No. 9 FAU vs. No. 5 San Diego State
1H UNDER 61 (-115) — 1.5-units
SDSU is obviously an under team, not just cashing the full game under in all four NCAA Tournament games so far, but in each of its last 12 games. I’ve been on SDSU 1H under against Alabama and Creighton, cashing both of those tickets. I’m going to look to stay on that trend in this one.
The Aztecs do a terrific job of establishing their pace to start these games. The offense can be ugly. I thought some shots were going to break the backboard during Sunday’s eventual victory over Creighton. But you can count on SDSU to always slow the pace and give maximum effort on the defensive end.
FAU likes to play faster, but we saw a tale of two games (at least in the first half) during their Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight outings. FAU was able to play at a rapid pace against Kansas State, which wanted to play the same uptempo game. But the Owls battled for control of he pace against Tennessee. FAU dominated the second half, playing their style. But that was a 27-22 game at the half, very much in favor of how the Vols wanted to play.
The Aztecs played two high-power offenses over the weekend, but limited Alabama and Creighton to a combined 56 points in the first halves of those games. I like SDSU to play their pace early in this one, cashing another 1H under. FAU thrives on launching from downtown, shooting 17-of-50 (34%) against Tennessee and K-State. SDSU just held ‘Bama and Creighton to an insane 5-for-44 (11%) from three.
That should be the difference in this game. It puts me on the under here, but also has me leaning to the Aztecs to win the game. But so far I haven’t come around to backing them, only because that offense can be so gross.
No 5. Miami vs. No. 4 UCONN
NCAA Tournament Winner: UCONN (-125) — 4-units
UCONN TT OVER 77.5 (-110) — 1-unit
I’ll start with the team total play. I obviously like the Huskies here, but don’t want to lay the points. KenPom has UConn by seven in this one, and it wouldn’t shock me if they won by a large margin yet again. This has been the one team just plowing through everyone in the tournament. But because of the future I’m going to play on UConn, I’ll use their team total as my play for this game.
UConn now tops KenPom as the highest ranked team in the country, rightfully so. The Huskies rank third in adjusted offensive efficiency — averaging 81.75 points in their four tournament games. That includes 70 points against a slow St. Mary’s team that ranks top-10 on defense. UConn has scored 82 or more in the other three games.
Enter Miami, who can score, but ranks 104th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Against similar competition, the Hurricanes just gave up 81 to Texas — and UConn is even tougher to defend at the moment. Even if this turns into a blowout (like Arkansas and Gonzaga did), UConn should still get into the 80’s.
As for the future on UConn, this will be my largest play of the tournament. Square? Sure. But looking at the rest of the field at this point, it’s UConn’s tournament to lose. Miami and SDSU are one sided teams, although opposite sides of the ball. FAU is really the only team with a balance to compete with UConn, but the Huskies do everything better than the Owls. Too much size, too much skill and far more balance on this Huskies team compared to the competition the rest of the way out.
While I will always hold a grudge against Dan Hurly for abandoning my Rhode Island Rams, I’m a big UConn fan the rest of the way out.
