A 99.99% certain bet Sunday for NBA

[vegashatesme]

The headline says 99.99% certain because we all know the jinx when anyone says a game is a lock. But I beileve this bet is as close to a lock as you can get:

Lakers money line against the Mavs.

I never trust the point spread with any Lakers game, so bet at your own risk. The current spread is -9.5 but if you could shave the points down to -6.5, I think you could be in good hands. It's too early today for the Lakers money line but whatever it is, bet BIG. Here's the reason why I am so confident in this play: The Mavericks have won only 3 road games against the Lakers in the past 18 SEASONS!!! That's right I said SEASONS!! If you don't believe me, read the Yahoo sports preview of this game. Also, with the Lakers being 29-4 at home this season, this bet is too good to pass up.

LET'S GET THIS PAPER!!!

:money8:

 

[clearx1]

the risk is too high for a small return.

 

[vegashatesme]

the risk is too high for a small return.

The Mavs basically have no small forward unless Josh Howard comes back, but he'll see limited minutes anyway. Lakers just beat the Rockets in Houston and the Spurs in San Antonio. Kobe has been playing out of his mind this season. The Mavs are inconsistent on the road. I would dare say that the risk is little to none, and the return is small only if you bet small. That's why I said bet BIG.

 

[thesandman1]

Bet big? Meaning what. Lose big? First you say your play is a MoneyLine play, then you say buy the line down to minus 6.5 points, which would have you laying around -170 and no sure thing the Lakers can win by 7 or more. Now if you are saying it's a sure thing (29-4), the Lakers will just win the game without having to cover any point spread, it better be 33-0 to make your play worthwhile because the MoneyLine when a team is a 9.5 point favorite is around -600. To win just a hundred dollars you have to risk six hundred dollars. Good Luck, I would never take that risk for such a small payday.

 

[vegashatesme]

Bet big? Meaning what. Lose big? First you say your play is a MoneyLine play, then you say buy the line down to minus 6.5 points, which would have you laying around -170 and no sure thing the Lakers can win by 7 or more. Now if you are saying it's a sure thing (29-4), the Lakers will just win the game without having to cover any point spread, it better be 33-0 to make your play worthwhile because the MoneyLine when a team is a 9.5 point favorite is around -600. To win just a hundred dollars you have to risk six hundred dollars. Good Luck, I would never take that risk for such a small payday.

First of all, I said I did not trust the point spread, which means I will not bet the point spread. If you had the sense to read my first post, I wrote "bet at your own risk" referring to the point spread. If you want to bet the point spread, that's fine, but that's not what I will be doing. I suggested that shaving the points down to -6.5 might be a good idea, but not a sure thing. The money line is a different story. The Mavericks simply can't beat the Lakers on the road. Remember, Mavs only won 3 road games against the Lakers in the last 18 seasons. That's incredible to me. Also, you're right risking 600 to win 100 doesn't have any incentive. However, I am betting MUCH bigger than that. Some of you might think I'm crazy for doing such a thing, but hey, when you believe in something, you should go for it.

 

[GoForBroke]

@)

 

[TeddyTed]

i think it defintly would be a good idea to take the lakers in a parlay ml or shaving the points,i probily will do that.not alone,but in a parlay,your right it looks good!

 

[spreadproof]

You guys aren't thinking too clearly, the Lakers just locked up their playoff seat and Division title, they didn't even have practice on Friday. The team and the coach are going to play this one relaxed. They will probably play the reserves to eliminate risk of injuries. Which is why I have a small play on Dallas ML and a larger amount on Dallas in a 4pt teaser which I played when they were +9. I would say stay clear of the Lakers today.

 

[vegashatesme]

Mavs 54 - Lakers 66 halftime: so far, so good guys. If you took the spread at -9.5, it's a little close. If you shaved points off, things are looking bright. For the money line, it's looking VERY good. Pau Gasol is 10 for 10, gotta love him.

 

[Huego]

it doesn't take much capping to call a straight up win at -500

 

[vegashatesme]

it doesn't take much capping to call a straight up win at -500

You're right buddy, anyone could call a straight up win. If you're willing to bet in the tens of thousands though like me, sometimes it's best to be cautious of point spreads. I would rather take a near certainty than taking a bigger chance on how much a team wins by.

 

[Cheungy]

this thread is stupid and pointless^<<^

 

[vegashatesme]

this thread is stupid and pointless^<<^

Your life is stupid and pointless, that's why you're hanging yourself.

 

[DA_MOSS]

where do you bet tens of thousands??

If you say Vegas, I will cut you...

 

[vegashatesme]

In vegas, try and cut me.

 

[Cheungy]

Your life is stupid and pointless, that's why you're hanging yourself.

no need to personally insult me

hehe@)

 

[Cheungy]

btw have fun with the 5 dollars you won!

dont try and spend it all at one place

 

[DA_MOSS]

In vegas, try and cut me.

so you drive to vegas and bet that much.. all the way from florida??? what casino's let you bet tens of thousands of dollars???

 

[vegashatesme]

no need to personally insult me

hehe@)

Don't talk smack on someone's thread and you won't get attacked. :howdy:

 

[vegashatesme]

so you drive to vegas and bet that much.. all the way from florida??? what casino's let you bet tens of thousands of dollars???

First of all, I'm on vacation in Vegas from Florida and I flew here. The Venetian will let you take high stakes action if you clear it with one of the pit bosses, that's where I'm at right now. Believe it if you want, I don't care, but it's the truth.