GREEN BAY -8 -110 over Buffalo
1:00 PM EST. In just one Sunday, the Bills went from a laughing stock to a team that apparently should not be taken lightly after they crushed a Super Bowl contender on its home field in that 27-6 route of the Vikings. A 17½-point pooch winning outright is a story in itself, but with fantasy football and office pools making up a huge part of the viewing audience, that game had a ton of eyes on it. The Bills knocked out nearly 65% of survivor pool players and many of the Vikings offensive stars and their defense were popular daily fantasy picks. One game does not make a season, so we are left wondering who these Bills really are. Is Buffalo the sad-sack group that was badly outscored in its first two games 78-23 or has it been given new life under rookie quarterback Josh Allen? The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. After all, the Bills caught the Vikes at the perfect time right after a hard-fought game with rival Green Bay and on a short week before Minnesota was set to play in Los Angeles against the Rams in prime time on Thursday Night Football. We saw the Vikes hang with one of the best teams in the league last night, which will only give the Bills win last week more credibility than it probably should because not only did Minny not show up last week, it quit early in that game.
Green Bay is licking its wounds after a 14-point loss in Washington. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is beat up and did not practice before playing against the Redskins and head coach Mike McCarthy cited that as one of the reasons his team struggled, "Anytime your quarterback doesn’t practice, it’s different." Rodgers was back on the field with his teammates on Thursday, but he and the Packers standing in the market is low because of the uncertainty surrounding his knee injury. Nobody wants to be holding a ticket on the Packers, only to see DeShone Kizer trot out on the field if Rodgers is forced to miss snaps. That thinking, while understandable is flawed. Injuries are a part of the game and oddsmakers know what the risks are with Rodgers and they still posted the Packers spotting double-digits. That number has now been driven down, but we have to wonder what this price would have been had these two teams not had such contrasting weeks. If Buffalo got waxed as many expected and had Green Bay won and covered as a road favorite, this could easily have been another near three-touchdown spread. As it stands, we get the Pack at a discount price against what should be an overwhelmed guest that might still be celebrating one of the biggest upsets in decades.
Pick: GREEN BAY -8 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)
ARIZONA +3½ -108 over Seattle
4:05 PM. We're not here to make a case for the Cardinals based on what they've done on the field this year, as they are 0-3 to start the season. If you've been following along, you know that we picked Arizona to go under its season win total of just 5½-games and we feel really good about that bet, but the time has come to look at these Cards, as they head towards rock bottom. Arizona is such a hard bet this week, but that's what has them on our radar and the switch to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen certainly can't hurt. Rosen was said to be by many pundits the most NFL ready pivot in this years draft, but he nearly fell out of the top-10, as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and even Josh Allen were all drafted before the former UCLA quarterback. The Cards saved Rosen from further free fall by trading with the Raiders to move up to snag the #10 pick. We've already seen the three QBs picked in front of him have some level of success at the pro level. Asking Rosen to do the same is not unfair. He's confident and knows the playbook, "I will not run a play on the football field unless I know why we are running it and what we are trying to accomplish." There are quarterbacks that have been around for years that don't have that kind of logical approach. The Cards have the league’s worst offense through three games, thus, it can only get better from here and we admire greatly those mature thoughts by Rosen.
Seattle had a high profile win over the Cowboys, as that game was featured on America's Game of the Week on FOX. That win was the Seahawks first of the year, but they were actually out-gained by Dallas if you can believe that. The deciding factor was a 3-0 turnover advantage in favor of the home side. In the NFL if you have a +3 in that category, you are supposed to win. In their other two games, the Seahawks lost on the road at Denver, where they were badly outplayed by the Broncos. Three Case Keenum interceptions made that 27-24 loss look much closer than it was, as the Broncos put up 164 more yards than Seattle did. In Week 2, the Seahawks lost a stinker on Monday Night Football. In both of those roadies, the were in the underdog role, but that changes this week in the desert.
Seattle has a great QB but they are not even close to being a great team. Russell Wilson has no protection and this declining squad therefore has no business being road chalk. The Cardinals offense is plenty bad but the defense isn't terrible but just plays in bad situations. That could all change here, as the team gets a boost from an enthusiastic and talented young QB that has been put in a good position to succeed and even if Rosen is average, the Cards can still win this one. If he’s better than average, a distinct possibility, they will win this one.
Pick: ARIZONA +3½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Houston -105 over INDIANAPOLIS
1:00 PM EST. The Texans are 0-3, but it’s not nearly as bad as that record would indicate. Houston has played in three one-score games and had a chance to win all three. They could just as easily be 3-0, 2-1 or 1-0 depending on which way the cookie crumbled. Week 1 was their worst performance of the season and the Texans still had a shot to beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Week 2 was a tough, low scoring division game against the Titans and the Texans suffered the same fate as the AFC South favorite Jaguars did last week, as both were suffocated by Tennessee’s defense. The Texans had no business losing that game after out-gaining the Titans by 154 yards and the same can be said of last week's stumble at home against the Giants. Houston again dictated the play, but lost the turnover battle. You cannot cough up the ball in the NFL and expect to win.
With that loss to the Giants, the Texans now top a dubious list that likely was not in their plans before the season started. After the Browns win in Week 3, Houston now holds the longest losing streak in the NFL and that fact has given the pundits something to talk about this week, but do not be influenced by those bozos. Instead, take what they say and try and use it to your advantage when trying to find an edge or an angle in any these games. Wagering in the NFL is a lot like playing the stock market. When you hear a guy like "Mad Money's" Jim Cramer screaming about the next big investment on TV, you've probably missed the boat. The same goes for the NFL.
If the Colts peak your interest in this game ask yourself a couple of questions. Did you like them the last two weeks against the Eagles or Redskins when they were taking back a nice price? If so, we understand, as we have backed Andrew Luck and company in every game so far this season. However, we have made a profit and now it's time to switch gears because the market has suddenly taken notice of how good Andrew Luck is. If you didn’t like the Colts in the first three weeks, why do you like them now? Is it because the Texans are winless or that the Colts have covered two straight on the road including an outright win at Washington. Regardless, the value on Indianapolis has dried up here in Week 4. It also cannot be ignored that the Colts have a huge game in New England on decl this Thursday night. This is the perfect recipe for a route in favor of the tough luck Texans, who are absolutely loaded with offensive weapons and that should have Luck running for his life this week. DeShaun Watson is great and is about to go off again--you can just sense it.
Pick: Houston -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)
OAKLAND -2½ -104 over Cleveland
4:05 PM EST. The Browns finally got off the schneid after over 600 days without a regular season win after they disposed of the Jets 21-14 on the second half heroics of rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Despite a 0-1-1 start to their season, the Browns were taking it slow with the number one overall pick from April's draft, but a concussion, to Tyrod "Car Parts" Taylor left head coach Hue Jackson no choice but to throw his young pivot into the fire. What happened next has caused much discussion in the media about whether or not Jackson should be fired for going with Taylor over Mayfield. Sports Illustrated called the embattled coach a "punching bag" after he said he'd have to "review the tape" before deciding whether or not Mayfield would start here in Week 4. Browns’ Twitter feed melted down as if the Cuyahoga River was on fire (again) and that Jackson had lit the match. The Brownies have no choice to start Mayfield as "Bakermania" takes over northeast Ohio, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's the best choice. Sure, last week's second-half stat line looks really good, as he went 17-of-23 for 201 yards, but Baker did not pass the eye test. Having a little bit of film will also now help opposing defenses to gameplan for what the rookie brings to the table. That was not a luxury that was afforded to the Jets. We're not here to rain on the parade, as the Brownies were a nice story in Week 3, but the weight of a franchise is now on the back of a 23-year-old kid, who's had 10 days to bask in the sun after that victory. We've seen what those expectations have done to a long line of former top picks from these new Browns. From Tim Couch in 1999 to Brady Quinn in 2007 to Brandon Weeden in 2012 to Johnny Manziel in 2014, every quarterback Cleveland has picked in the first round has been rushed into the lineup and then ran on a rail right out of town. Don't get us wrong, Hue Jackson is an idiot, but not starting a rookie QB for a franchise that was so desperate to win just one game that a major brewing company based an entire advertising campaign around it, is not one of the reasons why. The perception of the Browns in the market is that they have been tough luck losers, but they were totally dominated in their Week 1 tie with Pittsburgh and shot themselves in the foot again and again against New Orleans. Good teams don't find a way to lose. That the Browns are 3-0 against the spread will also increase their market profile, but now is the time to sell.
From the outside, the Raiders appear to be a complete mess, but at 0-3, it's not like that is some hot take. New/old head coach Jon Gruden has been an easy target and he doesn't do himself or the organization any favors when he opens his mouth. If the Raiders stock wasn't low enough, there were reports this week that Gruden has already divided the football operations side of the Raiders after surrounding himself with his own scouts and talent evaluators. It's been written that Gruden even has his own draft board that is separate from the one that the Raiders have in the front office. Here's the thing, as long as "Chuckie" is wearing a black and silver visor, what he says goes. Raiders owner Mark Davis sold his soul to get Gruden and a new stadium deal in Las Vegas and there are 100-million reasons why the latter will be on the sidelines in the desert when that facility opens in 2020. A winless start is not what anybody in Oakland had in mind, but they did compete (at least for a half) with the Rams, who are a real juggernaut and a legit threat to win the Super Bowl. In Week 2, Oakland played well again on the road in Denver, which is one of the toughest places to play in the league and they had a lead from the gate and would have taken it all the way to the wire if not for the Broncos hitting a game-winning field goal with just 10 seconds left. In a tough travel spot, heading from the West Coast to East for an early start, the Raiders were not flat after Jordy Nelson turned backed the clock and caught a 61-yard pass from Derek Carr and then cashed the opening drive in with a 12-yard touchdown reception. The Raiders had a 10-point lead in the third quarter before falling victim to the Dolphins trickery in the fourth quarter. Seriously, the Raiders were on the verge of blowing out Miami but it was not meant to be. All in all, the Raiders probably deserve a better record than they have and now they’ll face a squad that is getting too many pats on the back and probably lost that huge chip they had on their collective shoulder in the process.
Pick: OAKLAND -2½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
ATLANTA -3½ -101 over Cincinnati
1:00 PM EST. The 2-1 Bengals come off their first loss of the season and head onto a fast track in Atlanta to face the 1-2 Falcons that just dropped an overtime shootout with the Saints. If this matchup seems unusual, it is, because the last time these teams met was eight years ago so there are no scores to settle but at the end of the day, a 2-1 team is taking points against a 1-2 team and that has this market leaning the wrong way.
Cinci’s two wins came against the Colts in Week 1 in a game they looked dead in the water in. Only a fourth quarter rally and a pick on Indy’s last drive allowed the Bengals to pull out a miracle win. Indy had more first downs, more total yards, held a significant time of possession edge and a total yards edge. The Bengals scored a very late TD to make the score look more flattering to the Bengals than it already was. Make no mistake than Cinci was the second best team that day and also note that it was Andrew Luck’s first real time action in over 600 days. In prime time in Week 2 on a Thursday night at home, the Bengals stormed out to a 21-0 lead over Baltimore but were absolutely dominated in the second half and barely held on. For the second straight week, the Bengals needed a turnover by the opposition to secure the victory but like Indy in Week 1, Baltimore had more first downs, more yards, more sacks and more everything else. Last week in Carolina, the Bengals lost by 10 and while the yardage was almost equal, they lost the time of possession for the third straight time, this time by over seven minutes. Now the Bengals will play their second straight on the road while Atlanta will play its third straight at home. The Bengals defense has been getting progressively worse each week because they are spending too much time out there and will now face it’s toughest test to date.
Even good defenses play poorly when they tire, and being worn out renders bad ones hopeless. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count." The Bengals' opponents are running up too many plays on this beleaguered defense and you know it’s only a matter of time before Andy Dalton has one of his patented “what the f**k” games where he looks completely lost. With a 2-1 record and a game against a NFC opponent that they rarely see, Cincinnati may be in much bigger trouble than the market realizes.
By contrast, Atlanta has played Philadelphia, New Orleans and Carolina and could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2. The Dirty Birds have had a tougher schedule, the offense is humming and they beat the same team that the Bengals lost to. The price here is a bargain on the Falcons and we’re on it.
Pick: ATLANTA -3½ -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
New Orleans -4 +114 over N.Y. GIANTS
4:25 PM EST. Some bettors (fools) like to buy points and that plays into a house advantage so we're once again going to "sell points" and take back a little juice on the Saints because we see this as a complete mismatch. Use the "Alternate spread" option or drop down menu to "sell" points.
The market was heavily against the Giants last week in Houston and they were left ripping up their tickets after Eli Manning and company walked out of Reliant Stadium outright winners as 6½-point pooches. It was a great road win and one we were quite delighted to cash in on, but that game along with the rest of the contests that New York's NFC side has played this year have been total stinkers. Despite the win on Sunday, the G-Men were outgained by the Texans while DeShaun Watson outdueled Eli by over 103 passing yards. In Week 1, the Jaguars held Manning to 224 yards and no touchdowns and also picking him off one time. In Week 2 at Dallas, the Giants were out-gained by the Cowboys while Manning was sacked six times in that lifeless Sunday night performance.
The Saints have been living on the edge after playing three straight one-score games, but they are 2-1 in that scenario and that they've been able to hang on when it counts is a carryover from last season where their defense ranked number one in late-and-close situations according to Football Outsiders. Offensively, the ageless Drew Brees is coming off another huge game where he racked up five total touchdowns including a pair of rushing scores that have been on the highlight reels all week. Brees is backing up under the hood as well as the number one quarterback in DYAR, which measures a quarterback's total value. The Saints are the highest scoring team in the NFC, but holes in their defense has them under the radar as a real threat in that conference. New Orleans gave up 48 points to the Buccaneers in a Week 1 loss, but that defeat doesn't look as bad as it did at the time after Tampa has kept up that torrid pace. The Saints Week 2 win against Cleveland isn't carrying much weight either, as the story of that game was more about the Browns repeated kicking errors than it was the Saints battling to win it late, just like they did last Week in Atlanta. That Week 3 win was their best performance of the season so far, as they outgained the Falcons, had more first downs (32-to-24) and dominated the time of possession by eight minutes. It it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it’s a duck. Eli Manning looks lost, acts lost and therefore is lost, thus rendering this one a seriously bad matchup, as Eli cannot keep up with Brees on the latters worse day ever.
Pick: New Orleans -4 +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
DALLAS -2½ -110 over Detroit
1:00 PM EST. Did you see Detroit steamroll the Patriots last Sunday night? Of course you did. Did you happen to see the Cowboys stink it up again in the featured late afternoon game on Sunday against Seattle? Of course you did? Have you read, heard or listened to how strong the Lions pass defense has been and how the Lions rank 1st overall in passing yards against? Of course you have. We cannot overstate enough how important is to ignore what you saw one week ago. What the brain sees most recently poisons your blood into thinking that the Lions are the play here when in fact, they are not. Before we continue, note that the Patriots, the only team the Lions beat this year, have been as bad as any Browns team over the past decade. No team in football, not the Cardinals nor the Bills have looked worse than New England has over the first three weeks this year.
Detroit’s other two games? They lost by 31 points to the Jets and they lost by three to the 49ers in a game they were losing 30-13 in the fourth quarter. Two garbage time TD’s made that one look much closer than it was. The Lions were nothing but red flags and wringing hands after two weeks of the HC Matt Patricia era but he faced off with his old team and made all things right in this market for Detroit. Detroit’s stock shot up last week in that prime time victory over the Patriots and that’s our immediate prompt to bring the hammer down against them.
You are going to hear the same damn thing about the Cowboys over and over and over this week until it’s embedded in your brain. You’re going to hear about an offense that can’t get out of its own way. You’re going to hear how Dak Prescott was placed in a bad situation after Dez Bryant and Jason Witten were not replaced with credible players. Prescott has not thrown a TD pass in seven of his last 11 starts and Dallas hasn’t been able to move five yards. Dallas scored eight points in Week 1 at Carolina and 13 points last week in Seattle but that game was 24-7 with under four minutes to go when Dallas scored a garbage TD.
You have to be really careful to not get caught up in the talk that get others to invest in the wrong side. Let the talking heads get caught up in all the X’s and O’s and try and predict the outcome or how the game will play out. They’ve been doing that for 100 years and they keep getting it wrong. Meanwhile, we’ll point out that it’s a letdown spot for Patricia and the Lions, as he wanted that win last week so badly and he also has the Packers on deck next week. Additionally, do you not think that Prescott and the “Boys aren’t sick of hearing how inefficient the offense is? Of course they are and this is a response game in a perfect situational spot. We’ll continue to preach to ignore the stuff that influences the market most and pay more attention to value. In that regard, the “Boys in a foul mood are spotting less points than they should be based solely on the Lions resonating win over a New England team that is a complete and utter mess this year.
Pick: DALLAS -2½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
1:00 PM EST. In just one Sunday, the Bills went from a laughing stock to a team that apparently should not be taken lightly after they crushed a Super Bowl contender on its home field in that 27-6 route of the Vikings. A 17½-point pooch winning outright is a story in itself, but with fantasy football and office pools making up a huge part of the viewing audience, that game had a ton of eyes on it. The Bills knocked out nearly 65% of survivor pool players and many of the Vikings offensive stars and their defense were popular daily fantasy picks. One game does not make a season, so we are left wondering who these Bills really are. Is Buffalo the sad-sack group that was badly outscored in its first two games 78-23 or has it been given new life under rookie quarterback Josh Allen? The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. After all, the Bills caught the Vikes at the perfect time right after a hard-fought game with rival Green Bay and on a short week before Minnesota was set to play in Los Angeles against the Rams in prime time on Thursday Night Football. We saw the Vikes hang with one of the best teams in the league last night, which will only give the Bills win last week more credibility than it probably should because not only did Minny not show up last week, it quit early in that game.
Green Bay is licking its wounds after a 14-point loss in Washington. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is beat up and did not practice before playing against the Redskins and head coach Mike McCarthy cited that as one of the reasons his team struggled, "Anytime your quarterback doesn’t practice, it’s different." Rodgers was back on the field with his teammates on Thursday, but he and the Packers standing in the market is low because of the uncertainty surrounding his knee injury. Nobody wants to be holding a ticket on the Packers, only to see DeShone Kizer trot out on the field if Rodgers is forced to miss snaps. That thinking, while understandable is flawed. Injuries are a part of the game and oddsmakers know what the risks are with Rodgers and they still posted the Packers spotting double-digits. That number has now been driven down, but we have to wonder what this price would have been had these two teams not had such contrasting weeks. If Buffalo got waxed as many expected and had Green Bay won and covered as a road favorite, this could easily have been another near three-touchdown spread. As it stands, we get the Pack at a discount price against what should be an overwhelmed guest that might still be celebrating one of the biggest upsets in decades.
Pick: GREEN BAY -8 -110 (Risking 2.20 units - To Win: 2.00)
ARIZONA +3½ -108 over Seattle
4:05 PM. We're not here to make a case for the Cardinals based on what they've done on the field this year, as they are 0-3 to start the season. If you've been following along, you know that we picked Arizona to go under its season win total of just 5½-games and we feel really good about that bet, but the time has come to look at these Cards, as they head towards rock bottom. Arizona is such a hard bet this week, but that's what has them on our radar and the switch to rookie quarterback Josh Rosen certainly can't hurt. Rosen was said to be by many pundits the most NFL ready pivot in this years draft, but he nearly fell out of the top-10, as Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold and even Josh Allen were all drafted before the former UCLA quarterback. The Cards saved Rosen from further free fall by trading with the Raiders to move up to snag the #10 pick. We've already seen the three QBs picked in front of him have some level of success at the pro level. Asking Rosen to do the same is not unfair. He's confident and knows the playbook, "I will not run a play on the football field unless I know why we are running it and what we are trying to accomplish." There are quarterbacks that have been around for years that don't have that kind of logical approach. The Cards have the league’s worst offense through three games, thus, it can only get better from here and we admire greatly those mature thoughts by Rosen.
Seattle had a high profile win over the Cowboys, as that game was featured on America's Game of the Week on FOX. That win was the Seahawks first of the year, but they were actually out-gained by Dallas if you can believe that. The deciding factor was a 3-0 turnover advantage in favor of the home side. In the NFL if you have a +3 in that category, you are supposed to win. In their other two games, the Seahawks lost on the road at Denver, where they were badly outplayed by the Broncos. Three Case Keenum interceptions made that 27-24 loss look much closer than it was, as the Broncos put up 164 more yards than Seattle did. In Week 2, the Seahawks lost a stinker on Monday Night Football. In both of those roadies, the were in the underdog role, but that changes this week in the desert.
Seattle has a great QB but they are not even close to being a great team. Russell Wilson has no protection and this declining squad therefore has no business being road chalk. The Cardinals offense is plenty bad but the defense isn't terrible but just plays in bad situations. That could all change here, as the team gets a boost from an enthusiastic and talented young QB that has been put in a good position to succeed and even if Rosen is average, the Cards can still win this one. If he’s better than average, a distinct possibility, they will win this one.
Pick: ARIZONA +3½ -108 (Risking 2.16 units - To Win: 2.00)
Houston -105 over INDIANAPOLIS
1:00 PM EST. The Texans are 0-3, but it’s not nearly as bad as that record would indicate. Houston has played in three one-score games and had a chance to win all three. They could just as easily be 3-0, 2-1 or 1-0 depending on which way the cookie crumbled. Week 1 was their worst performance of the season and the Texans still had a shot to beat the Patriots in Foxborough. Week 2 was a tough, low scoring division game against the Titans and the Texans suffered the same fate as the AFC South favorite Jaguars did last week, as both were suffocated by Tennessee’s defense. The Texans had no business losing that game after out-gaining the Titans by 154 yards and the same can be said of last week's stumble at home against the Giants. Houston again dictated the play, but lost the turnover battle. You cannot cough up the ball in the NFL and expect to win.
With that loss to the Giants, the Texans now top a dubious list that likely was not in their plans before the season started. After the Browns win in Week 3, Houston now holds the longest losing streak in the NFL and that fact has given the pundits something to talk about this week, but do not be influenced by those bozos. Instead, take what they say and try and use it to your advantage when trying to find an edge or an angle in any these games. Wagering in the NFL is a lot like playing the stock market. When you hear a guy like "Mad Money's" Jim Cramer screaming about the next big investment on TV, you've probably missed the boat. The same goes for the NFL.
If the Colts peak your interest in this game ask yourself a couple of questions. Did you like them the last two weeks against the Eagles or Redskins when they were taking back a nice price? If so, we understand, as we have backed Andrew Luck and company in every game so far this season. However, we have made a profit and now it's time to switch gears because the market has suddenly taken notice of how good Andrew Luck is. If you didn’t like the Colts in the first three weeks, why do you like them now? Is it because the Texans are winless or that the Colts have covered two straight on the road including an outright win at Washington. Regardless, the value on Indianapolis has dried up here in Week 4. It also cannot be ignored that the Colts have a huge game in New England on decl this Thursday night. This is the perfect recipe for a route in favor of the tough luck Texans, who are absolutely loaded with offensive weapons and that should have Luck running for his life this week. DeShaun Watson is great and is about to go off again--you can just sense it.
Pick: Houston -105 (Risking 2.10 units - To Win: 2.00)
OAKLAND -2½ -104 over Cleveland
4:05 PM EST. The Browns finally got off the schneid after over 600 days without a regular season win after they disposed of the Jets 21-14 on the second half heroics of rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. Despite a 0-1-1 start to their season, the Browns were taking it slow with the number one overall pick from April's draft, but a concussion, to Tyrod "Car Parts" Taylor left head coach Hue Jackson no choice but to throw his young pivot into the fire. What happened next has caused much discussion in the media about whether or not Jackson should be fired for going with Taylor over Mayfield. Sports Illustrated called the embattled coach a "punching bag" after he said he'd have to "review the tape" before deciding whether or not Mayfield would start here in Week 4. Browns’ Twitter feed melted down as if the Cuyahoga River was on fire (again) and that Jackson had lit the match. The Brownies have no choice to start Mayfield as "Bakermania" takes over northeast Ohio, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's the best choice. Sure, last week's second-half stat line looks really good, as he went 17-of-23 for 201 yards, but Baker did not pass the eye test. Having a little bit of film will also now help opposing defenses to gameplan for what the rookie brings to the table. That was not a luxury that was afforded to the Jets. We're not here to rain on the parade, as the Brownies were a nice story in Week 3, but the weight of a franchise is now on the back of a 23-year-old kid, who's had 10 days to bask in the sun after that victory. We've seen what those expectations have done to a long line of former top picks from these new Browns. From Tim Couch in 1999 to Brady Quinn in 2007 to Brandon Weeden in 2012 to Johnny Manziel in 2014, every quarterback Cleveland has picked in the first round has been rushed into the lineup and then ran on a rail right out of town. Don't get us wrong, Hue Jackson is an idiot, but not starting a rookie QB for a franchise that was so desperate to win just one game that a major brewing company based an entire advertising campaign around it, is not one of the reasons why. The perception of the Browns in the market is that they have been tough luck losers, but they were totally dominated in their Week 1 tie with Pittsburgh and shot themselves in the foot again and again against New Orleans. Good teams don't find a way to lose. That the Browns are 3-0 against the spread will also increase their market profile, but now is the time to sell.
From the outside, the Raiders appear to be a complete mess, but at 0-3, it's not like that is some hot take. New/old head coach Jon Gruden has been an easy target and he doesn't do himself or the organization any favors when he opens his mouth. If the Raiders stock wasn't low enough, there were reports this week that Gruden has already divided the football operations side of the Raiders after surrounding himself with his own scouts and talent evaluators. It's been written that Gruden even has his own draft board that is separate from the one that the Raiders have in the front office. Here's the thing, as long as "Chuckie" is wearing a black and silver visor, what he says goes. Raiders owner Mark Davis sold his soul to get Gruden and a new stadium deal in Las Vegas and there are 100-million reasons why the latter will be on the sidelines in the desert when that facility opens in 2020. A winless start is not what anybody in Oakland had in mind, but they did compete (at least for a half) with the Rams, who are a real juggernaut and a legit threat to win the Super Bowl. In Week 2, Oakland played well again on the road in Denver, which is one of the toughest places to play in the league and they had a lead from the gate and would have taken it all the way to the wire if not for the Broncos hitting a game-winning field goal with just 10 seconds left. In a tough travel spot, heading from the West Coast to East for an early start, the Raiders were not flat after Jordy Nelson turned backed the clock and caught a 61-yard pass from Derek Carr and then cashed the opening drive in with a 12-yard touchdown reception. The Raiders had a 10-point lead in the third quarter before falling victim to the Dolphins trickery in the fourth quarter. Seriously, the Raiders were on the verge of blowing out Miami but it was not meant to be. All in all, the Raiders probably deserve a better record than they have and now they’ll face a squad that is getting too many pats on the back and probably lost that huge chip they had on their collective shoulder in the process.
Pick: OAKLAND -2½ -104 (Risking 2.08 units - To Win: 2.00)
ATLANTA -3½ -101 over Cincinnati
1:00 PM EST. The 2-1 Bengals come off their first loss of the season and head onto a fast track in Atlanta to face the 1-2 Falcons that just dropped an overtime shootout with the Saints. If this matchup seems unusual, it is, because the last time these teams met was eight years ago so there are no scores to settle but at the end of the day, a 2-1 team is taking points against a 1-2 team and that has this market leaning the wrong way.
Cinci’s two wins came against the Colts in Week 1 in a game they looked dead in the water in. Only a fourth quarter rally and a pick on Indy’s last drive allowed the Bengals to pull out a miracle win. Indy had more first downs, more total yards, held a significant time of possession edge and a total yards edge. The Bengals scored a very late TD to make the score look more flattering to the Bengals than it already was. Make no mistake than Cinci was the second best team that day and also note that it was Andrew Luck’s first real time action in over 600 days. In prime time in Week 2 on a Thursday night at home, the Bengals stormed out to a 21-0 lead over Baltimore but were absolutely dominated in the second half and barely held on. For the second straight week, the Bengals needed a turnover by the opposition to secure the victory but like Indy in Week 1, Baltimore had more first downs, more yards, more sacks and more everything else. Last week in Carolina, the Bengals lost by 10 and while the yardage was almost equal, they lost the time of possession for the third straight time, this time by over seven minutes. Now the Bengals will play their second straight on the road while Atlanta will play its third straight at home. The Bengals defense has been getting progressively worse each week because they are spending too much time out there and will now face it’s toughest test to date.
Even good defenses play poorly when they tire, and being worn out renders bad ones hopeless. Always be aware of whether the schedule helps or hinders freshness, the mental and physical toll of each game and the running "pitch count." The Bengals' opponents are running up too many plays on this beleaguered defense and you know it’s only a matter of time before Andy Dalton has one of his patented “what the f**k” games where he looks completely lost. With a 2-1 record and a game against a NFC opponent that they rarely see, Cincinnati may be in much bigger trouble than the market realizes.
By contrast, Atlanta has played Philadelphia, New Orleans and Carolina and could easily be 3-0 instead of 1-2. The Dirty Birds have had a tougher schedule, the offense is humming and they beat the same team that the Bengals lost to. The price here is a bargain on the Falcons and we’re on it.
Pick: ATLANTA -3½ -101 (Risking 2.02 units - To Win: 2.00)
New Orleans -4 +114 over N.Y. GIANTS
4:25 PM EST. Some bettors (fools) like to buy points and that plays into a house advantage so we're once again going to "sell points" and take back a little juice on the Saints because we see this as a complete mismatch. Use the "Alternate spread" option or drop down menu to "sell" points.
The market was heavily against the Giants last week in Houston and they were left ripping up their tickets after Eli Manning and company walked out of Reliant Stadium outright winners as 6½-point pooches. It was a great road win and one we were quite delighted to cash in on, but that game along with the rest of the contests that New York's NFC side has played this year have been total stinkers. Despite the win on Sunday, the G-Men were outgained by the Texans while DeShaun Watson outdueled Eli by over 103 passing yards. In Week 1, the Jaguars held Manning to 224 yards and no touchdowns and also picking him off one time. In Week 2 at Dallas, the Giants were out-gained by the Cowboys while Manning was sacked six times in that lifeless Sunday night performance.
The Saints have been living on the edge after playing three straight one-score games, but they are 2-1 in that scenario and that they've been able to hang on when it counts is a carryover from last season where their defense ranked number one in late-and-close situations according to Football Outsiders. Offensively, the ageless Drew Brees is coming off another huge game where he racked up five total touchdowns including a pair of rushing scores that have been on the highlight reels all week. Brees is backing up under the hood as well as the number one quarterback in DYAR, which measures a quarterback's total value. The Saints are the highest scoring team in the NFC, but holes in their defense has them under the radar as a real threat in that conference. New Orleans gave up 48 points to the Buccaneers in a Week 1 loss, but that defeat doesn't look as bad as it did at the time after Tampa has kept up that torrid pace. The Saints Week 2 win against Cleveland isn't carrying much weight either, as the story of that game was more about the Browns repeated kicking errors than it was the Saints battling to win it late, just like they did last Week in Atlanta. That Week 3 win was their best performance of the season so far, as they outgained the Falcons, had more first downs (32-to-24) and dominated the time of possession by eight minutes. It it walks like a duck and talks like a duck, it’s a duck. Eli Manning looks lost, acts lost and therefore is lost, thus rendering this one a seriously bad matchup, as Eli cannot keep up with Brees on the latters worse day ever.
Pick: New Orleans -4 +114 (Risking 2 units - To Win: 2.28)
DALLAS -2½ -110 over Detroit
1:00 PM EST. Did you see Detroit steamroll the Patriots last Sunday night? Of course you did. Did you happen to see the Cowboys stink it up again in the featured late afternoon game on Sunday against Seattle? Of course you did? Have you read, heard or listened to how strong the Lions pass defense has been and how the Lions rank 1st overall in passing yards against? Of course you have. We cannot overstate enough how important is to ignore what you saw one week ago. What the brain sees most recently poisons your blood into thinking that the Lions are the play here when in fact, they are not. Before we continue, note that the Patriots, the only team the Lions beat this year, have been as bad as any Browns team over the past decade. No team in football, not the Cardinals nor the Bills have looked worse than New England has over the first three weeks this year.
Detroit’s other two games? They lost by 31 points to the Jets and they lost by three to the 49ers in a game they were losing 30-13 in the fourth quarter. Two garbage time TD’s made that one look much closer than it was. The Lions were nothing but red flags and wringing hands after two weeks of the HC Matt Patricia era but he faced off with his old team and made all things right in this market for Detroit. Detroit’s stock shot up last week in that prime time victory over the Patriots and that’s our immediate prompt to bring the hammer down against them.
You are going to hear the same damn thing about the Cowboys over and over and over this week until it’s embedded in your brain. You’re going to hear about an offense that can’t get out of its own way. You’re going to hear how Dak Prescott was placed in a bad situation after Dez Bryant and Jason Witten were not replaced with credible players. Prescott has not thrown a TD pass in seven of his last 11 starts and Dallas hasn’t been able to move five yards. Dallas scored eight points in Week 1 at Carolina and 13 points last week in Seattle but that game was 24-7 with under four minutes to go when Dallas scored a garbage TD.
You have to be really careful to not get caught up in the talk that get others to invest in the wrong side. Let the talking heads get caught up in all the X’s and O’s and try and predict the outcome or how the game will play out. They’ve been doing that for 100 years and they keep getting it wrong. Meanwhile, we’ll point out that it’s a letdown spot for Patricia and the Lions, as he wanted that win last week so badly and he also has the Packers on deck next week. Additionally, do you not think that Prescott and the “Boys aren’t sick of hearing how inefficient the offense is? Of course they are and this is a response game in a perfect situational spot. We’ll continue to preach to ignore the stuff that influences the market most and pay more attention to value. In that regard, the “Boys in a foul mood are spotting less points than they should be based solely on the Lions resonating win over a New England team that is a complete and utter mess this year.
Pick: DALLAS -2½ -110 (Risking 2.2 units - To Win: 2.00)
