8/25/11 Thursday Night Bonus Play from thecruncher

[thecruncher]

This game is a bit of a Random Bowl, but I have for 1* each, CAR +2.5 & CAR/CIN Under 34

A "one time only in the regular forum" here heads up on as to where you can read the write-ups for the Bonus Plays -- check the site promotion and service play forums here at therx. BOL -- gotta love 5 nights in a row of football during the preseason!

 

[douglas]

Good Luck ........you will be missed .........Continued Success .

 

[thecruncher]

Thx, douglas.

Gonna go ahead and post the write up now 15 min. before kickoff to get the juices flowing even more for some football action!

CAR@CIN_NLFx_Week #3_2011


This game features two rookie QBs in Dalton and Newton, who are projected to play lots of minutes in this game, potentially a full 3 quarters. Looking at their numbers and reading some articles, neither QB is comfortable throwing the ball to the deeper levels of the field yet. We've seen lots of throws to tight ends and running backs for both guys so far. Of Newton's 17 completions so far, only 2 have been to wide receivers, I believe.


I guess if you're going to have a new coaching staff and new quarterback, bringing them all in on the same year might make the most sense, and that is what CAR is doing this year, as they're really trying to turn around their league-worst offense of a year ago. Newton has a strong arm and the new offense is designed to be aggressive down the field, but it's been slow going so far. CAR will be bolstered by the return of deep threat S. Smith, who missed the first two preseason games but should see some playing time versus CIN. Newly acquired from CHI TE G. Olsen is already making an impact as well under the tutelage of the also newly arrived veteran TE J. Shockey. Ha! Did you just spew coffee on your keyboard and monitor? Just kidding about the tutelage part, but those are a couple of good ball catching TE's Newton has to work with. The offensive weapons are there for CAR to really improve its pass game and overall offense this year, but it is all down to Newton. He readily admitted in an interview this last week that his mental processing in reading defenses and making quick decisions is just not there yet.


Speaking of weapons, you will probably find more of them on the rap sheets of CIN players over the last number of years than on the field for them this year. CIN deemed themselves low enough on wide receivers to actually bring in a couple more off the street this past week. They are getting RB B. Scott back this week, which will help. Starting RB C. Benson only averaged 2 yards per carry on 7 runs last week at NYJ, and the team overall only averaged 2.1. Even when playing from far behind against DET in week #1 they only averaged 3.3 yards per carry. Their run defense has been pretty good, but playing from behind you expect to encounter more runs. CAR's starting running backs are a better duo than CIN's, but J. Stewart of CAR is yet to see action this year with a sore achilles, and is “?” for the CIN game. CAR will still be without two of its starting offensive linemen, which hurt them last week, but have locked up center Kalil to a long-term contract, and he's considered one of the best in the league.


When CIN's offensive coach says: “We started with a very low standard so we have nowhere to go but up. We have to make do with what we have and make the most of it.” I'm not sensing the same optimism on offense as CAR has, even if both teams have struggled so far, lol. Sadly for CIN, with an offense struggling for morale with Carson Palmer's refusal to play, things do not look good. Both teams should have better success with their defenses than offenses in this game, with CAR having the edge to win the game with CAR QB Newton having more offensive weapons at his disposal. CIN fans are in for another treat at home – if they're planning on a killer tailgating menu with lots of alcohol, that is. Just don't shoot anyone in the parking lot when it's over, it's just a preseason game, after all.

CIN is playing in their home opener, but you can't squeeze a turd and expect talent to come out of it.

Final Score Prediction: CAR 20 – CIN 10, as CAR makes it 3 weeks in a row involved in a game with a 20 – 10 final score, lol.


Recommended Plays: CAR +2.5 and Under 33.5.

 

[Grindstone30]

Hey TC you will be missed it was really nice reading your insights to bad you couldn't stay. GL with your future endeavors

 

[phantom888]

This game is a bit of a Random Bowl, but I have for 1* each, CAR +2.5 & CAR/CIN Under 34

QUOTE]

0-2

tout jinx is a bitch! grrrr!

 

[NBAcapper08]

good thing this is a "one time only" post

 

[Guru23]

good thing this is a "one time only" post

lol, no more, no more!

 

[thecruncher]

"This game is a bit of a Random Bowl..." Sorry if I couldn't exude any less confidence on a Bonus Play/handicapping challenge. 2-1 on non-Random Bowl plays last night.

 

[aiverson]

"This game is a bit of a Random Bowl..." Sorry if I couldn't exude any less confidence on a Bonus Play/handicapping challenge. 2-1 on non-Random Bowl plays last night.

What a joke this guy is.

First of all, for the "newbs" around here who may not know, he used to be on this board as a regular, posting roughly 10-20 plays per week w/ all sorts of various sizes. He barely won, from what I recall, and then decided to go tout. For 1-2 yrs, max.

Obviously that went badly, and people dropped off.

Now he comes back begging for more people.

He does ok and has some phony come on w/ a new username to slob on him, totally made up for sure.

Now he releases a "Bonus Play" and goes 0-2 and now has excuses.

Guys - cruncher is NOT A WINNING HANDICAPPER AND YOU WILL NOT MAKE LONG TERM MONEY FOLLOWING HIS PLAYS.

The forum is better off without him - sorry guy, it's true.

 

[HighFlyinKilla]

"This game is a bit of a Random Bowl..." Sorry if I couldn't exude any less confidence on a Bonus Play/handicapping challenge. 2-1 on non-Random Bowl plays last night.

Are you serious? :hahahahah

 

[kid44]

Proof is always in the numbers. Words make no difference when capping games.

Give me records, proof, documented history, and not words. Never follow anyone who is afraid to give you a documented record of success. Not implying cruncher does this but buyer beware, especially this time of year when touts are looking for some easy pickins. Transparency is key and words tend to hide this fact.

 

[NBAcapper08]

Why give a play if u have no confidence in it? That is no help to anyone stay in tout land u clown

 

[thecruncher]

What a joke this guy is.

First of all, for the "newbs" around here who may not know, he used to be on this board as a regular, posting roughly 10-20 plays per week w/ all sorts of various sizes. He barely won, from what I recall, and then decided to go tout. For 1-2 yrs, max.

Obviously that went badly, and people dropped off.

Now he comes back begging for more people.

He does ok and has some phony come on w/ a new username to slob on him, totally made up for sure.

Now he releases a "Bonus Play" and goes 0-2 and now has excuses.

Guys - cruncher is NOT A WINNING HANDICAPPER AND YOU WILL NOT MAKE LONG TERM MONEY FOLLOWING HIS PLAYS.

The forum is better off without him - sorry guy, it's true.

Wow, what a fountain of misinformation you are, AI. If I'm not mistaken I've seen your professional jealousy veer into character assassination before.

For anyone stupid enough to believe AI's "recollections" on my contributions to the forum, here are some links for you:


2008 season
Total: +129.1 Units

For these 2008 season results, posted plays were split between here at therx.com (search "thecruncher" -- I was using Excel graphics in the forum, which are now showing up as gobbledygook characters, for some reason) and here: http://thesportscruncher.blogspot.com/
Average Bet Size = .92 Units, +140.1 Average Sized Bets
ROI = 11.52%

Here are the links to my past season's year end results. One thing to keep in mind is that in the past my average sized bet was nearer to a half unit, unlike now, where it's closer to (but less than) a full unit.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=547034&page=5 2007 -- +49.5 Average Sized Bets

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=450890 2006 -- +29 Average Sized Bets

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=345443 2005 -- +14.5 Units, probably in the +25 Average Sized Bets range.

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=258707 2004 -- +30.5 Units, probably in the +55 Average Sized Bets range (58% on all Units bet)

So, after 4 straight years of publicly posted winners here at therx, and a monster 6 weeks of profit to start 2008, I began my own service, netting another 60-70 average size bets for my clients the rest of the year. In 2009 I was down less than 10 bets for the season, my first losing year. So after 5 years accruing a record of up 300 bets, I was down 10 in one year -- oh my, the horror! I've never tried to hide the fact that I had a slightly down year in 2009. As this business is not really a great moneymaker for honest cappers until you reach the highest echelons of name recognition, I did take last year off to try a different programming project, which while fun, wasn't that profitable. Looking at my "career" as a handicapper, does it really look like I got in this to make a quick buck? Or does it look like after demonstrating consistent profitability over an extended period of time that I decided to start getting a little back for my years of hard efforts? As I don't really like dealing with the business end of the business I'm working with Mike Davis on his new site.

For the easily viewable record, I was never a Units chaser, my plays rarely strayed from near 1 unit. I was actually complimented publicly by the esteemed BuffettGambler for my sticking to 1 unit and less bet tracking.

I"m not sure what this new user name is you think I'm using? I've been "thecruncher" here since the very beginning.

Obviously I don't like posting a Bonus Play that is a loser, that was a business decision I was not happy with making, as I never intended to cap that game as I saw it as random, as I said up front. One lost game after an 18-5 week and you can see who has an agenda by coming in here and attacking me -- namely a big pos like AI.

You only have to look at all the support I've had from many long term forumites to know that AI's opinion is his alone, and everything he says about my record is a lie.

 

[thecruncher]

Oh yeah, I'm remembering now how AI came in ghosting one year to totally slam all of the cappers who were doing well in the forums, just to try and get business for himself. Ask Kingdom Come about that if he ever happens to pop back into the forum here.

 

[Jetplane]

btw.. where'd KC go?

 

[thecruncher]

btw.. where'd KC go?

I haven't chatted with him for over a year -- he was just real busy with his advertising company and studio/music recording work/projects. How you been, Jet, hangin' in there?

 

[phantom888]

btw.. where'd KC go?

kc has created a thread in the nfl section.......

 

[phantom888]

Oh yeah, I'm remembering now how AI came in ghosting one year to totally slam all of the cappers who were doing well in the forums, just to try and get business for himself. Ask Kingdom Come about that if he ever happens to pop back into the forum here.

jus do what u do Mr. C.....best of luck this year!

 

[aiverson]

Oh yeah, I'm remembering now how AI came in ghosting one year to totally slam all of the cappers who were doing well in the forums, just to try and get business for himself. Ask Kingdom Come about that if he ever happens to pop back into the forum here.

??? Never this. If you are talking about Wildcats, that's a different matter. I've never ghosted and never will - no need. If you were doing so well, you would not need to come back, pretend like you are "now back and giving plays" and then start selling again trying to take people w/ you. Simple as that. I'm onto bigger things, just wanting to point out you are not nearly the capper you may think you are, and obviously you trying stuff like this shows it. Who knows you in Vegas? What large bettors are betting your plays if you are so good and such a long term winner? Keep grinding buddy - just don't think we don't see your games.