| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.10 |
| Last 30 Days | 11 | 17 | 0.00 | -7.96 |
| Season to Date | 11 | 17 | 0.00 | -7.96 |
All plays are for 2 units
New Jersey +150 over OTTAWA
OT included. The Senators have played two home games thus far. They are 0-2 in those games and while losing to Montreal is not a big deal, the fact that the Sens were outshot 34-21 is. Ottawa deserved a better fate in its last home game against the Preds but they still lost in OT. The Sens three wins have occurred against Toronto, Columbus and Buffalo and they probably didn’t deserve to win any of them. The Sens 7-3 victory over Columbus was a direct result of Sergei Bobrovsky not being able to stop a puck. The Sens were outshot 41-27 in Columbus, they were outshot 27-21 in Buffalo and they were outshot 41-33 by the Maple Leafs. Ottawa is among the worst puck possession teams in the league and they’re dead last in shots against per game. In no way can Ottawa be trusted in this price range against anyone.
The Devils have played two road games thus far. On Sunday they defeated the Rangers at Madison Square Gardens and in Washington they lost to the Caps, 5-3. That loss to Washington was tied 2-2 going to the third period. The Devils are not an easy out. They can frustrate teams with their “trap” style of play. They’ll wait it out for as long as it takes and they’re good at it. They’re also getting outstanding goaltending from Cory Schneider. In summarizing, the Devils have not looked a bit out of place in games against the Jets, Rangers, Caps, Preds, Sharks or Coyotes. They were in all those games with a chance to win each one. The Senators are 0-3 against top 16 teams with wins over Toronto, Columbus and Buffalo and continue to give up more scoring chances than any team in the NHL. Lastly, Andrew Hammond makes his season debut for the Senators but he has an impossible act to follow -- his own.
Washington -101 over VANCOUVER
OT included. We’re not going to break this down much because it doesn’t need much of an explanation. Vancouver is a team that is going to have to fight for every point they earn this season while the Caps are a team that will only give away points when they show up unprepared or in a bad scheduling spot. In other words, this isn’t a fair fight.
Vancouver is the only team this season to lose to Calgary. The Canucks have one PP goal in 22 chances and while we like a lot of things about their game (hard work, staying out of the box, forwards making a big effort defensively), this is still a team with plenty of holes that will not outclass many this season. They may outwork some but the only way they’ll defeat elite teams like Washington is when said teams are flat.
Have you seen a more complete team than the Caps in the early going? We haven’t. Washington has outscored its last three opponents, 14-3. They have allowed 19 shots against in two straight games. The Caps top two lines are relentlessly creating scoring opportunities constantly. If and when the opposition manages to clear the puck, Washington’s outstanding defense sends it back the other way. The Caps have scored four or more in every game with the exception of one, which occurred in the Alex Ovechkin punishment (he didn’t play because he slept in) game. The Caps are not priced higher because they have not played a strong group of teams yet. They have one notable win against Chicago (4-1) and one notable loss against San Jose (5-0). We’re still getting the Caps at a bargain so we’ll keep riding them until that changes.
Florida +140 over CHICAGO
OT included. The prices on the Panthers remain inflated and so we’ll just keep on playing them until the market adjusts. Florida is coming off a 3-2 OT loss in Pittsburgh. After the first period in which they were outshot 14-4, the Panthers kept on coming and outshot the Pens 27-17 the rest of the way. Down 1-0 in the third, Florida apparently tied it up but the call was amazingly overturned by Toronto. Even the Penguins TV announcers couldn’t believe it was overturned. Anyway, Pittsburgh would score less than a minute later to make it 2-0 but the Panthers didn’t allow that to take the air out their balloon. They would tie it up and send the game into OT before a penalty did them in. That was a character building loss. The Panthers are 3-3 but they’re still undervalued because the three teams they defeated were all non-playoff teams for a year ago. They do not have a notable win yet but they’ll be plenty of those sooner rather than later. This is a quality squad with elite parts that has nothing but profit potential.
Chicago has the same record as the Panthers (3-3). Chicago’s three wins have occurred against Columbus and the Islanders (twice). One of those victories against the Isles occurred in OT. However, in their three losses against Philadelphia, Washington and the Rangers, the Blackhawks scored three goals combined. They also lose the 22-24 minutes that Duncan Keith plays every night. We’re not suggesting that the Blackhawks are weak. That would be preposterous. However, they’re coming off a Stanley Cup win and a turbulent off-season with several players moving out and the Patrick Kane fiasco. There is almost always a championship hangover and it could last a couple of months or more. The elite players on this team have nothing to prove right now while the opposition gets completely jacked up to face them. That doesn’t mean the Panthers will win but we’re not in the business of predicting winners. We’re in the business of finding value and letting the chips fall where they may. There is no question where the value lies in this one.
Los Angeles -105 over SAN JOSE
OT included. We have our reservations about the Kings because of a lack of scoring and some poor performances by Jonathan Quick but the advanced stats say not to worry. The Kings have scored two goals or fewer in each of their five games so far. That’s a combined total of six goals in five games. However, the Kings' Corsi for numbers are off the charts with a 62.3% mark, which ranks first in the league ahead of second, third and fourth place teams, Washington (56.7%), St. Louis (53.6%) and Dallas (52.9%). What that reveals is that L.A.’s puck possession numbers are elite. They are spending more time in the offensive end that any team in the league and they’re creating chances. It’s only a matter of time before that puck starts finding the back of the net.
On opening night in Los Angeles, the Sharks were the visiting team and completely dominated the Kings in a 5-1 victory. We assure you that the Kings will be sharper here. Coach Darryl Sutter called the performance “embarrassing”. The Sharkies got off to a terrific start but the flame that ignited them has been flickering lately. San Jose was soundly outplayed on Sunday at Madison Square and they were whacked on Friday too in New York against the Islanders. The Sharks now return home from a four-game road trip and just might be getting a little too much credit here. On opening night in Los Angeles, the Kings were a -160 favorite over San Jose. Despite this one being played at the Shark Tank, it’s actually a more favorable spot for the Kings and now we get them at a fraction of the price.
