7-28

[GordonGekko]

Another Monday lacking some success from my end.

Today's Games:

Ny @ Tampa Bay:
The Yankees performed well last night and continue in 1st place among the tough AL East. Today they face Kasmir who's had a disappointing season to say the least. He's had some decent games and then explodes during them. The Rays face CC and have had some trouble for lefties. I see the Yanks handling again tonight. Market has stayed consistent so far with an increase slightly on the Yanks.

Toronto @ Seattle:
Which team is more overvalued? Washburn opens as a 130 favorite and the market eats up over 12-15% already. I know Rapzinski is good and a lefty but on the road as a favorite?

LA Dodgers @ St. Louis:
Wainwright opened at 140 and quickly down to 125/120 in most books. Wainwright has been very consistent all year and with the addition of Holliday its easy to say that he'll get majority of fastballs down the middle. He's had some success vs Billingsley in the past with 3 HR's off him.

Chicago White Sox @ Minn:
Different day and different week and Buehrle is now a plus 120 dog vs Baker away. He's struggled vs Minn but last two starts have been right on the ball. Not sure on this one..

I'm looking at:

Boston, Seattle, NYYankees, St.Louis, Atlanta..

more to follow.

 

[hcskip]

Nice writeups...thx...!

 

[louisvillekid]

well what is your opinion on Tor/Sea, LAD/Sea,and CHW/Minn, you gave a little snippet of info, but what is your overall lean on each.

 

[hcskip]

Read the last line, where he gives his leans.

 

[GordonGekko]

well what is your opinion on Tor/Sea, LAD/Sea,and CHW/Minn, you gave a little snippet of info, but what is your overall lean on each.

Toronto @ Seattle:
The polish prince awaits a Washburn in Seattle. The public is favoring Seattle yet the price dropped dramatically. Washburn has had 10 home starts this year and 9 have been of quality nature. He's easily pitching over his head so far this year and has been doing against decent teams. There is no doubt that this will be a close game but when an opposing pitcher walks 3-4 batters every game, I'll take a Lefty who has kept them in the game.

 

[buffettgambler]

Good write-ups GG,
I would be careful with betting the Yankees no matter how compelling they look and how well they are playing. About a month ago, when the Yankees were starting their upward trend, I stated that I was quite suprised that both oddsmakers and the market alike were not picking up on their true worth and leaving value on the table in backing them- something very rare with this Yankees team. Now that the solid play has continued for a prolong period of time, it looks like oddsmakers are really being forced to inflate their lines knowing full well they will get a skewed inflow of bettors backing them. Sure this artificial inflation might not appear to be their in the short run, but over a long series of bets, betting into inflated lines can be an absolute killer.

The market is even tellling oddsmakers that they are going overboard with their inflation, bidding down the line over 10%, and putting their money on a pitcher clearly not right against the Yankees Ace. It looks like price inelastic bettors bid up the Yankees slighly since the bottom, but my guess is that the overal market will correct this short term uptick.

 

[GordonGekko]

All plays subject to change:
Philadelphia @ Arizona (-108)

A good pitching matchup brewing in Arizona where the DBacks take on the hot Phillies. Haren is a machine who has dominated this year and if he wasn't on the DBACKS may have a tremendous record and easily CY YOUNG runner up. His team hasn't done well vs lefties but Hamels hasn't been a dominating road force all year. He owns a WHIP of 1.638 on the road and only 3 of his 8 starts have been of quality nature. The Philadelphia bullpen is better than Az and look for Haren to pitch at least 7 against this formidable lineup. I'm waiting to see what the line does all day...

 

[GordonGekko]

Good write-ups GG,
I would be careful with betting the Yankees no matter how compelling they look and how well they are playing. About a month ago, when the Yankees were starting their upward trend, I stated that I was quite suprised that both oddsmakers and the market alike were not picking up on their true worth and leaving value on the table in backing them- something very rare with this Yankees team. Now that the solid play has continued for a prolong period of time, it looks like oddsmakers are really being forced to inflate their lines knowing full well they will get a skewed inflow of bettors backing them. Sure this artificial inflation might not appear to be their in the short run, but over a long series of bets, betting into inflated lines can be an absolute killer.

The market is even tellling oddsmakers that they are going overboard with their inflation, bidding down the line over 10%, and putting their money on a pitcher clearly not right against the Yankees Ace. It looks like price inelastic bettors bid up the Yankees slighly since the bottom, but my guess is that the overal market will correct this short term uptick.

Agree totally with the Yankees meeting and exceeding what they are worth especially against a good TBay team on the road. I'm not sold on Kasmir yet and against a good Yankee lineup, he may have his problems right away.

What are your thoughts on the other games? Haren? love that guy wish he was on the Sox..

 

[buffettgambler]

Agree totally with the Yankees meeting and exceeding what they are worth especially against a good TBay team on the road. I'm not sold on Kasmir yet and against a good Yankee lineup, he may have his problems right away.

What are your thoughts on the other games? Haren? love that guy wish he was on the Sox..

My second biggest bet on the overnights was the Phillies +117. They were a steal at that price. The current market price has wiped at most of their value, but still think the Dbacks are overvalued at their current market price.

Haren has been amazing so far this year. His last start has to have you raising questions though, as he was hit very hard against one of the worst lineups in baseball. Last year in July, he hit a wall, allowing four or more runs in 4 of his six starts in August, finishing that month with a near 6 ERA, and only averaging six innings per start in September. In 2007, before the All Star Break, Haren might have been the best pitcher in baseball, a first half that was very comparable to this years. After the all star break, his ERA was nearly twice as high as the first half. In 2006, that same wall was hit, and he finished the second half of the season with a near 5 ERA, witch each suceeding month getting worse. This guy has had a distinct history of breaking down late in the season. Whether last start was just a fluke or a sign of things to come has yet to be determined. But one thing is painfully obvious, oddsmakers priced him for perfection, and the market said not so fast.

 

[GordonGekko]

Buffett,

Just looked over his years past 2nd half stats and total regression compared to first half. Market really took some initial buy ins especially with Philadelphia, Toronto, and San Diego.

Was your largest bet Tampa Bay?

 

[GordonGekko]

What do you see today? I'm looking at a heavy card myself..

 

[buffettgambler]

Buffett,

Just looked over his years past 2nd half stats and total regression compared to first half. Market really took some initial buy ins especially with Philadelphia, Toronto, and San Diego.

Was your largest bet Tampa Bay?

I think it is beyond regression with Haren. I think there is actually a structual change in his mean (or true producivity rate) after he accumulates a certain pitch count.

Tampa was my third largest bet, with an average lay of +132.

My current largest bet outstanding is on the Rangers with an average lay of -114. I think there is a combination of things going on with this. Oddsmakers were bearish on Padilla's pitching capability after swine flu. He is probably be on a pitch count and a short leash, but that is a good thing, as their bullpen arms are better than he is. But I think the main overvaluation lies with French, a pitcher oddsmakers are giving too much credit to. 3 of his 4 starts were against the Twins, Royals, and Mariners. The kid has never had overpowering stuff at any level, is a flyball pitcher pitching today in a hitters park against a lineup stacked with home run hitters. Much like Mazzaro, once teams figure this guy out, he won't be effective. His short leash is counterproductive, as the underbelly of the Tigers pen should be outmatched against this lineup.

 

[GordonGekko]

I think it is beyond regression with Haren. I think there is actually a structual change in his mean (or true producivity rate) after he accumulates a certain pitch count.

Tampa was my third largest bet, with an average lay of +132.

My current largest bet outstanding is on the Rangers with an average lay of -114. I think there is a combination of things going on with this. Oddsmakers were bearish on Padilla's pitching capability after swine flu. He is probably be on a pitch count and a short leash, but that is a good thing, as their bullpen arms are better than he is. But I think the main overvaluation lies with French, a pitcher oddsmakers are giving too much credit to. 3 of his 4 starts were against the Twins, Royals, and Mariners. The kid has never had overpowering stuff at any level, is a flyball pitcher pitching today in a hitters park against a lineup stacked with home run hitters. Much like Mazzaro, once teams figure this guy out, he won't be effective. His short leash is counterproductive, as the underbelly of the Tigers pen should be outmatched against this lineup.

I had a feeling you would be on Tampa Bay as well. The Rangers bullpen has pitched extremely well and I was very surprised with O'Day, Wilson, Fransisco and Jennings dominated the Sox in the previous series. They are having good years including Jennings..a former mop up guy.

Villaneuva -200 in some spots?
Do you like Wainwright in this spot tonight?

Seattle? I'm worried about the bullpen holding a 3-2 type of game..

 

[TheHungerForMore]

What's your line on Marlins buffet? wish i could of got the open at +120 but settled with +113. IMO the line is way off should be even at worst.

 

[TheHungerForMore]

We have a lot of the same bets Buffet. Nice. Phillies +116, Rangers -115, Rays +135. I like a lot of home teams on today's card.

 

[GordonGekko]

Hunger,

On all of em with exception of NY Yankees (-132). I've also put some plays on Seattle (-118), Boston (-230), Florida (+106) and looking at 3 others as well.

GOOD LUCK

 

[TheHungerForMore]

Hunger,

On all of em with exception of NY Yankees (-132). I've also put some plays on Seattle (-118), Boston (-230), Florida (+106) and looking at 3 others as well.

GOOD LUCK

Was and still looking at Mariners, it's a tough one. Washburn hasn't regress and is on a row right now. His numbers aren't sustainable, going against a team that's gonna stack the right side. Line is low though. So throw me a couple reasons that i might be missing.

 

[lazyeye]

my picks

<table id="betChart" align="center" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><tbody><tr class="odd"><td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Cubs (Chicago)</td> <td class="betInfo">-106</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">20:05 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Astro-Cubs(-Osw-Dem-072809+"); </script> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">RedSox (Boston)</td> <td class="betInfo">-240</td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">19:10 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Athle-RedSo-Maz-Buc-072809+"); </script> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Mariners (Seattle)</td> <td class="betInfo">-120</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">22:10 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-BlueJ-Marin-Rze-Was-072809+"); </script> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Angels (LAA)</td> <td class="betInfo">-210</td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">22:05 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-India-Angel-Huf-Jer-072809+"); </script> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Brewers (Milwaukee)</td> <td class="betInfo">-186</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">20:05 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Natio-Brewe-Bal-Vil-072809+"); </script> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Reds (Cincinnati)</td> <td class="betInfo">-136</td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">19:10 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Padre-Reds(-Cor-Arr-072809+"); </script> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Giants (SanFrancisco)</td> <td class="betInfo">-131</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">22:15 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Pirat-Giant-Mor-Zit-072809+"); </script> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Rockies (Colorado)</td> <td class="betInfo">-131</td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">19:10 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Rocki-Mets(-Mar-Pel-072809+"); </script> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Orioles (Baltimore)</td> <td class="betInfo">-121</td> </tr> <tr class="odd"> <td class="betInfo">19:05 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="trLineThin" colspan="3">
</td> </tr> <script language="javascript"> productBrandBuf.append("Base-Royal-Oriol-Ban-Ber-072809+"); </script> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">07/28/09</td> <td class="betInfo">Yankees (NewYork)</td> <td class="betInfo">-139
</td> </tr> <tr class="even"> <td class="betInfo">19:05 ET</td> <td class="betInfo">
</td> <td class="betInfo">



:cripwalk:
</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[buffettgambler]

I had a feeling you would be on Tampa Bay as well. The Rangers bullpen has pitched extremely well and I was very surprised with O'Day, Wilson, Fransisco and Jennings dominated the Sox in the previous series. They are having good years including Jennings..a former mop up guy.

Villaneuva -200 in some spots?
Do you like Wainwright in this spot tonight?

Seattle? I'm worried about the bullpen holding a 3-2 type of game..

GG,
I have been caught off guard with the Rangers bullpen this year as well. My valuation of them has been for lower then their current actual performance, which has lead to a negative ROI in games in which I have bet against them. That said, I am still valuing this bullpen materially worse than the level of their current performance.

I found more value on the Nationals yesterday compared to today. It looks like I missed the boat by not placing a bet on them earlier today, as the market has brought down their price (after bidding it up) to where oddsmakers suggested. They will still probably be a small play for me.

The Dodgers have been starting to get a bit pricey, so I expected oddsmakers to open up Wainwright undervalued as they usually do. They didn't. The market has bid down their asking price a bit, but they still are just fairly valued.

I had the Blue Jays yesterday, and it looks like the market just opened an opportunity to have them as a small play today. It finally looks like the market has given up on the Blue Jays, now valuing them near their true performance. They have yet to give up on the Mariners though, still allowing opportunities to go against them.

 

[buffettgambler]

What's your line on Marlins buffet? wish i could of got the open at +120 but settled with +113. IMO the line is way off should be even at worst.

I am going to have to disagree with you here Hunger. I valued the this game at Braves -127/Marlins +127. A couple hours after the open, Pinny's no vig price was -127. It looks like I am agreeing with the oddsmakers and you are agreeing with the market. I would rather be on the market's side, as they are a more efficient discounter of information. I found value on Nolasco in recent prior starts, but I think the market is starting to get ahead of themsevles hear. Normalzing his numbers for quality of lineups he faces, and his hot season is worse than it appears on the surface. He may have his hands full tonight.