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I don't know enough to know I don't know
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We’ve all heard it. The teams in playoff position on Thanksgiving make the eventual playoffs in April. So I did a tad of research. Since my time, and attention span, is dwindling I only went back the last two years. Or since they created the present day divisional set up.

Of the 32 teams that were in playoff position on the fourth Thursday of November, six failed to make the playoffs. In other words, 84% did.

However the percentage sky rockets if you sit in the top three seeds of your division. Of those 24 teams only 1 failed to make the playoffs. The 2013-14 Washington Capitals barely sat in third place of the Metropolitan Division. They were just one point ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes who sat out of the playoff picture entirely. Translation, the Caps didn’t exactly tear it up in the first 20 games.

The bottom line is, if you sit in the top three spots of your division on Thanksgiving you have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. At least according to the last two seasons.



Interesting note: The Toronto Maple Leaf were in wild card position for both years and of course puked it up each time.

Meanwhile Mike Babcock boosts they are only 3 points out and, “we would like to be in playoff position”. I say, be careful for what you wish for.


This year looks particularly tight with numerous teams on the bubble. I’ll give this thread a few more days to marinate, until Thursday’s turkey, and see what the standings tell us. Maybe we can find some value on a future. Who knows.
 

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Looking good for the Kings sitting on the top. I don't think I can remember them ever winning a division title ever. They're perfect in OT this year, huge difference from last season.
 

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Looking good for the Kings sitting on the top. I don't think I can remember them ever winning a division title ever. They're perfect in OT this year, huge difference from last season.

They should cruise in that division this year. 16/1, (currently at 5dimes and sportbet), is a generous number considering their first round series would be against a wildcard team, (providing they win the division).
 

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They should cruise in that division this year. 16/1, (currently at 5dimes and sportbet), is a generous number considering their first round series would be against a wildcard team, (providing they win the division).

That is generous. I have three Nevada apps which has it 8-1, 7-1, and 6-1.
 

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Montreal
Ottawa
Boston

NY Rangers
Washington
Pittsburgh

NY Islanders
Detroit

All in as of today. Tampa Bay really is the only team currently out of post season position that has any chance of unseeding Detroit, Boston, or Pittsburgh. New Jersey has little chance of doing the same.


Dallas
St Louis
Nashville

Los Angeles
San Jose
Vancouver

Chicago
Minnesota

I suppose you could argue Anaheim could make up 4 points against Vancouver but beyond that I can’t see much change in these 8 teams.

Using 5dimes numbers the longest shot for these 16 teams, not surprisingly, is Vancouver at 45/1.

New York Rangers +700
Dallas Stars +725
Montreal Canadiens +850
Washington Capitals +1200
Chicago Blackhawks +1300
Minnesota Wild +1300
Los Angeles Kings +1400
St Louis Blues +1400
Nashville Predators +1600
Tampa Bay Lightning +1800
Anaheim Ducks +1900
New York Islanders +2000
Pittsburgh Penguins +2200
Detroit Red Wings +3300
San Jose Sharks +3500
Boston Bruins +4000
Ottawa Senators +4000
Winnipeg Jets +4000
Vancouver Canucks +4500

Using the theory that you need 3 components to win the cup, Solid goaltender, a dominant defenseman, and strength down the middle, the list narrows.

Montreal +850, (Price’s health?)
Washington +1200
Chicago +1300
Kings +1400
Blues +1400

Even though they are not in playoff position at this time you need to consider Tampa Bay as well at +1800 (Stamkos, Bishop, Hedman)

Can anyone else make an argument for any other team?

I still say the Kings offer the best value with the most realistic expectations to run the table.
 

I don't know enough to know I don't know
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Of the 32 teams that were in playoff position on the fourth Thursday of November, six failed to make the playoffs. In other words, 84% did.

However the percentage sky rockets if you sit in the top three seeds of your division. Of those 24 teams only 1 failed to make the playoffs. The 2013-14 Washington Capitals barely sat in third place of the Metropolitan Division. They were just one point ahead of the Carolina Hurricanes who sat out of the playoff picture entirely. Translation, the Caps didn’t exactly tear it up in the first 20 games.

The bottom line is, if you sit in the top three spots of your division on Thanksgiving you have a 96% chance of making the playoffs. At least according to the last two seasons.

So much for that theory thanks to Boston, Montreal, and Ottawa who all sat in the top three seeds of the Atlantic on November 27 and all 3 failed to make the playoffs.

FWIW: of the remaining 13 teams in playoff position, (on 11/27), 12 held.
 

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