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Call me Calos
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Haven't been posting lately but that doesn't mean I haven't been playing. I've been busy and haven't been able to share my thoughts. However, tonight I really like this play, and like it so much that I'm making it a 5* play.


5 units San Antonio/Phoenix under 214

This series has been a scoring fest. Including the regular season, the total when these two teams have matched up has gone "over" at 6-1. THAT'S 86%. In all those events the majority of the money has been riding that "over" too. Of the seven meetings this year this is the highest the total has been set. The lone time they went under was game 3 at San Antonio, when the number was at 213.5. The first thing Phoenix coach Mike D'Antoni talked about was the defense (while not much, but just enough) in the post game press conference. The players as well mentioned how they played with toughness not seen before in previous games. The Suns know that they'll have to play a more physical brand of basketball if they want to keep their hopes alive. Amare Stoudemire was a beast, particularly in game 4 with 31 points, but he'll have to contribute a lot more on the glass and defensively. Double-teaming Duncan proved successful and I expect to see more of this as the series continues. As for San Antonio, defense has always been a staple of their game. So I'm not worried about them, but I expect them to push their intensity up a level as they'll want to close this series out and rest up for the finals. However, Phoenix showed heart and determination and, with Joe Johnson back, I feel they can make this a series again. Both teams will get their shots and points will be scored but not enough for an "over" play. I'm getting flashbacks of last years Western Conference finals, when Derrick Fischer hit that prayer with .4 seconds on the clock, and the Lakers went on to win the series. Stoudemire's lone block on Duncan in the final seconds of the game plus his hustle to seal the deal may be the beginning of the slice by the dagger. If the Spurs look to close this out tonight, which I'll bet against, they'll need Parker to play strong and not fold like he did in last year's conference finals. With only 13 points on 5 of 17 shooting plus 6 turnovers to 5 assists, could this be a sign of things to come? Well, no team in conference finals history has come back from an 0-3 deficit, but this has happened only once. Hell, the Red Sox did last year, and they were three outs away from finishing their season. Good luck!

Bonus Play: 1 unit Phoenix -2.5
 

Steelers1

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Be careful

Generally I tend to agree with your analysis but with that said be careful because physical defensive games can also go over because of the fouls that bring trips to the line without the clock running. Also, if the game is close and it goes to OT you will also be in trouble.

I wish you well and hope you win but I hate going under because it is never a win until the final buzzer. With the over you can sometimes sit back and savor the win with minutes left on the clock.

Good luck
 

ChooseORLose

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I see your point, but if it comes down to foul shooting that will hurt the Spurs. Duncan and Parker both shot in the sixties during the regular season. In the playoffs it ain't much better as they're shooting 73.5 and 67.6 respectively. As a team they are shooting 73.6 in the playoffs and 72.4 regular season.

I definetly agree that it is hard to play an under and even harder to watch because the reasons you say. I'm on it though so there's no turning back.

I notice you made you have only one post. Welcome to the RX!
 

Fezzik

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Under is the obvious play tonight.

Show me a guy playing over 214.5 -110 tonight. I'll show you the reasons books clobber the recreational bettors again and again and again.
 
TomorrowsNewspaper

TomorrowsNewspaper

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Fezzik, do you mean it the obvious (square) or obvious (correct) play. I am as square as they come when it comes to basketball. A little help please.
 

ChooseORLose

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Tomorrow's Newspaper said:
Fezzik, do you mean it the obvious (square) or obvious (correct) play. I am as square as they come when it comes to basketball. A little help please.

I hope he means it is square play and not the obvious
 

ChooseORLose

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Hit the under by 18 points, too bad I missed the Suns plays. I'm never happy with mediocrity. Well, I'll be back tomorrow with another big play for the Pistons/Heat game. Hope I could be of some help.
 

thegame2005

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nice call:party:

had the over myself but glty
 

Steelers1

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Thanks and thanks also for the under play. I ended up with both winners last night due to your analysis and some late info from a good source who had his NBA parlay of the year. I picked up a little more than $1k plus another $1k on the series side play so I was real happy with the outcome. I would have been a bit concerned had SSA not closed out the game last night. You should have also done well last night despite having the Suns because you had 5 units on the under... right?
 
Dante

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Steelers1

welcome to the RX my fellow steeler fan....!!!:suomi:
 

ChooseORLose

Call me Calos
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Steelers1 said:
Thanks and thanks also for the under play. I ended up with both winners last night due to your analysis and some late info from a good source who had his NBA parlay of the year. I picked up a little more than $1k plus another $1k on the series side play so I was real happy with the outcome. I would have been a bit concerned had SSA not closed out the game last night. You should have also done well last night despite having the Suns because you had 5 units on the under... right?

I'm glad we both cashed. Yeah I did make out good thanks to the 5 units on the under but I strive for perfection. Be back with tonight's play in about an hour. Running late.
 
RIOSHILL

RIOSHILL

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Choose OR Lose said:
I'm glad we both cashed. Yeah I did make out good thanks to the 5 units on the under but I strive for perfection. Be back with tonight's play in about an hour. Running late.
Nice call!!!:103631605 :dancefool
 

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