| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 32 | 0.00 | +9.12 |
| Season to Date | 56 | 63 | 0.00 | +19.66 |
All plays are for 2 units
New Jersey +123 over CAROLINA
OT included. We have covered the Hurricanes over and over in this space because they have been so undervalued all year and therefore they come in as a value play frequently. Carolina has some of the best advanced stats in the NHL. If anyone were to study advanced stats without looking at wins and losses, they would conclude that Carolina should be a top-8 team. However, Carolina has trouble in two very key areas. The 'Canes don't score goals and they don't prevent goals either because of putrid goaltending. Carolina's save % ranks second last in the NHL ahead of only Calgary. The Hurricanes have scored 50 goals in 24 games. Only the Flyers have scored less goals but that's really just a case of bad luck for Philly while Carolina's offensive woes are legit. Now you take a team that is second last in both goals for and save % and make them a favorite against a team that plays a similar style to their own and it's easy to pick a side. Furthermore, this is a goaltending mismatch (even with Kinkaid in net) plus a price and that's another reason to play the Devils. We have sided with Carolina many times this year and have been torched because Cam Ward or Eddie Lack can't stop a puck at a key moment. The take-back here on the Devils forces us to switch gears. Losing takes a toll. It takes an even bigger toll when you are playing so well and lose because the goaltender keeps letting you down. It's deflating and maddening to every player on that Carolina bench. What we saw happen with Minnesota last year until they got Devan Dubnyk, we are seeing with Carolina this year. The losses are piling up, the players are afraid to make a mistake because they have nobody to bail them out and now each game becomes more difficult to win that the last.
Arizona +157 over DETROIT
OT included. We played the Coyotes in Nashville on Tuesday in their first game of a trip and ripped up our ticket after the Coyotes allowed four third period goals. Arizona had a 2-1 lead going to the third but it's not because they were playing well. Nashville completely dominated that game, out-shooting the Coyotes by a wide margin of 41-15. The Preds out-chanced them 29-9 while limiting Arizona to just three high scoring quality chances. That's not how the 'Yotes play. What they lack in talent and experience, they make up for it in hard work and heart. Coach Dave Tippett does not tolerate poor efforts but in the Coyotes defense, it is virtually impossible to maintain a high intensity level in every game. Every team will be flat from time to time. We can almost guarantee a much better effort from Arizona here. Arizona remains a live pup. They have won six of its last 10 games with victories over Montreal and Los Angeles over that span. Put a Dave Tippet-coached team in against an opponent that has shown a propensity for playing sloppy, throw in a price tag in this range and we'll bite almost every time.
Remarkably, seven of Detroit's past eight games have gone to OT. The Wings are 4-3 in those games with a victory in the only game that didn't go to extra time. That means that the Red Wings have picked up points in eight straight games but they are playing with fire. Detroit is spending too much time in their own end and as a result, they are taking too many penalties. Detroit's Fenwick For % (FF%) ranks 26th out of 30 teams. The Red Wings other key metrics are very middle of the pack and Arizona is at least one team in this league that can match the Red Wings speed. Detroit is loaded with a slew of great forwards but its defense core leaves plenty to be desired and that's what makes them so vulnerable. We also like Detroit has rival Nashville on deck on Saturday and that Jimmy Howard gets the call in goal here over the superior Petr Mrazek.
Florida +149 over NASHVILLE
OT included. We want to make it clear that our fade against the Predators is not an attack on that team. In terms of personnel, Nashville is loaded with a great mix of talented vets and young players. It is not unusual for the Preds to completely dominate puck possession time in the offensive end. Nashville also has strong Corsi numbers. Out attack on the Preds is solely due to their goaltender, Pekka Rinne. Rinne had a great start to the year but he's been getting progressively worse each week. He allowed two goals to Arizona on Tuesday on three scoring chances. Rinne has gone from the second best save % after the first three weeks of the season all the way down to 16 th. Rinne's save %'s in seven of his last 10 games starting with Tuesday against Arizona: .867, .842, .852, .824, 808 and .857, Rinne's overall stats look fine but they have been regressing badly since late October. Every goalie in this league will have a great game from time to time. The good one's do it almost every night. Weak goaltenders cost their team games. A great game from Rinne is becoming a rare occurance. Rinne is at the same level now as Cam Ward, Jonathan Bernier and Jonas Hiller. By seasons end, Rinne's numbers will reflect that. The Preds are now 13-11 overall. They have just two wins over their last seven games and they are 0-5 this season against top-10 teams. Nashville is the only team in the NHL without a victory against a top-10 team. For the Preds to win, they have to really limit the opposition's chances while dominating time in the offensive end. Nashville is capable of doing that but as the chalk in this range with weak goaltending, the risk is too great.
Florida was high on our watch list before the season began but a slow start had us watching them more than backing them. The Panthers ironed some things out and may be now may just be ready for a big run. The Panthers have outshot four of their past five opponents. They have won three straight, which includes a victory in St. Louis. We especially like that the Cats have created five or more power-plays in three of those five games, which is a good indication that they are wrecking havoc in the offensive end. Florida's underlying metrics is trending the right way too. A month ago, the Panthers were ranked 14 th in Corsi Against. Today they are ranked 7 th. Over their last five games, Florida has picked up points against St. Louis, Detroit, the Islanders and Rangers with only outright loss during that span occurring against Los Angeles. The Panthers have also allowed two goals or less in three straight games. In fine form and very under the radar, Florida is on the rise and very worthy of backing here.
Toronto +201 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Maple Leafs got whacked in Winnipeg last night. Combine Toronto's eight wins in 25 games with last night's 6-1 loss and the result is a big market overreaction. Toronto has still won five of its last 10 games. In Toronto's last two loses prior to last night against Boston and Washington, they outshot that pair but a combined 76-52. The Maple Leafs have outscored the opposition 10-2 in their three victories. Since the beginning of November, Toronto has two wins over Dallas and although they lost twice to the Caps, they badly outplayed them once and led the other one by a goal with literally one second remaining in regulation. The Leafs continue to work and play hard under Mike Babcock and we love a Babcock-coached team to respond well after a bad loss.
Seriously, who the f**k are the Wild to be a better than a 2-1 favorite over anyone? Minnesota has two wins in its past seven games. One of those occurred against Nashville when they scored four times on Pekka Rinne in their first 23 shots. Their last win before Nashville came against Carolina and the Wild were outshot 39-21 in that game. Minnesota is 12-11 on the season. They are hovering around .500 now and they'll probably be hovering around that mark in April. The Wild rank 24th in Corsi For, 15th in Corsi Against and 25th in shots differential. The Wild rank near or below the middle in many categories and worse than 20th in most. Yeah, they can win here but it is elite teams are favored in this range against weak competition. The Wild are not even close to being elite and the Maple Leafs are not weak competition. Based on value alone, the Maple Leafs are a must play here.
Colorado +120 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. The Rangers played in Brooklyn last night and lost in OT to the Islanders. That was New York's fourth loss in its last five games. The Rangers only victory over that span occurred against Carolina in a game that the Rangers were outshot in, 34-22. The Rangers have been outshot in six of their last seven games and most of those were by a wide margin. The Rangers will now play their sixth game in nine nights, their fifth game in seven nights, their fourth game in six nights, their third game in four nights and tail end of back-to-backs. In poor form and getting outplayed almost nightly, the Rangers are likely to be running on fumes here.
One thing we know for sure about the Avalanche is that they can score goals. They don't even need secondary scoring on most nights because their top line of Gabriel Landeskog, Nathan MacKinnon and Matt Dushene is on fire and near impossible to contain. Against this exhausted Rangers squad that is careless on the best of nights, that trio could certainly go off here. Colorado has won three if its last six games. They have been better on the road all season with a 7-8 record compared to a 3-7 record at the Pepsi Center. The Avs have scored three or more in six of their past seven. There are certain arenas in this league that every teams gets jacked up to play in. There is of course Toronto and Montreal, especially on a Saturday night and there is Madison Square Gardens in New York. Colorado rarely gets to play here so expect them to be motivated and focused. The Avs come in here at the perfect time too, as they catch the Rangers in poor form and extremely vulnerable due to exhaustion. Big overlay.
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