6th *Biggest Bet of Year* Play (Nevada +26)

[glennlovecolleen3]

Biggest Bet of Year Plays:
3-2 (+4u)

***** NEVADA +26 (over Boise st) *****

I LOVE THIS GAME!!!!
I LOVE THIS GAME!!
I LOVE THIS GAME!!!

YOU WANNA KNOW WHY I LOOOVE THIS GAME!!???!

First off, let us thank espn!! Thank you bcs!! Please, please please hype Boise st more and MORE!!!! So the books can give us more absolutely ridiculous spreads like these!!! 26 pt spread!?!? ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!? I was thinking, "was boise st playing this game at home??" Then I saw that it was in NEvada, and i thought it was an error!! Boise st has absolutely noooo business giving 26 pts on the road after how they performed away from the blue turf this season. This is a joke!!!

Just like all the Oklahoma media hype, I bet many people became afraid to go with Tex am and Ok st, even when these teams were getting double digit spreads!!! I'm not being fooled by "hype."

NOW ON TO THE GAME...........

Nevada's undefeated at home and can score a ton of points, check this out....

score 59 vs Sac st
score 38 vs Buffalo
score 35 vs Rice
score 54 vs Tulsa
score 42 vs San jose st

And Boise st on the road allows a ton of points to be scored against them........

allowed 31 pts at Utep
allowed 42 pts at Tulsa
allowed 49 pts at San jose st

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what I'm seeing. This means I'm expecting Nevada to put up some points in this game, which is highly likely will happen. And with a 26 pt spread cushion(I still can't believe it's that high), Boise st might have to score 60+ pts to cover, which is unlikely.

Let's look at this game even deeper............

Boise st gets all the hype, but teams like Nevada gets no media attention so people don't realize how talented they are at key offensive positions:

Nevada QB Jeff Rowe:

This guy is a pretty damn good passer, but ofcourse he plays for nevada so he doesn't get the hype Boise st Zabransky or Hawaii's Chang gets. When people talk about the wac, it's always Boise, fresno or Hawaii. Do you know who is the third leading passer in the wac behind Zab and Chang? You guessed it, Jeff Rowe!!! He has only thrown 3 INT's in 5 home games this season. He has 58% pass completion all season. He has more TD passes than Zabransky and less than 100 yards behind Zabransky, but Rowe gets absollutely no attention(again, good for us, heh heh!! cause he will be our secret weapon vs boise st). Check out how Rowe stacks up to the other wac qb's here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/stats/bycategory?cat=Passing&conference=I-A_WAC

Nevada RB (also WR) Talib Wise:

Talib Wise has developed beyond expectations in the last two games. He can catch the ball and is now playing RB. In his last two games, vs SMU, he caught 8 passes for 149 yards!!! And vs Fresno st in their last game, he ran 21 times for 124 yards!!

Nevada's top WR Nichiren Flowers:

If you saw this guy play before, he is one of the most talented receivers in the wac, even in the nation!! This guy could be on an NFL team in the future. Ofcourse with no hype, talented guys like this gets hidden from the public. Flowers is the top receiver in the wac in receptions and yards with 1052 (no one even comes close in the wac). Check it out here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/stats/bycategory?cat=Receiving&conference=I-A_WAC&year=2004&sort=15

Flowers ranks 7th in the nation in receiving yards, 5th in receptions:
http://sports.yahoo.com/ncaaf/stats/bycategory?cat=Receiving&conference=I-A_all&year=2004&sort=15

The triple threat of Rowe, Wise, and Flowers are the toughest combination of offensive talent that Boise st will play on the road this season. Utep, with even less talent at those key positions, scored 31 against Boise st, Tulsa with even less talent scored 42 on boise st, and San jose st with even less talent than Tulsa still tacked on 49 on boise st!!!!

Can you imagine what Nevada, who has more talent on offense than those other three teams, will do to Boise st???!?! (Especially playing at Nevada). I'll admit, Nevada doesn't have a good defense, but San jose st and Tulsa aren't known for their defenses either and they rose up in their own house and took Boise st down to the wire. Looking on the other end, Boise st's defense is no where near as good as they were last season. Their must be something special about their blue turf, because once they step on green turf, they're defense goes down a couple of notches. Boise st might score a lot, but expect Nevada to be lighting up the scoreboard, too, AND with a 26 pt cushion added on to that, ARE YOU KIDDING ME!!! Again, I love this game!!

Wait, do I dare go out on a limb and say Nevada, a huge underdog, will upset Boise st! outright?!? Nah, I won't say it, but I wouldn't be surprised, however, with Boise st's nack of pulling out wins, I'll be more than happy to take the ridiculously bloated spread!!

Goodluck!

 

[WCBias]

Great analysis...great call! Just got back from MGM and I'm holding my Nevada ticket now.



GL

 

[TheOdyssey]

Looks good and great analysis. Good to see ya back. I will be on the same side.

 

[winkyduck]

i already took the Pack and pretty much for the same reasons you pointed out.


think it is at least 5 points too high and maybe a lot more

i put Boise/Iowa/Hawaii all in the same category

they are KILLERS at home and pathetic on the road

 

[AlwaysKeen]

agree with this post about Nevada here...I'm from Reno and have followed this team...Boise has definitely had a hard time covering big spreads on the road vs. decent home teams...if I did bet the game, I'd take Nevada and the points...

 

[Nomad1951]

this info extremely helpful! I might also take a look at the over if my book has it...

thanks again!

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Thanks everyone!!

The game is going to be on ESPN!!!! It's going to be fun to watch!!!

 

[ppeter]

What is the expected weather?

 

[TheOdyssey]

Glennlovecolleen3,

First off let me say thanks for your plays. You are one of the better cappers on this site. Initially I was thinking Neveda was the easy play here but I am starting to get a little shy because of how much this means to Boise. They really have to come out and not just beat but destroy Nevada. Does this cause you any concern. Thanks in advance.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Glennlovecolleen3,

First off let me say thanks for your plays. You are one of the better cappers on this site. Initially I was thinking Neveda was the easy play here but I am starting to get a little shy because of how much this means to Boise. They really have to come out and not just beat but destroy Nevada. Does this cause you any concern. Thanks in advance.

Thanks, i appreciate it. I think most of my success comes from discipline from playing so few games.

You're right, this means a lot to Boise st, but it also means a lot to Nevada.

Boise st motivations:
- Hammer Nevada and impress the BCS.
- Undefeated season on the line.

Nevada motivations:
- Trying to keep home undefeated streak in tack this season, theirs also lots of pride there.
- This is Nevada's bowl game, this is it, they're throwing everything into this game. This game is actually better than a bowl game if they had one because they would not be playing a ranked team if they went to some obsure bowl.
- Nevada on national tv since I can remember. They don't want to be showed up.
- Nevada playing against a ranked team, plus conference foe, huge motivation.
- Big time players usually show up in big time games. The passing receiving combo of Rowe and Flowers are one of the top air threats in the nation that no one has seen yet. These two guys play a lot better at home, too. Flowers avg's over 100+ yards per game at home. Also a game he can showcase his skills on tv for the NFL scouts.
- Nevada's defense sucks, but I feel in big games like these, they rise it up a couple notches.
- If Nevada can win or keep this game close on national tv, the exposure would give them great advertisement for future recruits. I bet Nevada had this game marked down in their locker room. The coach and players want to show the nation and future recruits a good game.

This game means a lot to both teams. But with no media attention on Nevada(who has some great talent on offense), and with boise st getting all the hype in the media, highlights on espn, and winning streak on tv, has made the spread for this game ridiculously high. If Utah was going into Nevada, I wouldn't have touched that game cause I think the Utah hype is for real, they are a legit bcs team, but Boise st hype is overrated.

Boise st knew they had to run the table in order to have a chance at a BCS bowl, so they went into every game this season knowing they had to win it, and win it big if they could, that means going into San jose st and Tulsa during the season and winning big, but they barely escaped those games. Ofcourse this is their last game of the season and they got a bit more motivation because of that, but looking at Nevada's side, this is also their last game, very last game, so they got tons of motivation, too.

Just my suggestions. Look at other sources or opinions on this game if you can find them. Ultimately pick the team you feel best that will cover the spread(or not play it?).

I'm confident in every play I go with, but seeing that I'm 3-2 this season, means that their was 2 games I never thought I'd lose. But that's why they call it gambling. I personally think betting is the most fun when you learn from others and ultimately use other's advice and pitfalls and study on your own, the games or teams you're familiar with, and use instincts and stats for the season the team is playing in(i don't like trends from from season's past, cause that was the past with different players on the team, that's why I start betting after the team has played a few games at the start of the season), and decide whether to bet it or not.

If it's any consolation, atleast putting money on this game will make watching it a whole lot more exciting. That's not my reason for playing it, but just things to think about.

 

[moneymario]

<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TD class=mbt width=100><CENTER>TONIGHT</CENTER></TD><TD class=mbt width=100><CENTER>TOMORROW</CENTER></TD><TD class=mbt width=100><CENTER>TOMORROW</CENTER></TD><TD class=mbt width=100><CENTER>SUNDAY</CENTER></TD><TD class=mbt width=100><CENTER>MONDAY</CENTER></TD><TD class=mbt width=100><CENTER>TUESDAY</CENTER></TD></TR><TR><TD class=mbt>High: 45°F
Low: 31°F

</TD><TD class=mbt>High: 40°F
Low: 16°F

</TD><TD class=mbt>High: 40°F
Low: 16°F

</TD><TD class=mbt>High: 29°F
Low: 10°F

</TD><TD class=mbt>High: 31°F
Low: 9°F

</TD><TD class=mbt>High: 35°F
Low: 17°F

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



RENO NEVADA

 

[TheATMMachine]

I like Nevada too but damn Boise has smacked these boys around the last 4 years!
Recent Meetings:
Date Away Home
11/29/2003 NEV 3 BOIST 56
11/23/2002 BOIST 44 NEV 7
10/27/2001 NEV 7 BOIST 49
10/23/1999 NEV 17 BOIST 52
10/31/1998 BOIST 24 NEV 52
11/08/1997 NEV 56 BOIST 42
10/12/1996 BOIST 28 NEV 66
09/17/1994 NEV 27 BOIST 37
09/11/1993 BOIST 10 NEV 38
10/26/1991 BOIST 14 NEV 17

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

ATM machine,

Good info!!! That could be another reason why the books made the line so high.

The reason why boise were so dominant in recent previous seasons is because they had QB Ryan Dwindiddie (who is better than Zabransky), and a better defense, too, which enabled them to score a lot of points and at the same time hold their opponent's scoring down.

This season, Boise st is allowing a lot more pts to be scored on them, especially vulnerable on the road.

 

[TheATMMachine]

Glenn,I'm with you on this one.Boise on the road has been ugly and what amazes me is they've only played 3 away games,how the hell do you get away with that! 2 of those they should've lost to terrible teams(san jose,tulsa) GO NEVADA!!

GL TO ALL

 

[TheOdyssey]

Glenn, after taking a closer look I think you are on the right side here. These smaller schools really do have a lot to play for when it comes to national television and recruiting. This could be a HUGE game for Nevada. If they could pull off the upset I think it could do wonders. We don't even need an upset. Just respectable. Thanks for the advise.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

weather will be about 40 degrees...has been fairly cold here...don't know if it's going to rain or not...don't know how the game being on TV will affect attendance...some people may stay home and watch...GL...

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

I heard Boise st has bits of snow falling, but expected to clear more by game time. Maybe more snow? Maybe scattered showers? Who knows? The weather has been weird, but definitely COLD!!

It doesn't matter!! Go Nevada!

 

[GAMEFACE]

How could Nevadas coach not see that fake punt a mile away? Nevada sucks maybe they'll get lucky with a back door cover, even if they do they are terrible.

 

[MrTeaser]

I though the exact same thing. What the hell did he think was gonna happen when the guy is looking back at punter.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

I'll take the backdoor cover, whatever it takes.

Down by only 14 now!!! Looks like Nevada made some adjustments at the half, looking better!!!

Go Nevada!!