| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 36 | 0.00 | -1.24 |
| Season to Date | 68 | 83 | 0.00 | +10.40 |
PHILADELPHIA -1½ +264 over Carolina
OT included. What a great spot for the Flyers to take care of business and bury the Hurricanes. Carolina’s stock is higher than it has been all year right now with four wins in its last five games. What stands out the most however, is that the Hurricanes have scored five goals in each of their last four games. That’s 20 goals in four games when previously they had trouble scoring 20 goals in 20 games. It’s nothing more than an anomaly. Carolina faced Anders Lindback twice over that stretch and in the other two games they scored 10 goals on 54 shots on net. That’s one goal every 5.4 shots. The goal scoring explosion is going to dry up real quick and this is the perfect situation for that to occur. Carolina is coming off games in Dallas, Anaheim and Arizona. One of our favorite angles is fading a team playing its fourth straight game in a different time zone. That applies here. It’s one of the toughest assignments for any team to face and we also love that the Flyers are staying with the hot Michael Neuvirth in net here.
Philadelphia is coming off games against St. Louis, the Islanders and Dallas. They take a big step down in class now and it’s worth noting that they picked up three out of a possible six points against that trio. Prior to that, Philly had won four of five games and five of its past seven. The Flyers are trending the right way. After a horrible start to the year, they’re coming on big time. From the beginning of October to the present, Philadelphia’s defense has shown a dramatic improvement and it’s getting better each game. The Flyers decided to dump a lot of dead weight in the off-season on defense and bring in almost an entirely new set and it’s starting to pay dividends. Reports out of practice say that the Flyers are highly energized and jacked up to get back to work. Philadelphia has not defeated the ‘Canes in regulation in the last six games but this is not that same team with slow-footed defensemen. This is a completely different team that the market is not aware of just how good they are about to become. One of the keys to value is staying ahead of the market and recognizing which teams are about to slump and which teams are about to soar. Philadelphia is high on our radar of teams on the verge of ascension and we’ll put that to the test here in this extremely favorable spot.
Edmonton +185 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers won 16 of their first 21 games but analytics said regression was inevitable. Analytics was right, as it usually is but the market believes that the Rangers current slump is just that and they’ll break out of it soon. We wouldn’t count on that. The Rangers have dropped eight of their last 10 games. While it would be unreasonable to expect them to lose eight out of every 10 games they play, it is very reasonable to suggest that this is a .500 hockey team at best. The Rangers are coming off three games on the Canadian West Coast in which they went 0-3 and allowed 14 goals against. This is New York’s first game back after said trip. In a scheduling oddity, the Rangers head right back out after this one for games in Winnipeg and Arizona. While it is not rare for a team to skip Winnipeg on that trip, it is rare to have to go right back out there after just one game back home. It’s not only physically challenging to have to do that, it’s mentally challenging as well and even more so when you are losing so many games. In any event, the Rangers’ confidence is low, they are in poor form, and they’re in a horrible scheduling spot.
Edmonton cannot wait to get back on the ice. They have won six in a row, which includes two victories over Boston and one against Dallas. The Oilers defeated the Bruins last night in Boston. Back-to-back games for these Oilers is of no concern whatsoever because energy comes from winning. Winning builds momentum so we would much prefer to play a team that is winning in the second game of a back-to-back scenario than a team that is winning that is off for two or three days. The Oilers have scored 18 goals over their last four games. This is a rare chance for many of these players to play a game at the most famous arena in the world. We certainly like Edmonton’s odds of bringing more energy than the Rangers. The Oil are confident and finding ways to win while the Rangers are a fragile group that is finding ways to lose. This juicy tag seals the deal.
CHICAGO -1½ +150 over Colorado
OT included. We very often discuss Corsi against numbers in this space but we’re going to look at the opposite side of that here and discuss Corsi for, an analytic that reveals total shots directed at the net at even strength. It's often expressed as either a differential, like plus/minus, or a percentage. Corsi is a proxy measure for offensive zone possession. The Avalanche rank near the bottom of the league in their Corsi for numbers. Only the Devils, Panthers, Sharks and Coyotes are worse while the Blackhawks rank 3rd in the league behind Los Angeles and Dallas. As for Corsi against, Colorado ranks dead last in the NHL. Remarkably, the Avs are coming off back-to-back road wins in Nashville and St. Louis and it’s extremely unlikely that they’ll complete a sweep of their current road trip in Chicago. In Nashville and St. Louis, the Avs were outshot by a combined and eye-opening count of 79-43. They were out-chanced 43-25 in those two games. The strategy used by the Avalanche was to induce the opposing goaltender into dozing off by firing away one shot every eight minutes. Look, the Avs got extremely lucky, especially in St. Louis where they were outshot 43-18. All the numbers suggest that the Avalanche are supposed to lose by three goals almost every time they take the ice. After two very lucky victories in a row on the road, the third one is likely to expose them as the NHL’s easiest team to defeat.
Chicago has lost three straight to Colorado and we can assure you they know about it. One of those losses occurred last season in Chicago in which the Blackhawks outshot the Avs, 54-24. Chicago has won two in a row and four of its last five. They have outscored the opposition 13-2 over those four wins. The Blackhawks have Edmonton and Buffalo on deck so there is no look-ahead situation here of any kind. Rested, in good form and with a score to settle against the Avalanche, Chicago is in a good spot to bury this opponent just to make sure they know who the boss is.
Vancouver +130 over MINNESOTA
OT included. After a 4-0 loss in Chicago and after losing four straight on the road, the Canucks are in line for a focused and strong effort here. The Canucks are not a good hockey team and we’ve covered that many times this season. However, they usually bring it and what they lack in talent they make up for in hard work and determination. Despite 11 wins in 30 games, Vancouver is rarely an easy out and we absolutely love the spot they are in here.
Minnesota has scored eight measly goals over its last five games but what makes that worse is that they played Colorado (x2), Toronto, Arizona and San Jose over that stretch. The Wild lost to Arizona 2-1 and they lost to the Avs 2-1 also. As a -220 favorite over the Maple Leafs on December 3, the Wild won 1-0. The Wild return home from a brief but difficult three-game trip through Colorado, Arizona and San Jose. Thus, this is their fourth straight game in a different time zone and we cannot overstate enough how difficult that can be on the mind and body. Darcy Kuemper has played pretty decent in Devan Dubnyk’s absence but it would be somewhat unreasonable to expect that to continue. Minnesota is a risky favorite to begin with. Put them in a hugely unfavorable scheduling spot and that risk increases. Throw in that they are having trouble scoring against weak defenses and the picture becomes even clearer. The Canucks win expectation here has to be 50% or better, thus making Vancouver one of the better value plays on today’s board.
Calgary/NASHVILLE over 5½ +134
OT included. We don’t play many totals simply because we find that there is so much value on sides. However, in this case, we see some strong value going over the number. First, there is the Calgary Flames, a team that gives up a ton of scoring chances and is forced to use a weak goaltender. The Flames have already tried out three goaltenders this season with Karri Ramo winning the job by process of elimination. Calgary is hot with five wins in a row but all those occurred at home with the final scores being 4-3, 5-4, 4-2, 4-3 and 5-4. The Flames scored four goals or more in every game over that span so they come in here with some hot shooters. The best news, however, is that they’ll be facing Pekka Rinne. Rinne’s save percentage in his last game against the Avalanche was .880. His save % in eight of his past 10 games was as follows: .880, .870, .861, .875, .867, .852, .842 and .824. His saves are mostly positional because he cannot move as fast as the game is played any more. The only reason that Rinne doesn’t allow more goals is because the Predators are adept at limiting scoring chances. Any lapse there and the opposition is in line to score a bunch.
Nashville is a hungry hockey team. When they win, they usually score four or five goals because they have to. The 2-1 games of the past are a distant memory for this group. The Preds are a team that creates a ton of scoring chances every game because of their outstanding group of puck-moving defensemen. With strong goaltending and one bona fide NHL center, the Preds would be the biggest threat to win the Cup but as it stands right now, they have neither. What they do have is the potential to score a lot of goals. What Nashville does constantly is dominate puck possession time in the offensive end but lose too many games because of weak goaltending. You take two weak goaltenders and put them up against two teams that can score goals and we’ll take our chances on this game going over the number.
Columbus +239 over DALLAS
OT included. Price dictates the play here. Dallas is indeed a monster that can score five or six goals on any given night. However, in this price range they are still far too risky because of shaky goaltending. The Stars dominating record has them overpriced again and it’s something we are not going to ignore. Dallas is just 3-3 over its last six games and 5-4 over its last nine games. In two of their last three games they were held to 20 and 26 shots on net. Capable of dominating and winning easy here is an absolute but this game isn’t likely going to be as easy as it appears.
Columbus lost at home to the Lightning last night but both Tampa’s goals should not have happened. The Bolts second goal was shorthanded and their first goal came on one of the worst giveaways you’ll ever see. The Jackets have played so much better on the road this entire season with a 7-10 record compared to a horrible 4-11 record at Nationwide. That matters and it’s significant too, as the Jackets are more relaxed once they get on the road. Yesterday we discussed how the Jackets luck has been all bad during this current funk that they’re in. They are not in bad form at all. The results have been poor but their play on the ice has not been and we’re more than willing to roll with them here. There is a chance that Dallas takes them lightly and there is always a good chance of Lehtonen or Niemi playing poorly.
All plays are for 2 units
