December 17th - Day #1
Hopefully everyone has a great bowl season! Enjoy...
College Football - Temple Owls @ Wyoming Cowboys - Saturday December 17, 2011 2:00 pm
ATS: Wyoming Cowboys +7 (-110)
Never in the history of NCAA Division One football wagering have more people been up to date and familiar with the specifics of a Temple Owls football team. Every single person is aware of the exact details on how bad of a mis-match the Owls are for the Cowboys defense.
I hate to admit it, but it is the truth. Temple should be able to steamroll the Cowboys defense today with the rush. However, I have no issues with that. This will result in a shorter game, and a difficult number for the Owls to cover, especially against a team that does not make mistakes.
Wyoming ranked fourth in the nation this season in turnover margin at +15. They ranked 25th in penalties against, giving up just 47 yards of penalized territory each game. This Wyoming team is extremely smart and disciplined, two factors that play a key role especially with a dog catching a touchdown in a bowl game.
Temple lacks the passing game. The Owls are so one dimensional, they have failed to crack the 100 yard mark through the air in four of their final six games. This means the Wyoming defense can completely sell out to the run, dropping safeties and line backers into the box. I do not expect the Cowboys to shut down the Owls running game, but I expect them to turn in what are usually 3 or 4 play drives into 8 or 9 play drives, therefore taking six or seven minutes off the clock per possession.
The Cowboys will counter the rushing attack with a effective pass product. The offensive line has a massive advantage over the Temple defensive front. All season the Cowboys O-line surrendered just 11 sacks. Quarterback Brett Smith has an extremely quick release and has been able to nullify any pass rush teams have thrown at him. He is also quite mobile. His pocket presence is fantastic. Quick passes moving the chains for long sustained drives should be a dime a dozen today.
Pinnacle opened this line up at 6.5. I opened it at 7 in anticipation of the line being driven up. What happened? Line moved up to 7.5. The money that swirled in early in Curacao at Pinnacle caused most other books up along the Northern Caribbean to open at 7 and a juiced 7. Pinnacle was the last book to have a 6.5 in this game and left it available for more then 14 hours after each book opened. As we all know Simon Noble takes some of the biggest bets from some of the sharpest players. Him leaving this line short and offering a free hook tells me something, just like it should tell you. 5Dimes countered with a flat 7 shortly after the line opened up in Pinnacle, they have remained flat since open.
Reports I am getting from multiple locations show that the public is supporting Temple in upwards of 69%. A offset in this action typically generates a movement of 1.5 points. This line has moved maybe half a point at some spots. Major comfort being shown by not only myself, but bookmakers worldwide when it comes to accepting action on the Owls of Temple.
This line is inflated by a field goal. I feel this should be a true 4 point spread, being able to get the action I did leaves me comfortable hanging a 7 with Temple, especially at the key number. Wyoming does not give anything up. I expect a full 60 minutes from the Cowboys, and a very efficient 60 minutes at that. Rarely can you feel confident in an underdog making the right decision the entire game, that is exactly what you will get from Wyoming.
This will be a one possession game either way, feel very safe in taking the points here and it is simply a few too many.
Wyoming +7.
College Football - Utah State Aggies @ Ohio Bobcats - Saturday December 17, 2011 5:30 pm
MONEYLINE: Utah State -120
The biggest line movement on the first day of bowl season, also resulted in a major buyback situation. I opened with Utah State -3 over the Ohio Bobcats. I was quickly flooded with action driving the line down to a pick em. Once I hit the pick mark, I had a major buy back on the Aggies driving this line back up to 2.5. I currently have it at -2 (-105).
This seems to be the case at a couple of other books. Looking at 5Dimes, you see a similar scenario. Tony Williams opened up this line at -3 and had it bet down to -1 within 24 hours of open. Since then it has made its way back up to 3 and now back to -1.
Many books have been getting a tremendous amount of Ohio action simply because they are the more recognized team. They are also getting a lot of action based on their two playmakers, Tyler Tettelton and Devon Brazill. These two lit up a Wednesday Night ESPN game against the Temple Owls and gained a lot of respect winning as a three point dog straight up. Not many people have seen the Utah State Aggies play and many are unaware with how good their offense really is.
The Aggies rank 20th in total offense, 21st in a scoring offense and 6th on the ground in the entire nation. Ohio ranks middle of the pack defensively and 40th against the rush. Utah State relies on the run opening up the pass, they should have no issues doing it the other way around today. Ohio virtually has no pass rush and will struggle with pressure all day long against an offense line made up of three seniors and a sophomore center who could be Sunday Football bound in a year or two. Utah State can dictate the game however they please on offense. They cause major mismatched up the field with their run game off a spread offense. In order to shut down the Aggies a team must be extremely assignment disciplined and match up orientated. Ohio is not that. Utah State should not have any issues moving the ball today.
Ohio is not as physical as Utah State is on defense, I think this is where the game is won. Utah State is holding teams to an amazing 34% on third down conversions. Since this game is going to be dictated by offense, the team getting the stops and gaining a slight edge in momentum will make all the difference. Utah State ranks among the best in not allowing big plays which will be huge today. Utah State needs to utilize their inside line backing duo of Gallagher and Wagner to shut down the Bobcats on first and second down and be able to pin their ears back and bring a rush on third, stopping drives and saving momentum. Ohio is not capable of stopping this Aggies defense to the degree the Aggies can stop the Bobcats. This game is expected to be close, but the Aggies get the edge.
Despite what the records say, the better team today is Utah State and no one should be fooled by the line movement. That was a major buy-back scenario and appears false to the contrary belief. Reports I am getting from various locations show an action offset of Ohio 54% and Utah State 46%, offering a virtual green card for all bookmakers after the initial surge of action 8 days ago.
Give me Utah State outright to get the job done in the Potato Bowl.
Hopefully everyone has a great bowl season! Enjoy...
College Football - Temple Owls @ Wyoming Cowboys - Saturday December 17, 2011 2:00 pm
ATS: Wyoming Cowboys +7 (-110)
Never in the history of NCAA Division One football wagering have more people been up to date and familiar with the specifics of a Temple Owls football team. Every single person is aware of the exact details on how bad of a mis-match the Owls are for the Cowboys defense.
I hate to admit it, but it is the truth. Temple should be able to steamroll the Cowboys defense today with the rush. However, I have no issues with that. This will result in a shorter game, and a difficult number for the Owls to cover, especially against a team that does not make mistakes.
Wyoming ranked fourth in the nation this season in turnover margin at +15. They ranked 25th in penalties against, giving up just 47 yards of penalized territory each game. This Wyoming team is extremely smart and disciplined, two factors that play a key role especially with a dog catching a touchdown in a bowl game.
Temple lacks the passing game. The Owls are so one dimensional, they have failed to crack the 100 yard mark through the air in four of their final six games. This means the Wyoming defense can completely sell out to the run, dropping safeties and line backers into the box. I do not expect the Cowboys to shut down the Owls running game, but I expect them to turn in what are usually 3 or 4 play drives into 8 or 9 play drives, therefore taking six or seven minutes off the clock per possession.
The Cowboys will counter the rushing attack with a effective pass product. The offensive line has a massive advantage over the Temple defensive front. All season the Cowboys O-line surrendered just 11 sacks. Quarterback Brett Smith has an extremely quick release and has been able to nullify any pass rush teams have thrown at him. He is also quite mobile. His pocket presence is fantastic. Quick passes moving the chains for long sustained drives should be a dime a dozen today.
Pinnacle opened this line up at 6.5. I opened it at 7 in anticipation of the line being driven up. What happened? Line moved up to 7.5. The money that swirled in early in Curacao at Pinnacle caused most other books up along the Northern Caribbean to open at 7 and a juiced 7. Pinnacle was the last book to have a 6.5 in this game and left it available for more then 14 hours after each book opened. As we all know Simon Noble takes some of the biggest bets from some of the sharpest players. Him leaving this line short and offering a free hook tells me something, just like it should tell you. 5Dimes countered with a flat 7 shortly after the line opened up in Pinnacle, they have remained flat since open.
Reports I am getting from multiple locations show that the public is supporting Temple in upwards of 69%. A offset in this action typically generates a movement of 1.5 points. This line has moved maybe half a point at some spots. Major comfort being shown by not only myself, but bookmakers worldwide when it comes to accepting action on the Owls of Temple.
This line is inflated by a field goal. I feel this should be a true 4 point spread, being able to get the action I did leaves me comfortable hanging a 7 with Temple, especially at the key number. Wyoming does not give anything up. I expect a full 60 minutes from the Cowboys, and a very efficient 60 minutes at that. Rarely can you feel confident in an underdog making the right decision the entire game, that is exactly what you will get from Wyoming.
This will be a one possession game either way, feel very safe in taking the points here and it is simply a few too many.
Wyoming +7.
College Football - Utah State Aggies @ Ohio Bobcats - Saturday December 17, 2011 5:30 pm
MONEYLINE: Utah State -120
The biggest line movement on the first day of bowl season, also resulted in a major buyback situation. I opened with Utah State -3 over the Ohio Bobcats. I was quickly flooded with action driving the line down to a pick em. Once I hit the pick mark, I had a major buy back on the Aggies driving this line back up to 2.5. I currently have it at -2 (-105).
This seems to be the case at a couple of other books. Looking at 5Dimes, you see a similar scenario. Tony Williams opened up this line at -3 and had it bet down to -1 within 24 hours of open. Since then it has made its way back up to 3 and now back to -1.
Many books have been getting a tremendous amount of Ohio action simply because they are the more recognized team. They are also getting a lot of action based on their two playmakers, Tyler Tettelton and Devon Brazill. These two lit up a Wednesday Night ESPN game against the Temple Owls and gained a lot of respect winning as a three point dog straight up. Not many people have seen the Utah State Aggies play and many are unaware with how good their offense really is.
The Aggies rank 20th in total offense, 21st in a scoring offense and 6th on the ground in the entire nation. Ohio ranks middle of the pack defensively and 40th against the rush. Utah State relies on the run opening up the pass, they should have no issues doing it the other way around today. Ohio virtually has no pass rush and will struggle with pressure all day long against an offense line made up of three seniors and a sophomore center who could be Sunday Football bound in a year or two. Utah State can dictate the game however they please on offense. They cause major mismatched up the field with their run game off a spread offense. In order to shut down the Aggies a team must be extremely assignment disciplined and match up orientated. Ohio is not that. Utah State should not have any issues moving the ball today.
Ohio is not as physical as Utah State is on defense, I think this is where the game is won. Utah State is holding teams to an amazing 34% on third down conversions. Since this game is going to be dictated by offense, the team getting the stops and gaining a slight edge in momentum will make all the difference. Utah State ranks among the best in not allowing big plays which will be huge today. Utah State needs to utilize their inside line backing duo of Gallagher and Wagner to shut down the Bobcats on first and second down and be able to pin their ears back and bring a rush on third, stopping drives and saving momentum. Ohio is not capable of stopping this Aggies defense to the degree the Aggies can stop the Bobcats. This game is expected to be close, but the Aggies get the edge.
Despite what the records say, the better team today is Utah State and no one should be fooled by the line movement. That was a major buy-back scenario and appears false to the contrary belief. Reports I am getting from various locations show an action offset of Ohio 54% and Utah State 46%, offering a virtual green card for all bookmakers after the initial surge of action 8 days ago.
Give me Utah State outright to get the job done in the Potato Bowl.