A $28 bet could win you 142K. You're offered 42K. What do you do?

[Enfuego]

??????????????

 

[PatsFan1283]

Not enough information.

What do you think the chances are the bet will win?

 

[Enfuego]

Not enough information.

What do you think the chances are the bet will win?

Straight up ATS bet at -110.

 

[PatsFan1283]

The correct mathematical play would be to let it ride. But if 42k is a lot of money to you then it is possible you would just take the $ and run as Steve Miller would say.

You could also buy the bet back by hedging if possible and extract the true equity you have from the bet.

 

[Enfuego]

The correct mathematical play would be to let it ride. But if 42k is a lot of money to you then it is possible you would just take the $ and run as Steve Miller would say.

You could also buy the bet back by hedging if possible and extract the true equity you have from the bet.

You a SM fan? I saw the Doobie's open up for him years ago. Great show.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Yeah he's cool.

Is this bet an actual real thing?

Tough to find an out to let you bet 77k on the other side and pull the $ out of it but that would be the ideal play (still not mathematically correct but the right move for 99.5% of the population)

 

[Enfuego]

Yeah he's cool.

Is this bet an actual real thing?

Tough to find an out to let you bet 77k on the other side and pull the $ out of it but that would be the ideal play (still not mathematically correct but the right move for 99.5% of the population)

No, just hypothetical.

 

[TomGshotput]

What are the expected values and variances of each option?

 

[PatsFan1283]

What are the expected values and variances of each option?

I took it to mean the $28 to win 142k is like the 18th leg of a parlay or something like that. So at that point just a straight bet at 50/50.

 

[Enfuego]

I took it to mean the $28 to win 142k is like the 18th leg of a parlay or something like that. So at that point just a straight bet at 50/50.

Yes.

 

[tanner12oz]

Straight up ATS bet at -110.

let it ride

 

[Enfuego]

Even playing it safe you're 1,400 to 1 right?

 

[pocketrockets]

I cash out, 48k would fix me for 3 years easily

 

[PatsFan1283]

I cash out, 48k would fix me for 3 years easily

Hypothetically if you had time and knew someone well capitalized, you could tell them to float you 75k and bet it on the other side and give them 5k for their troubles and walk with around 20k more than 42k.

This would take some trust and coordination though.

 

[pocketrockets]

Hypothetically if you had time and knew someone well capitalized, you could tell them to float you 75k and bet it on the other side and give them 5k for their troubles and walk with around 20k more than 42k.

This would take some trust and coordination though.

If that option was available, id certainly take it... wouldnt know who to ask for that dough tho

 

[wilbur]

I cash out, 48k would fix me for 3 years easily

48k for 3 years???
wow

 

[Betallsports]

48k for 3 years???
wow

As long as he stays away from the Blow and Whores, $48K down there is like You at a AARP meeting. King of the Hill !

 

[TomGshotput]

I took it to mean the $28 to win 142k is like the 18th leg of a parlay or something like that. So at that point just a straight bet at 50/50.

Yes.

The only time it would be correct to take the payout is if you over bet your bankroll. If you would be better off with a reduced payout, you should have just bet 17 teams instead. Essentially you're asking "Would you make a bad bet to get out of a bad bet?"

Find a Kelly Criterion calculator and buy off on the other side for whatever amount it tells you to based on your current bankroll.

 

[Defying]

I gotta hedge something.

Let us know what you do and what we need to root for

EN FUEGO!

 

[festeringZit]

Sell the bet to someone who wants the risk... you could get a lot more than 48k