8th *Biggest Bet of Year* play: (Louis/Boise Under 83)

[glennlovecolleen3]

*Biggest Bet of Year* Plays:
4-3 (+3.5u)

MY FINAL AND ONLY BOWL GAME!!!!

*** Louisville/Boise st total (UNDER 83) ***

ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!!!!?!?
What in the hell are the books thinking throwing out over 80 pts for this game!!??!

Check this out.........

*Louisville has a potent offense, but ONLY 2 out of their 11 games this season went over 80 pts total!!!
*Boise st ONLY had 3 out of their 11 games that went over 80 pts total!!!

*Louisville played most of their games against weaker defenses than they'll see against Boise st.
*And boise st played against much weaker defenses compared to Louisville's defense!!

Now they play each other. These two teams will be facing each other with good defenses. So all the atrocious defenses they've been racking up points against won't be happening in this game.

Boise st is one of the better defenses in their conference and Louisville has the best defense in their conference. You might be thinking that these two teams also have the best offenses in their conference, but what happens when a strong offense goes against a pretty strong defense? The defense usually does a good job containing the offense. But remember, even if one of these teams had a mediocre defense, it still most likely won't go over 83 total. Cause all season long, these two teams combine to go over 83 pts only 5 out of their 22 games against mostly teams with weak defenses!!

On occasions where these team's(boise st and Louisville) have been scored bigger than expected on, it was on the road in their opponent's home stadium(I'm sure a lot of it has to do with them taking the game for granted or their opponents, playing at home, raised their offensive game or their opponent's scoring extra garbage pts against replacement players boise st and louisville had put in late in the game when it was pretty much decided).

BUT THIS IS A BOWL GAME!! Everything is on the line!!! No luxury of anyone's homefield advantage, no taking this game for granted, and I don't see any team dominated the other, so no blowouts and no garbage points. This will be a war. The defenses will offset the other's great offenses. Again, these two teams have been facing very poor defenses pretty much the whole season, but not in this game against each other.

Louisville key defensive stats:

*Louisville held 6 of their 11 opponents to under 10 points this season.
*Louisville was the only team to shutout Kentucky this season.
*Louisville was the only team to shutout North Carolina this season.
*Louisvielle was the only team to hold East Carolina to it's lowest total this season(7 pts).
*Louisville(along with South Carolina) was the only teams to hold South Florida to single digit scoring this season.
*Louisville(with only two other teams) held Cincy to 7 or less points this season.
*Louisville (along with miss st) was the only teams to hold Tulane to single digit scoring this season(7 pts).

Boise st's key defensive stats:

*Boise st (along with only two other teams) held Idaho to only 7 pts this season.
*Boise st held Fresno st strong offense to it's lowest scoring game this season(only 16 pts).
*Boise st held Hawaii's potent passing offense to only 3 pts!!! Lowest scoring total for Hawaii this season(or any season I can remember).
*Boise st held Louis tech to only 14 pts. Only Auburn & Miami's defenses held louis tech to lower scoring this season.

Want even more convincing?!?! Check this out.....

*Louisville's has not allowed their opponent's top rusher to gain over 100 yards this season, except for one game.
*Boise st also has not allowed their opponent's top rusher to gain over 100 yards this season, except for one game.

These two teams won't be busting several big runs against each other's tough rush defenses. These teams might get a lot of hard 2 or 3 yard gains on the ground which is fine, because it will eat tons of clock. When they go for the pass, both teams have linebacker's and secondary's with quickness that converge to the ball very well. Louisville gang tackles extremely well all over the field, and Hawaii's potent pass attack could do nothing against Boise st's secondary. These teams should stuff the run really well, and I don't think these teams will allow the receivers to gain much yards after the catch.

They're offenses are good enough to move down the field, but the drives will be time consuming. I see these teams punting a lot more than usual and if these two teams do drive it down into the other's red zone, I see them ending up going for the 3 pt field goals more times than they usually settle for, compared to getting 7 pts against their usual weak opponents they've feasted on during the season.

Look at ESPN's last regular season ncaa football game, we've seen Mich st's power game against Hawaii's most horrible defense, and Hawaii's potent pass attack against Mich st's avg defense, with all the big offensive plays in that game and weak defensive plays, they both still couldn't reach 80 pts!! I don't see Louisville's and Boise st's solid defenses allowing a whopping 83 total pts to be scored on each other!! Jumping on this one!!!

Goodluck!!!

 

[ppeter]

You make VERY compelling arguments, thanks for breaking this one down.

 

[muffinman]

Glen,

I couldn't agree more. Also thinking the 14 pts for Boise is a bit too much. This should be a great game. Faught right down to the wire on both sides of the ball.
Bol my friend,

 

[ElIguana]

GLC3, 80 points is a TON. I like the under based on Louisville's D and the high total, but you must be joking about Boise's D?!!!???? The Broncos can play adequate D on the Smurf Turf, but this is the same team that needed 3 OTs to beat San Jose State, and there were over 100 points scored in that game!!!!!

You mention holding Idaho to 7 points.....Idaho is HORRIBLE. You mention holding Hawaii to 3 points? Hawaii plays HORRIBLY off the island. And BOTH of these games were on the Smurf Turf. Look at the points they give up on the road to powerhouses like UTEP, Tulsa, SJSU, and Nevada. (cough!) You could say Boise is a lot like Hawaii in terms of home field advantage.

I'm not trying to be disrespectful, Glenn, but I hope you aren't putting too much stock in this play because of Boise's D. I'll play the under based on Louisville's defense and the high total. GL


Muffinman, 14 points is a lot of chalk, but Louisville has gone up against the big boys and produced. I can't see the Broncos hanging with them. GLTA

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

GLC3, 80 points is a TON. I like the under based on Louisville's D and the high total, but you must be joking about Boise's D?!!!???? The Broncos can play adequate D on the Smurf Turf, but this is the same team that needed 3 OTs to beat San Jose State, and there were over 100 points scored in that game!!!!!

True, but their are always games that are exceptions to the rule. Almost every team has played games under their potential on defense on the road during the season(especially when you go in expecting to win). Despite that, only 3 out of Boise st's 11 games have gone over 83 pts.

You mention holding Idaho to 7 points.....Idaho is HORRIBLE. You mention holding Hawaii to 3 points? Hawaii plays HORRIBLY off the island. And BOTH of these games were on the Smurf Turf.

That's still pretty impressive. i can't remember the last time Hawaii was held to only 3 pts? Most of the points opponents scored on Boise st has come on the opponent's homefield, but in this bowl game, it's neutral, which I think makes a difference. Even if Louisville can move the ball effectively on boise st, they've been doing that to weaker defenses most of the season and Louisville could only go over 83 pts only 2 out of their 11 games themselves.

Look at the points they give up on the road to powerhouses like UTEP, Tulsa, SJSU, and Nevada. (cough!) You could say Boise is a lot like Hawaii in terms of home field advantage.

I don't think it has much to do on the road as it does to playing in their opponent's "homefield." This is an away game, but is not being played on Louisville's homefield. Boise on their home turf is a big game for them, and same for Louisville, but a bowl game on national tv, even on another field, this automatically turns into a big game for both teams. I think these two teams will bring their "A" game on defense which will offset their great offenses.

I'm not trying to be disrespectful, Glenn, but I hope you aren't putting too much stock in this play because of Boise's D. I'll play the under based on Louisville's defense and the high total. GL

You make good points, and you're right, I'm not putting to much stock in Boise st's defense, I'm basing this play mainly on Louisville's defense. But you got to admit, Boise st holding their opponents top rusher for less than 100 yards in 10 out of the 11 games this season is pretty impressive, no matter what conference you're playing in. And Boise st is extremely well coached. They play sound football and for the last 2 seasons, they've been undefeated, ranked 15th or better the last two season, two wac championships, undefeated on national tv. I doubt they let Louisville come in and walk all over them. Should be a good game.

 

[ElIguana]

Great rebuttals, GLC3. I think we're splitting hairs but both on the same side (under). You make a great argument that a team doesn't go 11-0 two years in a row without at least a modicum of defense. I'm sure Boise's D is helped by their offense, who usually has the ball and is scoring, putting opponents in a "come from behind" position. We'll see what happens, but you gotta love going against such a high total. GL

P.S. What happened to Glennlovecolleen1 and Glennlovecolleen2....ex-loves?

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

We'll see what happens, but you gotta love going against such a high total. GL

P.S. What happened to Glennlovecolleen1 and Glennlovecolleen2....ex-loves?

Here is another stat that will blow your mind, and will give you even more confidence on the Under 83 total......

Out of the 25 ranked teams this season that played a total of over 250 games against all kinds of competition, ONLY 11 of those games hit 83 or more total points.

ONLY 11 OUT OF 250+ GAMES !!!!! How can you resist that trend.

PS: About the username, when i take a break from here, I keep forgetting the password so I sign up with a new name.

 

[ElIguana]

I thought you only dated girls named "Colleen" and had to start calling them Colleen1, Colleen2, Colleen 3 to keep them apart.....or maybe you name your dogs Colleen. Your answer makes more sense, but mine it more interesting. GL with this under and the rest of the bowl games.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

The true story... is that I had a crush on Colleen Haskell
http://www.hissandpop.com/celebrities/h/colleenhaskell/photos/017.jpg
the girl on the very first Survivor, and my name being Glenn, it all came together to form my username. I have no idea what's she doing today.

You got the Under, too, huh. That means goodluck to both of us!!! I'm very confident about this one.

 

[GoSooners]

I couldn't disagree with you more on the totals. I think this game could very well go over. I'll give you the fact that both of these teams have stopped some of their weaker opponents this year. But both defenses have been inconsistant at best. Louisville has given up over 40 points on 2 different occasions this year. And they were in a high scoring dogfight with powerhouse Houston before finally pulling away in the 4th quarter. As for Boise the case is even worse. When you get them off the "smurf turf" they can be a very average team. ESPECIALLY on defense. They gave up over 40 pts. twice this season and had to outscore the other teams to win. And we're not talking powerhouses here. This is Tulsa and San Jose for gawd sakes. Louisville would have killed those 2 teams blindfolded. I can easily see Lousiville's potent offense scoring 14 points a quarter on Boise.
I would love to have seen Bosie play teams like Memphis, Miami or North Carolina on the road this year. They would have got beat. And bad. Louisville's schedule has been way better. And it's going to show when they lay about 60 points on the Boise boys. Get ready for Boise's 20 odd game winning streak to come to a screeching halt. Louisvile don't have that great of a defense either. They'll have a few backdoor points scored on them. I'm thinkin about a 63-28 game. But the best bet here is to take Louisville -14 and go to the bank.:finger:

 

[MrGoodDr]

The total does appear a tad high. But after reading all the info on this game, like Sooners mentioned Niether team has Any defense..........No D=Points and a galore amount of em too !!

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Louisville has given up over 40 points on 2 different occasions this year.

As for Boise the case is even worse. When you get them off the "smurf turf" they can be a very average team. ESPECIALLY on defense. They gave up over 40 pts. twice this season and had to outscore the other teams to win. And we're not talking powerhouses here. This is Tulsa and San Jose for gawd sakes.

You make good examples of 2 games Louiseville had and the 2 games boise had that showed a chink in their armor on defense.

But lets look at two Oklahoma games:

Sooners barely beat Ok st 38-35
and
Sooners barely beat Texas A&M 42-35

Now seeing how great the Sooner defense is, how did they allow those teams to tack 35 pts on them. Yes, Ok st and tex am are pretty good teams, but the Sooner's great defense should have still held them to less than 35 pts.

Even the Sooners or any defense going into another team's homefield, can play not up to their standards during the long season.

Most of the teams in the nation have games where their offense or defense doesn't play up to their potential, whether it be because of complacency, taking the game for granted, or whatever psychological state that might affect them that certain week. Theirs usually a few games during a team's season where their are exceptions to the rule where complacency(added on with the opponents rising up to the occasion, especially on their homefields, to fight harder than they usually do). For instance, the games you mentioned, and my examples with the sooners.

I take those things into consideration and bet against the Sooners in both of those games and won.

Louisville would have killed those 2 teams blindfolded. I can easily see Lousiville's potent offense scoring 14 points a quarter on Boise.
I would love to have seen Bosie play teams like Memphis, Miami or North Carolina on the road this year. They would have got beat. And bad.

Louisville could have killed them, depending how motivated and tough the other team decided to play on that given day. When Memphis decided to play inspired tough football, they played Louisville tough. I agree miami would beat Boise(in Miami that is), but not sure about the other two. Boise st, if they don't blow you out, they find a way to stay close and pull it out in the end. You don't go undefeated in any conference 2 years in a row and suddenly just let some team, any team, just take that streak away easily.

Louisville's schedule has been way better. And it's going to show when they lay about 60 points on the Boise boys. Get ready for Boise's 20 odd game winning streak to come to a screeching halt.

I don't see boise's defense allowing louisville to score 60 pts, not even 50 pts on boise. Boise is extremely well coached. They have great ball control on offense that will eat time off the clock so Louisville won't see as much offensive opportunities as they had during the season against weaker teams. Boise st is ranked 10th in the nation, they are no push overs.

Louisvile don't have that great of a defense either. They'll have a few backdoor points scored on them. I'm thinkin about a 63-28 game. But the best bet here is to take Louisville -14 and go to the bank.:finger:

Louisville had games that were exceptions to the rule, in which they did allow teams to score a lot on them, but you have to look at the other games, too. Louisville shutout kentucky. Not even Auburn's defense could do that(and that game was in Auburn, too), no team in the SEC could achieve that feat. And Louisville also shutout north carolina this season(and that was at North Carolina). Not even Virginia's, Fl st's, and Utah's D could do that(And all those three games were at those 3 team's homefield). No ACC team could achieve a shutout on NC except for Louisville's D. You have to look at the overall season against those big conference schools, too.

None of these teams will be taking this game for granted, it's a bowl game, national tv, I think this will be a tough game, I don't see Boise just letting Louisville, a team that played mostly mediocre competition(except for Miami) this season to just roll on them. When you think about it, Boise st is ranked 10th in the nation, even higher than Miami Fl. And on a neutral field, like this game will be on, Boise st would have trouble with Miami Fl, but would beat every other team Louisville played this season.

 

[Teddykgb]

vegasinsider has there projected total at 59 in there "match-up" section. they do quite well with those, wish i had a tracked record for their "match-up" plays as every time i check they seem to do quite well. good luck

 

[GoSooners]

GlennLove, you make some good points with Boise about motivation factors and the fact that defenses don't always play up to snuff. But I have the same problem with the WAC conference as I do the Sunbelt. Their very weak conferences overall. And your lucky if you get 3 teams each out of those conferences with winning records at the end of the year. There's 2 reasons for that. They lose all of their non-conference games against stiffer competetion. And they don't play good fundamental defense, and so end up beating up on each other. The WAC has always been one of the most inconsistant and hardest to handicap conferences in football. And most of it comes from too much offense and too little defense.
As for OU, you can't hardly compare 2 top 20 teams that the Sooners played and Tulsa and San Jose. That's 2 totally different levels of football. OU's main problem with OSU was the Sooners special teams play which gave up an easy 14 points to OSU that day. Or else that game wouldn't have been near that close. As for Texas A&M, I'm not going to use too many excuses except to say OU didn't have their best 2 defensive cornerbacks for that game. Perkins was hurt and the talented Marcus Walker was taken out of redshirt for the next game. And if you watched that game you would have saw that OU made adjustments at the half and did a good job of keeping A&M out of the endzone in second half. And if you've ever been to College Station, TX. you would know how hard it is to win a game there. Remember, when OU won the national championship in 2000, that team also had a bunch of points scored on them by A&M in College Station. And it took a last minute TD interception to pull that one out.
People handicap games in different ways. I'm one of those who is a big believer in the level of competetion a team faces during the year. And how well that team is playing at the end of the year. The level of competetion for Louisville was much better than Boise's. I believe that will carry through to their bowl game.
As for the over/under. I usually try to stay away from totals unless i can't find a winner. But games like this where the ball is going to be up in the air more than on the ground, alot of things can happen. Barry Switzer used to say when you throw a pass 3 things can happen. And 2 of them are bad. I think I'll just stay on the safer side and take my chances with Louisville.
Good luck.

 

[BALLBREAKER]

Louisville will score every fvcking position.......You better hope Louie's D is as good as you think.



I'll be playing Over for 5Units maybe 10

This game will be in the 100's..........Ok 99



Louie will put up 70 themselves...........You don't think Boise can score 14



I DO:howdy:



Take LOUISVILLE AND THE OVER and this will be the easiest play of the BOWL SEASON

Sorry to burst your bubble:monkey:

LOUIE 71
BOISE 28

PEACE:drink:

 

[SportSavant]

ballbreaker,

seeing as there is not an ounce of intelligence in your post with a thread that is otherwise full of good insights & info, I dont think you are breaking abybody's bubble.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Guess what?!?! The total can be found at 78.5 all the way down from 83!!!! I hope you guys jumped on the U83 when I first posted this play on here several weeks ago!!

PS: Ballbreaker,

since you're so sure it would go over 83, then 78.5 is even a better number for you!!! Heck, forget 10 units, drop your whole bank account on the over now. Heh heh!! Just playing with you. Maybe the total will end up 80 and we both can win!!!

Everybody!!!

Their are too much reasons(as I posted already in these threads) to take the under. For those who didn't take the under early on, the value dropped now that the total changed drastically, but all I can say is whoever jumped on this play early, let's take this one to the bank!!!

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Game is finally here guys!!!

Should be good, but I might be out having a few drinks for New Year's eve. To bad no Colleen though. Oh well. If I don't catch the game, I'll check out the highlights on espn.

Happy New Year's Eve everyone!!

 

[BlueRaider70]

Have enjoyed reading the back and forth in this thread the past 15 days, thanks for the input. I hope the total is 80 points and everyone is HAPPY.

Blue Raider

 

[FNGinFL]

Love Louisville at -whatever as well as the rest of you that do. I'm thinking this is going to be more of a home game for Louisville, since it's being played in Memphis. The weather is going to be in the 60's all game long with good weather too!

After actually watching the debacle in San Jose earlier this year, LeFors will absolutely pick this Boise 'D' apart. You keep talking about how smart the Boise coaching staff is, but Petrino has more experience, and his asst coaches have been doing it against bigger and better quality opponents all year long. When the Boise defense starts to get down on themselves, a la San Jose and Tulsa this year, the holes really start to manifest themselves, and Chris Carr, their starting safety, probably will not play today because of his collar bone.

Ballbreaker, wholeheartedly agree that Louisville will probably put up 70 all by themselves today in an absolute, fun-to-watch rout, like the Hawaii/Boise flailing-exercise we watched earlier this year.

GL everybody! :digit: