A Little Bit of ACC Talk

[jimmyshivers]

So far I'm seeing a lot of good threads on many of the big conferences this year, but as of yet I haven't seen alot of ACC talk. So lets try to get a litte excitement generated for what should be one of the most improved conferences in the country from top to bottom this season. I'm still seeing a ton of parity in this league which will probably keep anyone from being a serious national title contender, but I think that their are two or three teams capable of double digit wins this year.

Coastal Division

1. Virginia Tech Hokies

Last season the Hokies were a young team, and one of the ways that this manifested itself was in some very inconsistent performances. They were very average at home and IMO were fortunate to make the ACC title game. This team brings a ton of experience from last years Orange Bowl championship team and should be a force in the ACC.

The Hokie schedule this season appears to be very tough (Steele rates it as number 8 nationally), but I actually like the way it lays out. After the opening battle with Alabama at the Georgia dome (Bama should have more fan support but VT historically travels very well and I think this will be a bowl game type of crowd in that it will be fairly evenly split) VT comes home for 3 games followed by a road trip to Duke and another Home game. The Hokies won't see a true road atmosphere until October 17th @ Georgia Tech! I know Taylor has been a shaky starter for the Hokies but this should be a great opportunity for him to gain alot of confidence and for the coaching staff to decide just how much they can trust him to throw the ball.

VT's offense struggled last year but they've never been an explosive offensive team. This is a program that thrives on ball control, defense and special teams and I think they are capable of excelling in all three areas this year. 7 Starters return from the ACC's number 1 defense including 3 guys in a secondary that produced 21 picks last season. The front 7 is a little young but the Hokies dont face any proven quality passing qb's until late October (Yates, Pickney and Wilson) so they will probably be extra aggressive in Bud Carson's various blitzing packages.

Bottom line to me is that I expect Tech to be favored in every game they play (with the exceptions of possibly Bama and @ GT, which I would rate at about a pick'em at this point). Their is IMO alot of potential for a special season in Blacksburg and I think there is some value in the season total for wins as they are a great home team and all of their road games should be very winnable.

** Virginia Tech Hokies over 9 wins @ Sportsbook.com (+115)


More to come as I can find the time to write these teams up...

 

[CarolinaKid]

Really cant get too excited over the acc here.Va Tech will be good imo , but the rest you can toss in a hat and see what come out.Also the acc never plays well in big games against top teams and until this happen, well the acc will be Baskeball only conf..ck

 

[STACKSONDECK]

tar heels gonna be nice

 

[jimmyshivers]

2. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

I've been a big fan of Paul Johnson ever since he was able to switch from a spread offense @ Hawaii to a triple option attack with Navy. To me he is a very savvy coach who took so long to get a big time job because the offense he runs is unfashionable. Georgia Tech took the risk last season and reaped the immediate benefits of a 9-4 season and a win over arch-rival Georgia. Johnson in less than a year has implemented an offense that is extremely hard to prepare for in the short amount of time that most teams get in the middle of the season.

In year one Johnson shed alot of guys who werent fit for his system and the resulting lineup was very young (even this year the projected offensive starting 11 returns 10 startes and only contains two seniors). This is a run-heavy team that returns their top 5 rushers (and adds an 1100 yard back in Louisville transfer Anthony Allen) as well as returns 5 linemen with starting experience. This offense has been described as one that can be tough to grasp but I don't think there is any concern in Atlanta about this unit being able to pick up where they left off and possibly add to their production.

The defense lost a ton in the front 4 but I won't penalize them as much as some people might because I don't see alot of good quaterbacks in this conference. All of their linebackers and DB's with significant starting experience return so I think they also will be able to cheat up against a schedule that is extremely light on pass-heavy, strong armed QB's.

Speaking of the schedule, to me it looks like a mixed bag for the Jackets. They have a tough six game stretch with them playing Clemson, @ Miami, UNC @ Miss St, @ Florida State and VT for Homecoming. With a less experienced team I would be wary of picking them this high with that kind of gauntlet, but I think this team will hit the ground running. I have the Jackets going 9-3 again (losses @ Miami, @ FSU and at home to Georgia) and in contention for the Gator Bowl.

 

[jimmyshivers]

Really cant get too excited over the acc here.Va Tech will be good imo , but the rest you can toss in a hat and see what come out.Also the acc never plays well in big games against top teams and until this happen, well the acc will be Baskeball only conf..ck

Hope the offseason has treated you nice ck, if my team had just won a NC I would think its a basketball only conference too.

 

[CarolinaKid]

Jimmy yes been a great summer here as i have been traveling a lot and really looking forward to the football season.I do think NC STATE will be good if they can kept the qb in there and that 1st game against South Carolina will be a good one and imo will set the trend for State this yr..........gl with your football season and let have a great money making season....ck

 

[mws]

7 Starters return from the ACC's number 1 defense

VPI may have allowed the least yards per game, but that's only because they played really short games (123 plays per game), and the offense held the ball so that the defense was only on the field for 57 plays per game. Virginia Tech's defense was just average by ACC standards last year -- strictly middle of the pack. However, the schedule is so easy that I'm tempted to play the over 9 wins myself.

 

[jimmyshivers]

VPI may have allowed the least yards per game, but that's only because they played really short games (123 plays per game), and the offense held the ball so that the defense was only on the field for 57 plays per game. Virginia Tech's defense was just average by ACC standards last year -- strictly middle of the pack. However, the schedule is so easy that I'm tempted to play the over 9 wins myself.

Good post. VT has a history of playing shorter games than average because they are so dedicated to ball control and game management; its their MO. The defense did have some rough patches last season (gave up 28 points in 3 out of 4 games in 1 midseason stretch), but at the end of the season they were very stout. In a 6 game stretch against five bowl teams they allowed (13, 16, 3, 14, 12, and 7 points). IMO the D carries this team this year and the O will be asked to get 21 points. If Taylor grows as a passer at all I think they could win 11

 

[jimmyshivers]

3. North Carolina Tar Heels

Coming in a close third I have the young and talented UNC Tar Heels. Carolina has the most talent and depth they have had since Mack Brown was the coach and I see alot of reason for the high expectations that are coming out of chapel hill. They get a productive QB back in TJ Yates and both RB's with 4 OLers with at least 9 career starts. While they lost a lot at wide receiver I don't think the production will drop as much as people are predicting. When pressed for comment at the recent ACC Media Days about what would surprise people this season, he quickly stated "Our WR's, these guys have been catching everything." They moved former RB Greg Little back to his original WR position and he has looked very comfortable in a productive spring. I'm not in love with the running backs but everyone in the backfield who produced last year is back so they can only get better.

The real reason that I like the heels this season is their defense. While not exactly stout last season it was a very young unit (even this season they only have 2 projected seniors starting, and 9 starters return from a year ago) that is going to be very tough up the middle (all-acc preseason players @ DT Austin, MLB Sturdivant and FS Williams). The athleticism that Davis has brought in these last three years is going to let these guys anchor the middle while they younger guys fly around the rest of the field and try to make plays. Although this defense thrived off of turnovers last season they only ended up +6 in that department and I expect that to improve.

Carolina will have a great chance to get off to a 3-0 start with a few non-conference games, though ECU could really test the heels if they look ahead to their big road trip to Atlanta. The heels draw 2 FCS teams this season and spend their first half of the season playing only 2 teams that I expect to be bowl caliber this season (ECU and GT). This will be a great chance for the still young Heels to get some real confidence and cohesion going into the more difficult back half of the schedule. The crux of the season will be back to back thursday night games against FSU and @ VT; if they gel well up to this point anything is possible over the final month. They play Duke for homecoming after the back to back espn showdowns (can you say let down?) and close with 3 bowl teams from '08, including trips to BC and rival NCS. I think this team wins at least 7 games this year and if they gel like Davis thinks they will, this team can win DD games.

 

[jimmyshivers]

4. Miami Hurricanes

I think Miami has as much talent as anyone in this league, and I actually think Randy Shannon as shown some good qualities as a HC. This team should be stronger than last seasons 7-6 team that nearly made the ACC title game but it would not suprise me if their record did not improve.

I like that Robert Marve has transferred out of the program. He was the lesser of the 2 quaterbacks and now Jacory Harris can focus on playing QB without looking over his shoulder every other series.

The problem that Miami will face IMO is that their schedule is an absolute ball buster. They open with 4 straight games against Top 20 teams, including on the road at perennial rival FSU and hosting defending Big XII champs (and consensus top 3 team) Oklahoma. This will be a tough stretch to break in a mostly new starter (only 2 starts so far in career) against 4 talented defenses. After that stretch the schedule gets easier but still doesn't do them any favors as most of their easier games (Florida A & M, UVA, Duke) are at home and they have to go on the road for the tougher games. Miami plays 6 Road games this season and 5 of those are against bowl teams from '08.

I like the defensive front for Miami and they are surrounded by young athletic players, but this will be a team that has zero room for error early and for such a young group that is very scary. If they survive early and go 2-2 or 3-1 there is a good possibility for that Miami swagger to come back, but I think that this team is a year away from being an elite team. ATS I think there are a few good spots for this team; they get a week off to prepare for GT on a thursday night at home and their defensive front should be motivated after being embarrassed against this Jacket O last year (472 rusing yards allowed). I also like them a lot against Clemson as they will have had two weeks against lesser teams (FAMU and UCF) right after their opening gauntlet and I think Shannon will have this team fired up to get a winning streak started as they head into the 2nd half of the schedule.

 

[GoSooners]

Jimmy... because of their relative youth last season, to me it looks like North Carolina has more room for improvment than any other team in the ACC. Especially on defense. This Coastal Division is so close that it's tough to call. VT does have the most favorable schedule. But it concerns me that they weren't dominant in ANY game last season home or away. NC has the least favorable schedule of the teams in the division. But I think for this reason alone, we'll see them as either small favorites or dogs in most of their games. Which means good ATS value with this team.

 

[HiPockets]

4. Miami Hurricanes

I think Miami has as much talent as anyone in this league, and I actually think Randy Shannon as shown some good qualities as a HC. This team should be stronger than last seasons 7-6 team that nearly made the ACC title game but it would not suprise me if their record did not improve.

I like that Robert Marve has transferred out of the program. He was the lesser of the 2 quaterbacks and now Jacory Harris can focus on playing QB without looking over his shoulder every other series.

The problem that Miami will face IMO is that their schedule is an absolute ball buster. They open with 4 straight games against Top 20 teams, including on the road at perennial rival FSU and hosting defending Big XII champs (and consensus top 3 team) Oklahoma. This will be a tough stretch to break in a mostly new starter (only 2 starts so far in career) against 4 talented defenses. After that stretch the schedule gets easier but still doesn't do them any favors as most of their easier games (Florida A & M, UVA, Duke) are at home and they have to go on the road for the tougher games. Miami plays 6 Road games this season and 5 of those are against bowl teams from '08.

I like the defensive front for Miami and they are surrounded by young athletic players, but this will be a team that has zero room for error early and for such a young group that is very scary. If they survive early and go 2-2 or 3-1 there is a good possibility for that Miami swagger to come back, but I think that this team is a year away from being an elite team. ATS I think there are a few good spots for this team; they get a week off to prepare for GT on a thursday night at home and their defensive front should be motivated after being embarrassed against this Jacket O last year (472 rusing yards allowed). I also like them a lot against Clemson as they will have had two weeks against lesser teams (FAMU and UCF) right after their opening gauntlet and I think Shannon will have this team fired up to get a winning streak started as they head into the 2nd half of the schedule.

Keep posting js; like many, I'm reading and learning

 

[TOOTIGHT]

** Virginia Tech Hokies over 9 wins @ Sportsbook.com (+115)


Good to see you back Jimmy and I think your right when it comes to VTECH. When was the last time they didn't win 10 games...gotta go back to 2003. Can't not like a team that has experience coming back at QB, good running game, an awesome defense, ST, and sick coaching. They are just not a sexy team so there is value with VTech year after year it seems. They don't get top 10 recruiting classes, don't score many points but are always plus on TO margin and get TD's on ST's.... and that my friend is what covers spreads 90% on the time.

 

[trentmoney]

** Virginia Tech Hokies over 9 wins @ Sportsbook.com (+115)


Good to see you back Jimmy and I think your right when it comes to VTECH. When was the last time they didn't win 10 games...gotta go back to 2003. Can't not like a team that has experience coming back at QB, good running game, an awesome defense, ST, and sick coaching. They are just not a sexy team so there is value with VTech year after year it seems. They don't get top 10 recruiting classes, don't score many points but are always plus on TO margin and get TD's on ST's.... and that my friend is what covers spreads 90% on the time.

how about last season...(8-4)

 

[jimmyshivers]

Jimmy... because of their relative youth last season, to me it looks like North Carolina has more room for improvment than any other team in the ACC. Especially on defense. This Coastal Division is so close that it's tough to call. VT does have the most favorable schedule. But it concerns me that they weren't dominant in ANY game last season home or away. NC has the least favorable schedule of the teams in the division. But I think for this reason alone, we'll see them as either small favorites or dogs in most of their games. Which means good ATS value with this team.

While I agree that UNC definitely has a lot of room for improvement (only 5 seniors in the early 2-deep and many of these guys are exprienced already) I would have to disagree that their schedule is all that bad. The do go to Atlanta and Blacksburg but I think every road game this team plays is winnable. Their biggest dog line of the year will probably be around 7.5 @ VT if expected form holds up, and though I don't like them at all in that spot I see every other road game as a toss up at least. To me the Canes have a much tougher road to hoe as they get the easiest teams @ Home (UVA, Duke) late in the season but every road game should be an absolute test. For a young team this is a very dangerous line-up as they get thrown to the fire early and have to respond. If I am random school A I jump @ UNC's schedule because they ease into it with three OOC games that they will be favored in before going to GT.


Agreed that its tough to call the Coastal. IMO 4 of the top 5 teams in the league reside here (maybe shoot me but I'm gonna be square this year and be really high on FSU actually hitting their potenial for once) and everyone has question marks. I feel confident in the bottom 2 not contending but everything else should be up for grabs. As a bettor it points to alot of short lines this season and if you are big on factors like motivation and schedule then it creates some very profitable situations. IMO parity sets up the situational gambler much easier than a predictable pecking order because you get a better handle on predicting who will be up for each game with so much at stake.

 

[jimmyshivers]

how about last season...(8-4)

This is a good point and if your betting on these season win totals you have to remember that it doesnt include anything after november. VT needs to go 10-2 for this to hit but I can't see them winning less than 9 games this year barring losing ~50 games from starters so to me it is a play with a high +EV

 

[TOOTIGHT]

how about last season...(8-4)

My bad...no more posting after pre-gaming on Friday night before hitting the town :toast:

 

[8ate]

Don't like FlaSt or Clemson..?; both could win 10;

jmho
gl

 

[BigdaddyQH]

Florida State will be lucky to win 9 games. We know they will get pounded by Florida. I am not too sure that they can handleu BYU on the road. They also go to Clemson, Wake, and UNC as well as play Ga. Tech and South Florida at home. Let us not forget their season opener against Miami, which is always a very close game.

Clemson get's the acid test early, in week 2 at Ga. Tech. They certaily have amuch more favorable schedule that Florida State. They do not play UNC or Va Tech. Away games at Miami and N.C. State will be a challenge.

Neither one of these teams are as good as the Top 3 teams in the Coastal Division, but all you have to do is win the Conference Championship game to go to a BCS game. Va. Tech did it with 4 losses last year.

 

[GoSooners]

While I agree that UNC definitely has a lot of room for improvement (only 5 seniors in the early 2-deep and many of these guys are exprienced already) I would have to disagree that their schedule is all that bad. The do go to Atlanta and Blacksburg but I think every road game this team plays is winnable. Their biggest dog line of the year will probably be around 7.5 @ VT if expected form holds up, and though I don't like them at all in that spot I see every other road game as a toss up at least. To me the Canes have a much tougher road to hoe as they get the easiest teams @ Home (UVA, Duke) late in the season but every road game should be an absolute test. For a young team this is a very dangerous line-up as they get thrown to the fire early and have to respond. If I am random school A I jump @ UNC's schedule because they ease into it with three OOC games that they will be favored in before going to GT.


Agreed that its tough to call the Coastal. IMO 4 of the top 5 teams in the league reside here (maybe shoot me but I'm gonna be square this year and be really high on FSU actually hitting their potenial for once) and everyone has question marks. I feel confident in the bottom 2 not contending but everything else should be up for grabs. As a bettor it points to alot of short lines this season and if you are big on factors like motivation and schedule then it creates some very profitable situations. IMO parity sets up the situational gambler much easier than a predictable pecking order because you get a better handle on predicting who will be up for each game with so much at stake.

Jimmy...I was thinking more along the lines of being a tough schedule because if North Carolina should lose to Ga Tech or Va Tech or both on the road, and then lose the tiebreaker with either of those teams because of a head to head loss..But like you said, it's very close with these teams. If NC should defeat VT on the road, they could very possibly be in the drivers seat for the Coastal Division. .