| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +3.40 |
| Last 30 Days | 34 | 30 | 0.00 | +28.76 |
| Season to Date | 37 | 40 | 0.00 | +15.04 |
All plays are for 2 units
Posted at 2 PM EST.
St. Louis +117 over N.Y. RANGERS
We’re not even going to discuss the Blues in length here because it is not relevant. Just know that the Blue Notes have been a regular season juggernaut for years and they are up to their old ways again this season. It’s also worth noting that goaltender Jake Allen has been spectacular. The Blues taking back a tag is always worth a close look and this one is no different. However, this one is more about fading the overpriced Rangers.
Once again we turn to won/loss records having influence on market perception and the betting line. The Rangers are considered to be an elite team with their 11-4 record. We’re suggesting that New York’s record is the most misleading in the game. The Rangers are coming off a 3-0 victory over Carolina. They were outshot 33-23 and had the puck 33% of the time. Against Carolina, New York scored twice in 11 seconds on their first three shots of the game. Against Washington recently, the Rangers scored five times on 22 shots. Prior to beating Carolina, the Rangers allowed 40 shots on net by Arizona and won 4-1. The Blue Shirts rank third last in the NHL in puck possession. They have been the luckiest team in the NHL with a shooting percentage against of 4.99%. We can’t even begin to explain how ludicrous that number is. It’s been all smoke and mirrors for the Rangers because they rarely outplay anyone and it’ll catch up to them very soon. We’ll put that to the test again here.
CAROLINA +111 over Minnesota
OT included. Minnesota is a strong 9-5 this year but we’re having a hard time trusting that they’re going to keep winning at this pace. Minnesota’s strategy this year is to stay out of the box and wait for opportunities. The Wild have been called for two minor penalties or less in 10 straight games. They have taken one minor in six of those. Despite spending less time in the box than any team, Minnesota is not dominating anything. Despite having a man advantage of 17 times to five over their last four games, Minnesota is just 2-2 over that span and had it not been for a brutal performance by Andrej Pavelec last game, the Wild likely would be 1-3 over that span. Their other victory over that span was 1-0 over Tampa Bay. The Wild are a middle of the pack squad in every sense. They are average in scoring, defense, offense, puck possession and goaltending. Minnesota has two wins in six road games. As road chalk, they offer up zero value.
Carolina is third last in the NHL in save percentage ahead of only Columbus and Calgary. Despite that, they insist on using Cam Ward in net as their #1 goaltender. That’s mind-boggling when they have a rock solid goaltender in Eddie Lack sitting on the bench the majority of the time. We’re assuming that the ‘Canes are hoping that Ward gets hot so they can showcase him for a potential trade. Why else would they keep going back to him after signing Lack in the off-season to a big contract? Carolina knows they are not going to do any significant damage this year so this looks like a ploy to entice another team to bite on Ward. In any case, Carolina is a strong possession team that excels in keeping the puck out of their own end. The ‘Canes are coming off a strong performance in New York against the Rangers in which they held a 33-23 shot advantage and a 67% to 33% puck possession advantage. That’s not unusual for this team. Rarely do the ‘Canes get outshot, outplayed or outworked. We cannot overstate enough just how well the Hurricanes are performing. The puck has not been going in for them but it’s not because of a lack of chances and so it’s only a matter of time before their shooting percentage increases big time. Wrong side favored.
Calgary +160 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. The Lightning just keep getting worse. Tampa has scored one goal or less in seven of its past nine games. Over their last two games, the Bolts have scored one goal. Tampa has mustered a mere 22 shots on net or fewer three times in their last nine games and now rank 28th in the league in shots on net per game. Be it a lack of motivation, frustration or a combination of things, something is just not right with the Bolts and now they’ll face a hungry team looking to go on a run.
When you wager on the Flames you are always taking a bigger risk than when you wager on most other teams simply because their goaltending is so bad (dead last in save percentage). However, we can’t let that deter us from playing the huge value on them. When Kari Ramo plays adequately, Calgary is usually going to win more than they lose. Calgary made good moves in the offseason to strengthen a couple areas. The blue line is among the NHL’s best, there is depth at forward which gives them many options and the addition of Michael Frolik was a great one, as Frolik does everything well including kill penalties. Dougie Hamilton is looking better each game. He makes Calgary deeper while giving them a big right-handed shot and a big presence. He checks a lot of boxes for them. Last year, the Flames defied the fancy stats. They had an unusually high shooting percentage, they had a dreadfully low Corsi close and they flirted with disaster by giving up leads and then leading the league with 10 wins when trailing after two periods. Every season, there are statistical outliers (the Avalanche did it the year before), but advanced stats are far more often a good indicator of a team’s ability and teams usually regress rather than sustain success with poor numbers. That does not apply to Calgary this year. They get deflated (who wouldn’t) when those soft goals go in and it affects everything they do on the ice so the analytics for this team is somewhat deceiving. The Flames are an extremely talented team that continue to take back big prices because their won/loss record is poor. Wins and losses do not tell the story of just how good these Flames are in every area besides goaltending. The risk on them decreases at prices like this because they are such a live pup every time they take the ice.
Toronto +214 over NASHVILLE
OT included. We have been insisting that the Maple Leafs are playing so much better than their record indicates but the victories were just not coming. Under Mike Babcock, the Maple Leafs are playing a structured, disciplined style of hockey but perhaps more importantly, the players care. Each individual on the Leafs bench is working their ass off for Babcock every shift. They want to win so badly for their coach because Babcock genuinely makes every player feel like he’s the most important player on the team. There are no more lame efforts or careless stretches of play for an extended period of time from the Maple Leafs. Toronto is coming off games against Dallas (x2), Washington, Detroit and Winnipeg. They defeated Dallas twice and picked up points in two others. The Leafs have now picked up points in four of their last five contests. Had it not been for a goal with one second remaining in regulation, they would have won in Washington too. The Leafs suddenly have some confidence.
Make no mistake about it. The Predators are a strong hockey team that shows up to play almost every single night. It is rare to catch the Predators napping, regardless of the situation. They just keep working hard and they never give up. What most people don’t realize about Nashville is that its goaltending is putrid. Pekka Rinne has long been regarded as one of the best in the business. That may have been true five years ago but now he’s a huge liability. Rinne is slow, he’s always flopping around and when he does make a save, it’s usually a lucky one because he often has no idea where the puck is. In his last start, Rinne allowed five goals on 26 shots for a save % of .808. He has been under a .862 save percentage in five of his last eight starts. The Preds are coming off a 7-5 victory over Ottawa. They have allowed four goals or more in four of their last five games. When the Preds are held to two or three goals, they are in big danger of losing and that makes them instant fade material when priced in this range. There are big profits on the way in fading Rinne when the Preds are favored and we’re not going to let up in our relentless attack on him.
Buffalo +149 over FLORIDA
OT included. The Panthers returned home from a brief three-game trip to the West Coast and promptly defeated the Flames, 4-3. Perhaps we should rephrase that and state that they defeated Kari Ramo of the Flames, 4-3. Florida’s first and fourth goals were soft like putty. Florida blew a two goal lead and didn’t look sharp at all for long stretches throughout the night. That is not an uncommon theme with this group lately, as they have been lethargic in many periods in many games already this year. Florida ranks 25th in puck possession. They are 1-5 against top-10 teams and 1-6 against top-16 teams. They also play their home games in an empty arena, which is demoralizing and does not help them out one bit.
The market just does not believe in these Sabres and so we’ll continue to try and cash in on that flawed perception of them. The Sabres have won four of their last five games. Prior to that, Buffalo went into Pittsburgh and outshot the Pens 53-29 in a 4-3 loss. They rank highly in all key analytical stats, including puck possession and shots for and against. The Sabres are strong enough this year to make the playoffs. This is a confident group that cannot wait to get back on the ice. They are young, energetic, and talented and very focused on the task at hand almost every game. Keep giving us prices like this on the Sabres and we’ll continue to bite. We make no exceptions here.
