TheVegasJack Bowl Game Thread...

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December 17th - Day #1

Hopefully everyone has a great bowl season! Enjoy...



College Football - Temple Owls @ Wyoming Cowboys - Saturday December 17, 2011 2:00 pm

ATS: Wyoming Cowboys +7 (-110)

 

Never in the history of NCAA Division One football wagering have more people been up to date and familiar with the specifics of a Temple Owls football team. Every single person is aware of the exact details on how bad of a mis-match the Owls are for the Cowboys defense.

I hate to admit it, but it is the truth. Temple should be able to steamroll the Cowboys defense today with the rush. However, I have no issues with that. This will result in a shorter game, and a difficult number for the Owls to cover, especially against a team that does not make mistakes.

Wyoming ranked fourth in the nation this season in turnover margin at +15. They ranked 25th in penalties against, giving up just 47 yards of penalized territory each game. This Wyoming team is extremely smart and disciplined, two factors that play a key role especially with a dog catching a touchdown in a bowl game.

Temple lacks the passing game. The Owls are so one dimensional, they have failed to crack the 100 yard mark through the air in four of their final six games. This means the Wyoming defense can completely sell out to the run, dropping safeties and line backers into the box. I do not expect the Cowboys to shut down the Owls running game, but I expect them to turn in what are usually 3 or 4 play drives into 8 or 9 play drives, therefore taking six or seven minutes off the clock per possession.

The Cowboys will counter the rushing attack with a effective pass product. The offensive line has a massive advantage over the Temple defensive front. All season the Cowboys O-line surrendered just 11 sacks. Quarterback Brett Smith has an extremely quick release and has been able to nullify any pass rush teams have thrown at him. He is also quite mobile. His pocket presence is fantastic. Quick passes moving the chains for long sustained drives should be a dime a dozen today.

Pinnacle opened this line up at 6.5. I opened it at 7 in anticipation of the line being driven up. What happened? Line moved up to 7.5. The money that swirled in early in Curacao at Pinnacle caused most other books up along the Northern Caribbean to open at 7 and a juiced 7. Pinnacle was the last book to have a 6.5 in this game and left it available for more then 14 hours after each book opened. As we all know Simon Noble takes some of the biggest bets from some of the sharpest players. Him leaving this line short and offering a free hook tells me something, just like it should tell you. 5Dimes countered with a flat 7 shortly after the line opened up in Pinnacle, they have remained flat since open.

Reports I am getting from multiple locations show that the public is supporting Temple in upwards of 69%. A offset in this action typically generates a movement of 1.5 points. This line has moved maybe half a point at some spots. Major comfort being shown by not only myself, but bookmakers worldwide when it comes to accepting action on the Owls of Temple.

This line is inflated by a field goal. I feel this should be a true 4 point spread, being able to get the action I did leaves me comfortable hanging a 7 with Temple, especially at the key number. Wyoming does not give anything up. I expect a full 60 minutes from the Cowboys, and a very efficient 60 minutes at that. Rarely can you feel confident in an underdog making the right decision the entire game, that is exactly what you will get from Wyoming.

This will be a one possession game either way, feel very safe in taking the points here and it is simply a few too many.

Wyoming +7.

 

 

College Football - Utah State Aggies @ Ohio Bobcats - Saturday December 17, 2011 5:30 pm

MONEYLINE: Utah State -120

 

The biggest line movement on the first day of bowl season, also resulted in a major buyback situation. I opened with Utah State -3 over the Ohio Bobcats. I was quickly flooded with action driving the line down to a pick em. Once I hit the pick mark, I had a major buy back on the Aggies driving this line back up to 2.5. I currently have it at -2 (-105).

This seems to be the case at a couple of other books. Looking at 5Dimes, you see a similar scenario. Tony Williams opened up this line at -3 and had it bet down to -1 within 24 hours of open. Since then it has made its way back up to 3 and now back to -1.

Many books have been getting a tremendous amount of Ohio action simply because they are the more recognized team. They are also getting a lot of action based on their two playmakers, Tyler Tettelton and Devon Brazill. These two lit up a Wednesday Night ESPN game against the Temple Owls and gained a lot of respect winning as a three point dog straight up. Not many people have seen the Utah State Aggies play and many are unaware with how good their offense really is.

The Aggies rank 20th in total offense, 21st in a scoring offense and 6th on the ground in the entire nation. Ohio ranks middle of the pack defensively and 40th against the rush. Utah State relies on the run opening up the pass, they should have no issues doing it the other way around today. Ohio virtually has no pass rush and will struggle with pressure all day long against an offense line made up of three seniors and a sophomore center who could be Sunday Football bound in a year or two. Utah State can dictate the game however they please on offense. They cause major mismatched up the field with their run game off a spread offense. In order to shut down the Aggies a team must be extremely assignment disciplined and match up orientated. Ohio is not that. Utah State should not have any issues moving the ball today.

Ohio is not as physical as Utah State is on defense, I think this is where the game is won. Utah State is holding teams to an amazing 34% on third down conversions. Since this game is going to be dictated by offense, the team getting the stops and gaining a slight edge in momentum will make all the difference. Utah State ranks among the best in not allowing big plays which will be huge today. Utah State needs to utilize their inside line backing duo of Gallagher and Wagner to shut down the Bobcats on first and second down and be able to pin their ears back and bring a rush on third, stopping drives and saving momentum. Ohio is not capable of stopping this Aggies defense to the degree the Aggies can stop the Bobcats. This game is expected to be close, but the Aggies get the edge.

Despite what the records say, the better team today is Utah State and no one should be fooled by the line movement. That was a major buy-back scenario and appears false to the contrary belief. Reports I am getting from various locations show an action offset of Ohio 54% and Utah State 46%, offering a virtual green card for all bookmakers after the initial surge of action 8 days ago.

Give me Utah State outright to get the job done in the Potato Bowl.
 

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College Football - UL Lafayette Ragin Cajuns @ San Diego State Aztecs - Saturday December 17, 2011 9:00 pm
TOTAL: Over 60 (-110)

The game no one is talking about sees the Aztecs of San Diego State take on the UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in the R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl.

This game has the lowest payout of any bowl games and will be greatly over shadowed by the Dallas Cowboys Tampa Bay Buccaneers game on the NFL Network in the same time slot.

Now, I was not sure there was a reason to back San Diego State at the line given. I was receiving conflicting reports from various locations on which way this game was being bet. I have this game set as San Diego State -5, exactly where the line is. I do not see value in either side of the game. However, that does not mean I do not see value in the total.

I am shocked that this total has not been bet up at all. This game opened at 59 at most locations and is still able to be bet over at 59 today. The action has not been one sided at all. This has been nearly an even split in wagering from what I have been told at a number of locations, which means the line is pretty fair and accurate.

I believe this total should be in the 60’s. I think ULL can poise an upset bid here today. I am not confident enough that they will in order to bet it, but I believe they can have a shot. They have the home town crowd behind them and are playing a team that is not outrageous defensively. This is also UL’s first ever bowl game appearance after the best record in school history. This team will be extremely motivated. Motivated teams always rely on what they do best, for UL it is offense. Their defense ranks in the bottom third of the nation while their offense is right in the middle at 60th.

San Diego State should have no issues using their 28th ranked rush attack to put points on the board today. Ronnie Hillman was the third leading rusher in the nation and has broken the 100 yard mark in every game but three. Unlike other running backs, Hillman is a big play back. While many people are worried about a one dimensional offense relying on the rush being detrimental to an over bet, Hillman is a big play back. He leads the nation in big rushes of 25 yards or more. Hillman is almost as effective as a strong passing game, both on the score board and against the clock.

I think there is a couple points of value here as these two teams do not jump off the page, they do not have big name players (other then Hillman) and most will be tuning into watch the NFL game. Both teams should be highly motivated and I think this will be a high scoring game. Don’t be surprised to see both teams crack the 30 point mark.
 

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Florida Intl Golden Panthers @ Marshall Thundering Herd - Tuesday December 20, 2011 8:00 pm
ATS: Marshall Thundering Herd +4.5 (-110)

Have you heard about T.Y. Hilton!?

Oh my god T.Y. Hilton is playing tonight!

You must see T.Y. Hilton play!

Oh my god T.Y. Hilton!

Who the fuck cares about T.Y. Hilton!?

Well, maybe I am getting ahead of myself. He is a phenomenal athlete and player, but good god, nobody truly knows who the hell this guy is. If I showed you a picture of T.Y. Hilton and a basketball player from say, Rutgers out of uniform, could you tell who was who? If I showed you a picture of Victor Cruz or a basketball player from Rutgers, could you tell who was who?

Odds are most people couldn’t even do BOTH of those, even though one is the most over hyped player in Division 1 football and the other is one of the most under hyped player in the NFL.

Now I am not trying to knock on everyone for not knowing athletes and their faces, but I am trying to point out how big a player can impact the betting public, especially on an isolated game.

Last night it was all about Ben Roethlisberger, tonight it is all about T.Y. Hilton.

Bowl season provides a number of isolated games that everyone has to have a bet on. This allows more and more people to simply bet on the names on the back of the jersey, not the team on the front.

Here is the meat of the write-up. The real consensus report, from all 12 betting shops that has CGS software and operates from our direction have a total of $9.32 bet on FIU for every $1 bet on Marshall. That is quite an extreme offset especially for a Tuesday bowl game, we have moved the line from -4 to -5 for FIU. Now a line movement of a point indicates an offset of slightly less than half of the present. So if this line were to accurately represent the money, it would be FIU -6.5.

However, here is the truth on the line. FIU is inflated by roughly a field goal. This has been the biggest bet bowl game of season so far, and the biggest bet game until AZU Boise. Almost all of this money is based on FIU playing close to home and you guessed it T.Y. Hilton.

Time to neutralize both of these factors. First the home town gimmick. FIU is playing 250 miles from campus, Marshall is 800 miles. Thankfully for both parties involved they have had 18 days to make the trip. Technically Marshall could have driven 44 miles an hour for one hour per day starting December 2nd, and arrived in St. Petersburg at 9am today. FIU could of driven 9 miles per day. The point I am trying to make is bowl games do not have home field advantage! Well, VJ, its about the players and where they are from. Marshall recruits out of the Sunshine State and have more then half of their roster from Florida. Home field means nothing, end of story.

T.Y. Hilton. Great player, fun to watch. Game changer? Yes. Spread changer…for perception YES, for talent, not necessarily. If T.Y. Hilton was not playing, I would of opened this spread at FIU -3 and odds are it would still be there now. Since he is playing, I opened it at -3.5 and have moved it to -5. Hilton is worth half a point to a point, the perception he brings is worth two or three points, especially against a Marshall team that is able to neutralize the FIU passing game.

Here is why. Lets take a look at FIU LM from two weeks ago. FIU ran 56 offensive plays. Hilton was thrown to 7 times and had 4 catches. Hilton amassed for 12% of the FIU offense and 25% of the total points. In his best performance Hilton totaled 21% of the FIU offense and 35% of the total points. He is not the end all be all for this team. The point I am trying to say is that FIU has more players affecting the offense miles and miles more then T.Y. Hilton, and those players are not outstanding. I don’t understand how everyone gets so dialed in on the skill players that have impact levels averaging 10-20%.

Tonight is another example, Hilton will have the usual 10-20% impact level. On the other side of the ball are two phenomenal defensive ends, specifically Vinny Curry. 99 in Green demands a double team. He is going to take two linemen, a tight end or a running back out of every single play. Curry will be on the field for 100% of defensive plays. This means another player will have an open assignment. This means with the presence of Curry, there will be a free man to help assist in covering Hilton. It will be a constant gamble of match-ups between coaches.

Offensively, the Thundering Herd have an effective 1-2 punch at running back. Everyone is raving about the FIU defense as well. Did no one notice how suspect this defense can be? They have been slashed for 180 yards or more four times this season. Marshall can send out their choice of two 500 yard plus rushers who are a completely different mix of styles.

If you wanted to have value with FIU, you had to bet this weeks ago. There is no longer value with FIU and the stock price of Marshall will only go up and up as we get closer to kickoff.

An underdog is always live especially on a neutral field when they have a strong run game and a strong defense. It is not going to be about shutting down the FIU offense, it is going to be about slowing down the FIU offense. Once Marshall gets the tempo of the game into their hands and dictate the dictators, it could be a very scary thing for those holding tickets on the self proclaimed, “Best team in Florida” tonight.

Value with Marshall tonight. I bet on SF last night, I won't be betting on this game, but I just wanted to chime in because this is getting out of hand already.
 

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Jack, thanks for the great write-up. You hit it spot on with the whole Hilton thing. He had a good game, but not enough to save FIU from losing this game. Their coach looked afraid to throw more than a 5 yard pass. I would have laid off this game if not for your write-up and the RLM as the kickoff neared.
 

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More good information!!!! Thank You very much sir. I too played this game because of your post.
 

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Thanks guys. hopefully I can make something good happen here in the last 30 bowl games. I have the national championship on ice, just need to get there.
 

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I enjoy reading the information you bring into your thread. Thanks
 

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TCU Horned Frogs @ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs – Wednesday December 21, 2011 8:00 pm
ATS: TCU Horned Frogs -9 (-110)

Yesterday went a little bit long, going to keep today a little bit shorter for those of you who don’t have tons of time to be reading all of this.

This line opened up at -11 at nearly every location. I opened up with TCU -8.5 as I was sure the number was going to move down. Sure enough, it hit 8.5 at numerous locations last night and currently sits at 9 offshore and 8.5 at all my locations. I had to move the line up to 9 earlier in the week because many people were hitting TCU as the bargain was out there in a big way.

A ton of people are over estimating the public money on this game. Almost every website on the internet has a conflicting report. If you want to know the truth about these websites and their consensus numbers, look back in my previous write-ups.

The truth is, the consensus numbers in this game are no where near what is posted online. This game had considerable LAT money early on driving the line down, but most of that has been bought back. There is just over $1.75 on TCU per $1 of LAT tonight at my 12 locations . Depending on where the line is, anywhere from 11 to 8, I estimate that even LAT could have more money on them then the Horned Frogs do.

This is a game where the consensus simply does not matter. The matchups determine the game, and they all sway heavily to TCU’s favor.

Anytime you are betting a big favorite in bowl season, you can be confident when they have two things. Strong offensive and defensive lines, and the ability to put up points. TCU is not a team that will get the cover tonight by slowing the other team down. They are a team that will get the cover going away. Rather than saying, can TCU do enough to get the cover, you can say will Louisiana Tech do enough to make this a game. I believe the answer is no.

TCU has a significant advantage at QB, RB, Oline, Dline, LB and through coaching. TCU is phenomenal on third down which is a must have when laying this many points. They ranked second in the nation only behind GT on third down efficiency. LAT, ranked 97th. The Bulldogs will not be able to keep up at the pace TCU will be hanging points on the board. This is the one time in bowl season you can be comfortable laying this many points. Right team, right match-up right scenario.

TCU wins by double digits and covers the 9 point spread.
 

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Good to see you on TCU. Got to see La. Tech. in person when they came to Starkville to play my bulldogs. I really think they will be overmatched in this one. They gave my dawgs a good game, but we had just come off back-to-back gut wrenching losses @ Auburn and at home against LSU.

Thanks for posting, I've really enjoyed your write-ups this season. Good luck!
 

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