5-0 ATS this week earns me some or all of $1,300...need your best plays!

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I'm in a ATS pool with 50 people, with 5-0 ATS each week putting you in the money. Nobody hit 5-0 ATS the first two weeks, so the pot has carried over twice, and is just shy of $1,300, and I could reeeeeeeally use the extra cash.

A big advantage is that the pool organizer goes by the opening lines, which gives me 2-3 days to study line movement, enabling me to gain anywhere between from 1-4 points movement advantage. The biggest line move this week is CINCINNATI opening at +2.5, now at -1. The game is just waaaaay to good to be true, and wreaks of trap. I did hear that Oregon State's starting RB sat out of practice due to a minor ankle injury. Since this line seems too good to be true, I have not thrown it into my final 5. Yet.

Here is who I do have:

KENTUCKY -10.5 (3 point movement)
KANSAS -20.5 (2 point movement)
UCLA -10.5 (2 point movement)

So let's hear your "take out a third mortgage/empty your kid's college fund" ATS play of the week, and your reason(s) why...


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2 plays I really like are Bowling Green -3 and Pittsburgh -7. I also like the Cincy play but I understand the hesitation. Good luck this week
 

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2 plays I really like are Bowling Green -3 and Pittsburgh -7. I also like the Cincy play but I understand the hesitation. Good luck this week

Bowling Green reeks of a team that will be a money burner as a road favorite.
 

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Staying away from Bowling Green as a road Fave at Marshall.

Anybody have an opinion of SMU at horrible Washington State?

What about A&M and Utah State? I know A&M can put up points, but Utah State has a tendency to cover as a dog a lot....

Keep 'em coming fellas...
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Staying away from Bowling Green as a road Fave at Marshall.

Anybody have an opinion of SMU at horrible Washington State?

What about A&M and Utah State? I know A&M can put up points, but Utah State has a tendency to cover as a dog a lot....

Keep 'em coming fellas...
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Posted this in another forum. A&M can put up points sometimes. They dont cover a lot.
I just wanted to throw out some stats for you on the NM games... of course the better is bolded.

Texas A&M
Total Yards - 606
Yards Per Pass - 8.4
Yards Per Rush - 5.2
Turnovers - 0

Total Defense - 231
Yards Per Pass - 5.3
Yards Per Rush - 0.9
Forced Turnovers - 2

Tulsa
Total Yards - 489
Yards Per Pass - 9.4
Yards Per Rush - 3.4
Turnovers - 1

Total Defense - 171
Yards Per Pass - 3.9
Yards Per Rush - 2.2
Forced Turnovers - 4

I liked this game until i saw the line... Im just not so sure that i can trust A&M putting up more than 3 scores on any team. Especially without utilizing Tannehill. A&M had 14 penalties for 143 yards that game! A&M still has a very young team. 15 of 18 true freshman played before the first half. A&M's pass defense still seems terrible, even against nm, but the good news it seems like utah state seems like they would rather run than pass. Up to 19 at my book.

I agree with you, for whatever reason utah state is able to cover big lines, however... first year head coach, new offense, imo there are games with much better value. by the way, i didnt think they would cover against NM 2 weeks ago so i hit the under. Also im a big A&M fan. gl
 

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Penn St./Temple...56-7 type game perhaps? Don't know much about Temple...

Army covers 7.5 over suck ass Ball State...right?

Decided to go with Cincy getting 2.5. Just need one more solid value play. Where my peeps at?
 

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find the five largest point movers based on opening lines, and go opposite.
 

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Bowling Green reeks of a team that will be a money burner as a road favorite.

Hope your wrong...as BG was the first play I circled and locked up. I mean...they'll have to really lay down to fall to Marshall in this one the way I see it.
 

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Hope your wrong...as BG was the first play I circled and locked up. I mean...they'll have to really lay down to fall to Marshall in this one the way I see it.

Not really. Bowling Green can't be that good. If they were really a legit team, i doubt vegas would have made them a 7-point home dog to a Sun Belt team, and a three touchdown dog to a rebuilding Mizzou team in a letdown spot. Classic case of an auto fade against a team that is normally a dog going on the road and taking on the role of a favorite.
 

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I love Middle Tennessee State +6 or even more if it's +7 from the opening line.
How about Oklahoma -13.5 or -14? The line is up to 18.
 

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I love Middle Tennessee State +6 or even more if it's +7 from the opening line.
How about Oklahoma -13.5 or -14? The line is up to 18.

I like MTSU too, but on the road at Maryland after beating a bad Memphis team doesn't have me sold. If they were at home and MTSU was +3, I'd light it up.

Not sold on Oklahoma either with Capt. Mustache running the show, and I love how Tulsa can score points. I think Tulsa jumps out to an early lead with OK coming back to win. Tulsa covers.
 

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Not really. Bowling Green can't be that good. If they were really a legit team, i doubt vegas would have made them a 7-point home dog to a Sun Belt team, and a three touchdown dog to a rebuilding Mizzou team in a letdown spot. Classic case of an auto fade against a team that is normally a dog going on the road and taking on the role of a favorite.

Not often a MAC team with a coaching change is going to open the season as a favorite against a Conference favorite...even if it is Troy. Not to mention Mizzu was obviously a bit overvalued after thumping an Illinois team that is obviously going to struggle without OC Mike Locksley. Maybe the Falcons have been playing above their heads these first few weeks but I'm going to hope it lasts another week.

GL with your picks this weekend
 

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Is Louisville really that bad???

2 of Syracuse's 10 wins in four years under Greg Robinson were against Louisville...that should tell you a little bit about where their program is headed. :laugh:

Seems like Card fans are even starting to hope they drop this game in hopes that Kragthorpe is finally booted...
 

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Texas Tech +17.5 is free money, that game will be decided by 7-10 pts at best and Tech has a real chance to win it again straight up.
 

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