| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 27 | 29 | 0.00 | +8.10 |
| Season to Date | 102 | 114 | 0.00 | +27.05 |
All plays are 2 units with the exception of PHILLY/Ari over 5½. which is 2.08 units to win 2
Buffalo +240 over CALGARY
OT included. If you’ve been following this section this season than you’re surely aware of our support for the Flames. Thing is, that support has come mostly when the Flames were taking back a price. As an underdog, these hard-working and talented Flames have had nothing but value in so many games but as a favorite in this price range with Jonas Hiller in goal (confirmed), Calgary is a HUGE risk. Hiller has had some nice games this season but he’s also had some absolutely brutal ones and that’s why he was backing up both Kari Ramo and recent call-up Joni Ortio for portions of the season. Hiller came on in relief of Ortio in Calgary’s 6-3 loss to Anaheim before the break but in three of his last four starts he posted save percentages of .829, .779 and .850. Additionally, Calgary returns home from a five-game trip and they have Minnesota and Edmonton on deck, which are much more important games than this one. On that five game trip, Calgary went 4-1 but don’t get misled by it, as they were held to 25 shots on net or fewer in every victory. That’s nothing but pure, unsustainable “puck luck”.
Give a young team that has dropped 11 in a row a week off to rejuvenate and to forget about the past and chances are they’ll come back with some renewed energy. We also like the fact that the Sabres scored seven goals before the break in two games combined against Philadelphia and Detroit. In fact, they had a 3-0 lead over the Red Wings before losing, 6-4. Those are good signs of a team that is on the verge of snapping out of it. Buffalo is going to win some games in the second half so the key would be trying to catch them at the right time in the right spot. This is definitely a “trouble” spot for the Flames in a game they could easily get caught sleepwalking through. The real key here is fading Jonas Hiller in goal at this price, which is a wager we would make 100% of the time. The last team to play the Sabres and not come away with at least one point? The Calgary Flames. Don't be surprised if it happens again.
Colorado +160 over NASHVILLE
OT included. This is strictly a play against Predators goaltender Carter Hutton. If Pekka Rinne were healthy the Preds would be the exact same price as they are with Hutton in net and that’s a weakness in the market that we must try and take advantage of. Hutton is a 30-year-old career minor-leaguer that comes in with a save % of .897. It’s been proven over and over that goaltending is the #1 factor in determining the outcome in a high majority of games and if the market doesn’t adjust to that simple fact, we’re happy to use that edge in our favor. It’s no coincidence that the Preds are 1-2 since Pekka Rinne went down with an injury. Nashville’s only win over its last three games occurred against Washington in a game they trailed in late in the third period. Subsequently, the Preds lost two in a row to Detroit and Montreal while being outscored 7-3 in those two games.
Colorado is coming off a 3-2 OT victory against the then scorching hot Bruins. The Avs have picked up points in seven of their past nine games and over that span they scored 18 goals in five victories. Colorado played Tampa Bay, St. Louis and Boston in three successive games before the break. They defeated Boston, they outshot the Bolts in Tampa 42-31 and lost in OT and they also lost in St. Louis by a score of 3-1. Against Boston and Tampa, Colorado outshot that pair by a combined count of 78-45. Colorado’s only two regulation losses in its last nine games came against the Caps (2-1) and the aforementioned game in St. Louis. A close look reveals that the Avs are actually playing their best hockey of the year and they offer up some pretty sweet value here against a weak goaltender that has one victory this season.
COLUMBUS +138 over Washington
OT included. Speaking of overrated and overvalued teams and one need not look further than these Capitals. When Braden Holtby was hot, the Caps went on a serious run but when he was average at the start of the year, Washington had trouble winning. Well, Holtby has cooled off and the result has been three losses in a row for the Caps while allowing four goals or more in each loss. That’s includes a 5-4 loss to Edmonton in which they blew a 4-2, third period lead. Another troubling sign for the Capitals is the number of penalties they are taking recently. That’s a sign of a team that is getting pressured in its own end too frequently. Washington has taken 15 minors over its past three games, which is the NHL’s worst mark over the final three games before the break. The Caps rank 22nd in the league in 5-on-5 goals for and they rank 26th in the league in the fewest time spent in the offensive end. The Caps have been getting it done with smoke and mirrors and some hot goaltending. The Caps are the most overpriced team on today’s NHL board.
The Jackets won two of three games prior to the break. They defeated both Boston and Minnesota both on the road before losing to Winnipeg at the MTS Center. The Jackets have been banged up all season. Those injuries took a major toll on them, which resulted in their very poor start. Have we not seen this movie before? It seems every year the Jackets have a lousy first half and follow it up with one of the best second halves among all teams. By the end of the season, and as a result of that strong second half, expectations are high going into the next season. Then it repeats itself. What we know for sure is that the Jackets can go nose to nose and then some against these Capitals on Washington’s best day. Other than goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky being out, Columbus is relatively healthy with every other key body back in the lineup. Curtis McElhinney gets the call in net and he’s very capable of a strong game. Based on value alone, the Jackets are truly a must play here.
PHILADELPHIA/Arizona over 5½ -104
Ray Emery versus Mike Smith has the same over/under total as Jaroslav Halak/Henrik Lundqvist and many others, which is another example of the market not making adjustments to goaltenders. Having these two stiffs in the same range as others is like a pitching matchup of Kevin Correia against John Danks with a total of 7. Win or lose, we must try and take advantage of this soft and very beatable number. We all know the Flyers can score goals quickly and in bunches. Philadelphia’s last three games saw scores of 4-3, 7-4 and 3-2. That 4-3 game was against the Sabres while the 7-4 loss was against the Islanders. The other game was a 3-2 victory over Pittsburgh in a game that featured 75 shots on net combined and 12 power-plays. Play that same game over 100 times and it goes over 5½ in 99 of them. Ray Emery has a save % of .890 and on most nights he makes Anders Lindback look like Bernie Parent.
Meanwhile, Mike Smith isn’t much better than Emery or anyone else for that matter. Smith is good for one or two good games a month. If this is one of them, so be it but the more likely scenario is that the Flyers score four, five or more. Arizona is at or near the bottom in every defensive and goaltending category, which includes being the 4th worst team in shots on net allowed. The Coyotes 107 goals against in 5-on-5 play is ahead of only Buffalo, Toronto and Edmonton. The Coyotes have allowed 20 goals against in their past five games and there’s nothing suggesting a dramatic turnaround against this offensively oriented host. On the other side of that coin is the ‘Yotes offense but we’re not asking much from them. If the Yotes, score two or more, we’re cashing this ticket. If they score one or less, we still might cash it.
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