thx Reb, long time follower with very little posts. I do value your 5*, 7* and 10*'s. Just wondering what star is the Arkansas Game. I'm thinking 7 star but just want to be sure. Thx again and appreciate all your work.

 

[NYReb]

Thanks, Bones, for pointing that out to me. Yes, all 4 plays I wrote up today were for 7*. I actually considered Arkansas for 10*, but just because the last two against MSU have been so easy I tend to hesitate a big. Still, I can't imagine the Bulldogs even wanting to be in this game. It's no fun for them anymore. Arkansas has something to play for.

 

[gofrogs4]

Reb, you know i love your pics but dont count out my frogs--I have been to practice this week and we are going into miss FIRED up to prove a pt. Might want to rethink that one.

 

[NYReb]

USM will be fired up to prove a point as well. Probably could go either way. It just seems that making USM the favorite is begging for TCU money. I like the home team in this situation. Good luck, though, and if your team goes undefeated, I hope they are justly rewarded.

 

Reb those improvements have been against awfully bad teams (Houston I'll give them credit for...they got on them early but still got outrushed in that game 205-136 and had a fumble return late to seal it).

You're right about the line...it's the only thing bothering me tonight.

Good luck this weekend.

sb

 

[mobeer]

REB

Like the S.Miss play, will be playing them tonight also. Should be a great game.

CARD LOOK SHARP MY FRIEND!

GL$$

BEER GUY$$

 

[NYReb]

Good luck to you, Sportsbet. It's true, college football is often irrational.

10* Ole Miss +7 (bought half point)
I keep waiting for this line to go up to 7, like it did for Michigan, but for some reason it won't go up. The fact that it doesn't go up has meaning for me. Average folks should be pounding LSU by now. After all, they are probably the class of the SEC. As I look through their lineup, I see many familiar names from former all-star recruiting lists. No way the Rebs match up in talent. However, there's something about the way the Rebs play LSU. Last five years goes like this:
2002: Ole Miss 13 LSU 14 (Ole Miss covers)
2001: Ole Miss 35 LSU 24 (Ole Miss covers)
2000: Ole Miss 9 LSU 20 (LSU covers)
1999: Ole Miss 42 LSU 23 (Ole Miss covers)
1998: Ole Miss 37 LSU 31 (Ole Miss covers)
That's 4-1 ATS in last 5 meetings. (3 of 5 games were in Baton Rouge.) And this year's edition of the Rebs is the best of all those teams. Eli Manning is a future All-Pro. He is the best quarterback in college football. He has a lot of highly recruiting guys in the OL to protect him, as well as more highly recruited guys at WR. Rebs will score on LSU's vaunted defense, especially at home. The real secret of this game is whether the Rebel defense can deter the powerful LSU offense. I think the defense is underrated. Pass protection is 100% better than it was the first half of season. Secondary actually has skill and talent. And I'm betting the front 7 can hold their own in this particular game. They are sky-high. Is LSU actually that much better after beating Rebs by a point in Baton Rouge last year? Think about it. I like this game a lot. This year is a year of destiny for the Rebs in general and for Eli in particular. Feel he can will the Rebs to victory here. BTW, this isn't for the record, but I also have a play on the moneyline at +240. Truly feel the Rebs will win this game.

 

[muffinman]

Reb,
Great write-up. i wasn't aware of the tremendous success the Rebs have had with LSU over the past 5 years. I too, love this game. At the beginning of the year(even as far back as 3 weeks ago) I thought this Ol Miss team was over-rated, and their defense was terrible, but they have turned me around and convinced me that they are the team to beat this year in the SEC. I think if Manning manages to win this game, he is a shoe-in for the heisman. His team, and his coach will do everything in their power to help him do this. They will be so ready for this game. I think the 7 points is too generous, and I also think that if you have a little more patience, this line will move north. Good luck....

ps...I also love Southern Miss tonight..They should slap TCU back to reality. They have been playing very good football as of late.

 

[LSUpete]

I disagree on the Ole Miss selection.....

http://therxforum.com/6/ubb.x?a=tpc&s=100090022&f=771094022&m=16510357

 

[Schouest]

I'm with Pete...This is like no LSU team I have ever seen. This the best all around TEAM they have ever had. They should be able to pressure Manning WITHOUT blitzing much. They have MONSTERS as their front 4. Chad Lavolais will be a force in the NFL.

Good luck with the rest of your plays REB, I've followed you this year--it's been a great one.
Congrats !

 

[NYReb]

Nice beginning to the week with Southern Miss tonight. Who would've thought that the over would be such an obvious winner as well? I had it pegged as a defensive struggle. Guess that's why I rarely play totals, especially for college.

Sportsbet, hope you were on the home team tonight. Victory was sweet.

Beer, that was an enjoyable win, wasn't it? Good luck to you this weekend!

Muffin, glad you enjoyed the win tonight also. Let's hope the Ole Miss game is just as enjoyable.

Shouest, I know what you mean. The Tigers look almost too obvious here. I could almost convince myself to go with them.

Hi, Pete. I think you already made your feelings obvious. Should I post a link to my thread in your thread?

 

[Imareb]

Hey NYR, I follow you over on the Spirit Board. You are doing a great job. I think people do not realize that our "O" line is pretty strong. Some of these people are in for a rude awakening. Good luck this weekend! GO TO HELL LSU!

 

[LSUpete]

Hell yes!

 

[BigDaddyNole]

not sure how many of you folks ever check out Greg Roberts' website: www.consensus900.com
they usually have their free picks up late Thursday
their picks have been very strong the last few weeks, especially their "barking dog" predictions:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR> The Striped Felines are back in the dog pen this week fresh off spanking the red colored detergent from Tuscaloosa and could find themselves in a world of trouble here. The Rebels can slow down the LSU run game with their 3.1 yard per rush defense while Eli Manning lights up the Bengal defense much like he did 2 years ago. Ole Miss also possesses the advantage in the kicking game having made 23 of 24 field goals. After this one's over you'll look like an Oxford scholar and be whistling Dixie by taking this Rebel with a cause!
MISSISSIPPI -28 LSU - 24
<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

there's a guy on there named "B.A." who I've followed this year --- every week he and others put up there "best bet" .... so far he's 10-1 --- FWIW, his pick this week is Southern Cal -21'

 

[blockrxxxx]

Arkansas win but score I see is 34/8..Hope your right & I'm wrong

 

[NYReb]

7* Alabama +8
I didn't think I'd be on Alabama again this season, but that's until I saw they were playing Auburn. Tide has just enough left in them, and certain the desire, to keep this one under the number. Looks like a field goal game to me, and certain no more than a TD, which Bama could win as easily as the tumbling Tigers. Go with the dog in this spot.

7* Memphis -10
I've become a believer in the Tigers, starting from when they knocked off Ole Miss early in the season, or rather, how they did it. Danny Wimprine has turned into a very productive QB, and DeAngelo Williams is a real talent at RB. (I remember a couple of years ago there was a big push for his signature out of high school, with Ole Miss and Arkansas highly involved, with hometown Memphis winning out. Now they are reaping the rewards.) Don't know what has happened to Cincy this year, but they haven't impressed me much. Bearcats won 48-10 last year. You don't think the Tigers want a little payback at home?

7* North Carolina St PK
No way Philip Rivers goes out a loser in his last home game. Not much of an analysis, but it suits my purposes. Wolfpack is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in last 8 home finales. Mark another win for this year.

7* Pittsburgh -14
Temple played their GOY last week against VT and almost came through. Panthers, meanwhile, were getting swamped by West Virginia. That's not a good combo for this game, at least where Temple is concerned. Can't see the Owls coming back with that same kind of effort this week, whereas Pitt will play with more intensity than they might have otherwise. Spread will probably be covered by halftime.

Couple of more games still perculating. Could be posted later today or on Saturday.

Good luck!

 

[NYReb]

Once again I'm going to put it out there that the conferences I "specialize" in are the SEC, ACC, Big East, and C-USA. When I go outside those conferences, especially in football, I need a little help from my friends.

Two games I am looking at are USC -22 and Ok St -27. Does anyone have anything to say, that hasn't already been said in this thread, to put me on or keep me off either of these games? Thanks in advance.

 

Reb I have to stop talking myself out of good plays. I was on TCUgly last night (thankfully the Flyers and the first half Over in the Suns/Magic game softened the blow).

Trojans should roll....check out WC Bias thread on that game. I agree UCLA's offense is the worst in the PAC 10...they give Zona a run for their money.


G/L this weekend.

sb

 

[NYReb]

5* Fresno +9