5* jakes college plays week 2...

[fivestarjake]

5* PENN ST. -28 over syracuse

line is off 10-14 pts imo. penn st. just dominated the box score yet failed to cover(they didn't even score in the 2nd half). syracuse on the other hand played well against minny. we are getting value on penn st. here. this was played on sunday night @ 5dimes and i believe the current line reads -28.5. paulus and company are going to get a rude awakening here. minny dropped a ton of interceptions and now cuse takes on a very bruising defense. penn st. run game wasn't impressive vs akron but should be better here. joepa the gentlemen he is has to know his scoring margins of victory has to be larger because their schedule is so weak ooc. we'll see. i see paulus and company having a miserable day in happy vally...

PENN ST. 48 syracuse 6


i played another game but will update that plus update my week 1 record after dinner.

 

[Dwight_Schrute]

On the same play Jake, got in at 28 now up to 28.5. Early #s show players on Cuse, but im sure that will shift. Paulus was unimpressive, Minny has a weak D and he still only completed balls to wide open receivers. Only completions he will have are check downs to RB's, and he is very immobile back there. PSU should get tons of heat on him force a few fumbles and INTs. Also look for PSU NOT to get shut out for a second half here. They will put up 28 in first half and another 28 in 2nd half. No look ahead spot for them either with Temple on deck, then big revenge game vs Iowa. Nittany Lions will roll

 

[fivestarjake]

4* UL LAFAYETTE +7 over kansas st.
1* +250 ML

very surprised at this "low" line. vegas imo is already telling me in the line who covers(and hopefully wins su). ull is strong along the lines and i see kansas st. leaving with a loss here...

UL LAFAYETTE 29 kansas st. 26

 

[GoForIt]

4* UL LAFAYETTE +7 over kansas st.
1* +250 ML

very surprised at this "low" line. vegas imo is already telling me in the line who covers(and hopefully wins su). ull is strong along the lines and i see kansas st. leaving with a loss here...

UL LAFAYETTE 29 kansas st. 26

As a big K-State fan (I jumped on their wagon in the mid-90's and never got off despite living in the Atlanta area) I would be happy if K-State won by a point. I can't believe I'm saying that because Ron Prince ruined our once proud defensive reputation and now Snyder has to clean his mess up. Our defense was once so good that here is a stat for you. Pete Carroll is 0-2 SU against Kansas State as head coach of USC.

 

[fivestarjake]

updated week 1 record...

utah st,texas am,notre dame,cal,akron all covered

utah st bet was more of "i'll throw it out there and hope they cover" which luckily they did

texas am,cal and notre dame i had pegged nicely although i didn't expect nevada to be shut out.

akron was a very fortunate cover as the way penn st. dominated resembled more of a 45-7 score not 31-7.

all five games won 25*

now the bad news...

0-2 with my over/unders(which i will not play no more this year)

oregon looked terrible

georgia lost although the call on jones(?) was imo game changing

minny was also disappointing in not covering after such a strong start

utep probably gave the most disappointing performance.

lost a half unit on the utah st ml.

all in all just about minus -6.5 units. i'm flat betting everything this year so it wasnt all that bad. it was a good measuring stick to see where the teams are at. little behind right now but hopefully i catch up this week.

 

[fivestarjake]

As a big K-State fan (I jumped on their wagon in the mid-90's and never got off despite living in the Atlanta area) I would be happy if K-State won by a point. I can't believe I'm saying that because Ron Prince ruined our once proud defensive reputation and now Snyder has to clean his mess up. Our defense was once so good that here is a stat for you. Pete Carroll is 0-2 SU against Kansas State as head coach of USC.

i had USC both timeshno:

 

[United]

Not quite sure what hapened to Penn St in that 2nd half. I guess they had mercy on the opponent. Joe P back on the sidelines this year. Maybe he called oof the Lion attack. A couple of nice spreads for the home doggies in the big 10 this week. Now that the big 10 has the public perception that they are no good.

 

[fivestarjake]

5* NORTH TEXAS +135 over ohio...

looks like north texas might be an early undervalued team early. 1st they were installed as a 16 pt dog vs a regressing ball st team and won outright 20-10. north texas rushed for 296 yds in this game which helped them control the clock by 14 more minutes than ball st. check the total stats in this game and north texas dominated.

on the other side check these stats out...
uconn........ohio
17.............11 1st downs
7/18..........3/14 3rd down con
386............247 total yards
259............61 rush yards
5.3............1.9 rush per gain
4...............2 turnovers

final score??? uconn 23-16
uconn had almost a 200 yd rush advantage(5.3 per rush to 1.9 for ohio!!!!) and won by only 7. they covered a short # but the box score indicates a much larger scoring differential. the score remained "closer" due to 4 uconn turnovers. now ohio takes to the road vs another strong rushing team. the difference is north texas rush attack is aided by qb dodge who had 73 rush yards vs ball st. along with montgomery and dunbar this spells trouble for ohio rush defense. it will be a strange trip south for ohio also and n texas home opener.i feel north texas should be giving the 3 so i'll take the ml here.

NORTH TEXAS 34 ohio 24

 

[FearTheRaven]

Penn St. will be one of my largest plays this weekend.

Almost as big as the Bama-VT Over last weekend.

Feel very confident PSU cruises in this one.

 

[Jdiddy8four]

Penn State looks like a solid pick. I still have to do a lot of research before I pull the trigger. I always try to be thorough before I lay a ton of chalk, but this one seems obvious.

Syracuse suffered a heartbreaking loss after they completely crumbled in the 2nd half last week. Penn St also had a shaky 2nd half, but I think that was more and less due to the blowout fashion of their 1st half. I guarantee you that finishing the game was a big focus of both team's practices this week.

While Syracuse will be hungry for a rebound, it will not be easy against Penn St. Syracuse is still moving around players on the o-line. This is something that Odrick(sp) and Crawford will tee off on. Paulus had his moments last week, but he cannot afford to throw into traffic this week (like he did a few times last week). I look for the Penn St defense to get an early turnover or two and start the rout early. It will be interesting to see what happens in the 2nd half (which is a big focus for both teams). I guarantee that even if Penn State pulls away big in the first half, Syracuse will play to score the entire game. Look for potential late drives with Syracuse's 1st string offense against a few Penn St reserves. This could possibly lead to a back door cover.

 

[coitus_maximus]

Really liking your North Texas pick. Their QB is pretty good.
Diced through the Ball St. D.

Currently leaning on the +3 myself.

 

[fivestarjake]

Penn State looks like a solid pick. I still have to do a lot of research before I pull the trigger. I always try to be thorough before I lay a ton of chalk, but this one seems obvious.

Syracuse suffered a heartbreaking loss after they completely crumbled in the 2nd half last week. Penn St also had a shaky 2nd half, but I think that was more and less due to the blowout fashion of their 1st half. I guarantee you that finishing the game was a big focus of both team's practices this week.

While Syracuse will be hungry for a rebound, it will not be easy against Penn St. Syracuse is still moving around players on the o-line. This is something that Odrick(sp) and Crawford will tee off on. Paulus had his moments last week, but he cannot afford to throw into traffic this week (like he did a few times last week). I look for the Penn St defense to get an early turnover or two and start the rout early. It will be interesting to see what happens in the 2nd half (which is a big focus for both teams). I guarantee that even if Penn State pulls away big in the first half, Syracuse will play to score the entire game. Look for potential late drives with Syracuse's 1st string offense against a few Penn St reserves. This could possibly lead to a back door cover.

its possible cuse could backdoor but imo penn st. needs bigger point differential wins than 24. especially as weak as their out of conference games are. we'll see but i think cuse is getting stomped here. gl this week.

 

[fivestarjake]

4* SOUTH CAROLINA +7 over georgia...
1* SOUTH CAROLINA ML +243
question is can georgia "bounce" back after a deflating loss last week? defense looked great. they had that terrible call on jones when the game was still in doubt. i feel this loss will carry over into this weeks game. this is more of a "gut" feeling but i feel carolina not only covers the 7 but wins su...

SOUTH CAROLINA 14 georgia 13

 

[fivestarjake]

4* SMU +12 over uab
1* SMU ML +410

imo uab is overvalued this week due to last week's results. SMU definitely has the horses to go toe to toe with uab. i rate smu stronger than rice yet the oddsmakers want me to believe smu should get 6 more than rice. +12 is a ridiculous number here...

uab 39 SMU 36

 

[gynecologist]

I definitely think So.Car is the play.. Thinking about it myself.

 

[silver7]

Like Most Of Em!

except KSU, I know they're a avg. tm laying pts OTR, but, how the hell is ULL going to score? Lost their QB, all RB's, best WR, they do have a decent OL. Cats have 8 ret starters on D. If there's a total on this gm at any of my books I'm playing this to go under, as KSU is hurting on O as well.. BOL on all your plays, my fav. is S Car., in another lo scoring game. Also think the # is too hi for UAB to cover.:toast:

 

[mws]

Wow - haven't seen anyone else on SMU. I'm leaning that way myself. Also love that PSU play.

 

[nhoj]

Penn State is a covering machine, But my numbers on that game is 29. Which is right about where the books have it. Might want to check your numbers again just in case. Not trying to doubt you just saying take a second look the number is where it should be. I do lean toward Penn St in this match up. Good luck on your weekend.

 

[fivestarjake]

5* SOUTHERN MISS -14' over ucf...

not going to write much about this. i did the research and feel this line is about a td too low...

SOUTHERN MISS 45 ucf 17

thats about it for me gl to everyone this weekend

 

[fivestarjake]

I definitely think So.Car is the play.. Thinking about it myself.

gl this weekend gyno. south carolina total is up to 40 from 38. i hate when that happens but i'm not playing no more totals this year. just going to concentrate on sides.