5 Game Friday Conference Tournament Card

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38-34 YTD (2-1 YTD in Conference Tournament Games)


The first game on this list will start at approximately 8:20 PM. The other four games will be added later including some day games. Some people like to say "It is tough to beat a team three times". That was one of the myths they were using when the Ravens played the Steelers and we saw how that worked out. I forget the exact numbers, but at least in football it was actually more beneficial to the team facing double-revenge. Obviously, we are in different sports, but it can still apply. What would happen if New Jersey Tech played Pittsbugh 10 times? Exactly. Cleveland State has already beat Illinois-Chicago twice this year. Some will play the double-revenge angle, but I like the Vikings. I love the fact that they are single-digit favorites after not covering as double-digit favorites in their previous tournament game. Cleveland State has also shown they are good by losing to Horizon Power Butler twice by only two points and winning at Syracuse earlier in the year. The Orange catch alot of heat, but they are still a very solid team. The Vikings are also a remarkable 9-2 SU in their last 11 games. UIC had early victories in the year at Georgia Tech and at Vanderbilt, but they didn't have a good Horizon season. I'm well aware that they have won 5 SU in a row, but 4 of those teams are bottom-feeders. UIC's win against Wright State had to come at home in overtime. In my opinion the SU/ATS win streak and the double-revenge factor are overhyping UIC and creating value on Cleveland State.
TAKE CLEVELAND STATE -4

 

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Adding--------7PM-------Creighton is too explosive for Wichita State. Furthermore, the Shockers play in their 2nd game in two days. Creighton shoots an amazing 39% from 3-Point land and 76% from the FT line which could really come in handy if they need to secure the cover. You would think a great shooting team might struggle on defense. Nope. Creighton leads the Missouri Valley in Steals and Blocks. Creighton has also won 10 SU games in a row and is led by Booker Woodfox, one of the best shooters I've seen this year. This guy shoots a ridiculous 51% from 3-Point land. You might suspect why the line would be somewhat low for a team with many as advantages as Creigthon. Its because Wichita State beat them by double-digits in Wichita and that was the last time they played. Thus, value is on Creighton.
TAKE CREIGHTON -7

 

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Adding----11:30 PM-----San Francisco takes on Pepperdine. Both teams won on their opponent's court when they played each other this year. Pepperdine comes in off 4 SU losses, but look closely. Three of those four games were to Gonzaga, St. Mary's, and Portland. Those teams happpen to be leading the entire conference. Their fourth loss was to the team they are playing today, San Francisco. Some people will say "look, they just beat them and covered against them, so easy money right" . Wrong. That just means value is on Pepperdine now in this right-back revenge situation.
TAKE PEPPERDINE +5

 

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Adding---------7:00PM-------Morehead State +4.5-----I'm sure a large chunk of the public will be on Tenn-Martin, but I disagree. Morehead State plays with right-back revenge after losing to Tenn-Martin in their final regular season game. It should be noted that Morehead State beat Tenn-Martin earlier in the year by nine and they finished the regular season with 4 striaght losses, but all were on the road. Tenn-Martin is 14-4, but Morehead State is a solid 12-6. Tenn-Martin likes to dominate the glass, but Morehead State is just as good if not better. Thus, Morehead State can take away or at the very least, minimize the strength of Tenn-Martin.
TAKE MOREHEAD STATE +4.5

 

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Adding---------6:00PM------Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3.5-----Both these teams split during the regular season, but here I like Wisc-Milwaukee. Both teams have a tendency to struggle on offense which will result in lots of rebound attempts. Wisc-Milwaukee leads the Horizon in rebounding and they should be to take advantage of the situation. Furthermore, I think Wisc-Milwaukee will make adjustments since they just played at Wright State on February 26th.
TAKE Wisconsin-Milwaukee +3.5

 

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2-3 ATS for the day and now 40-37 YTD-----I'm still puzzled by the Creighton game---that was the difference from a winning day and a losing day----back tommorow for a 7 game card