7-1 In NFL, Week 17 Picks...

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Dreamin' Big
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Cardinals -7 : I got on this play on Tuesday when the line as a lot more attractive. At -6 the play was still a high value play in my eyes. Now at -7, I still feel like it's worth the investment, although there is a good chance that the Cardinals will give up a "meaningless", late TD that'll lead to a push for those who get it at -7. I also wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cardinals completely blow Seattle out (or at least by 2 TDs) of the stadium.

Rams +14 : This line might only get more attractive as people are going gaga over the Falcons. I like the Falcons, especially at home, but I don't see them proving much by running up the score in this game. We know that Atlanta is playing to win and hoping Carolina loses so that they can get the first round bye. Both teams play at noon CT. One thing to keep in mind, if Falcons head coach, Mike Smith, sees that the Panthers are up big at the half or after the 3rd (coaches/players can say they don't scoreboard watch all they want, MOST of them do), he'll sit some of his regulars and not go all out anymore since they'll have nothing to play for. He'll still want the win, of course, but may let up enough to let the Rams cut it down to within a two touchdown lead.

Redskins/49ers u37.5 : A battle of two good defenses and two bad offenses.
Some random numbers to consider...
- Washington's average game score has been 34.0 (16.1 PPG + 17.8 PPGA).
- If the total was 37.5 in Washington's last 10 games, the under would be 9-1.
- The average total in Washington's last 10 games has been 30.3.
- San Francisco's average game score has been 44.6 (20.8 PPG + 23.8 PPGA).
- San Francisco's last 4 games average score has been 26.8.
- If the total was 37.5 in San Fran's last 4 games was 37.5, the under would be 3-1.
- If the total was 37.5 in Wash's last 10 and San Fran's last 4, the under would be 12-2.
...something to keep in mind; the Washington numbers are a lot more consistent and should be recognized as better numbers because of San Fran's coaching change on 10/20. It took Mike Singletary a month and dropping his pants during one halftime speech to get the Niners to play the defense he wants them to play. Both these teams see this as what will be statement games for their coaches. Should be a good, defensive battle.


That's my card for Week 17 so far. I also highly recommend you guys to take Kingdom Come's two-play teaser (Saints +10 and Packers -2.5). I jumped on that one myself on Tuesday as well.

Good luck all.
 

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bol on your plays. SL mailed it in long ago, they have something like 8 losses of 17+ pts. No reason to expect them to show up here.

I'm not trying to be a wet blanket but I'm skeptical that Arz, thats covered 1 game ib the last 5 weeks will beat a SF team thats covered 3 of their last 4.

I really, really like the SF/Was under.....this could easily be a 13-6 game. Its one of my larger plays this week.

This is a very tough week in the NFL, a wide vareity of motivations, teams needing a win and teams simply wanting to get out of the week healthy. The moral might be......play your teams but play them small.
 

Dreamin' Big
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USCMD - yeh, week 17 looks tough. GL.


everyone -
if anyone needs help with a game i didn't list, here are some of my leans (if anyone cares lol)...
Panthers -1.5
Cowboys/Eagles u42.5
Giants/Vikes u41
Bills +5.5
Pats/Bills u40

...ill probably be putting a little dough on all these plays.
 

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I'm on Cowboys vs Eagles under. I haven't really seen a lot of people comment on it. Good luck!
 

Dreamin' Big
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Rams are really impressing me thus far.
Panthers looking very good.
The Pats/Bills game may not go over 10 lol.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Anyone watching the Rams/Falcons? With the Panthers up 30-10 earlier, did Atlanta pull their starters in the 2nd half?
 

Dreamin' Big
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Plays go 2-1
Leans go 3-2

Overall on the Season: 9-2


anymore late plays/leans...i like miami and miami over

Sorry man, I liked Miami also but didn't make a play on it. Hope you did and if so, congratz.

I'm working on the Sunday Night Game and may have a play.
 

Dreamin' Big
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A lottt of late action on the Broncos. Should be a good game.
No plays, but two leans:
Broncos +7.5
Den/SD u50
 

Dreamin' Big
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I had to point this out from my other thread...

I see them lighting it up against Seattle just to show that they haven't packed it up and aren't just waiting it out until the playoffs start (although they definitely did vs. New England). Add on the fact that the Cardinals are 5-0 against their division foes and have scored as follows against NFC West opponents...

At Home: 63-34 in 2 games (31.5-17.0 avg), +29 (+14.5 avg)
On Road: 83-46 in 3 games (27.7-15.3 avg), +37 (+12.4 avg)
Overall: 146-80 in 5 games (29.2-16.0 avg), +66 (+13.2 avg)

...and they beat Seattle by 13 points, 34-21 :lolBIG:

I love when the numbers don't lie!
 

Dreamin' Big
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A lottt of late action on the Broncos. Should be a good game.
No plays, but two leans:
Broncos +7.5
Den/SD u50

wow... thank God I stayed away. those were based strictly on late line movement which clearly was way off and which proves why i dont base my picks just on line movement. but it helps some times when you combine it with research you do on your own.
 

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