| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 29 | 28 | 0.00 | +16.19 |
| Season to Date | 91 | 107 | 0.00 | +13.71 |
Minnesota and Calgary are 2.04 units and 2.1 units respectively to win 2. Two others are for 2 units.
Minnesota -½ -102 over BUFFALO
Regulation only. If you watched Chicago defeat Minnesota on Sunday you may have heard Jeremy Roenick during the intermission suggesting that it was time for the Wild to move on from Mike Yeo. Roenick went on to say how a coaching change in Minnesota was desperately needed. Jeremy Roenick is an idiot. It’s actually incredible that a guy that played as long as Roenick did could suggest something that idiotic. Anyone with a brain knows the only reason the Wild have been losing so much is because their goaltending is disgustingly putrid every night. There isn’t a damn thing Yeo could do about two or three goaltenders that are seeing quarters and not pucks. Furthermore, those soft goals have a domino effect. The entire team gets demoralized after working so hard and receiving nothing in return. It’s demoralizing to work your ass off, score a goal to go ahead 1-0 and one shot on net later and it’s tied 1-1. 5 shots on net after that you’re down by two goals. Yeo isn’t a good coach, he’s a great coach. The Wild play an outstanding brand of hockey that allows the opposition very few scoring chances while creating many. Minnesota is a top-3 team in several advanced stats categories and while Devan Dubnyk is not Pekka Rinne, he’s still a huge upgrade from those other stiffs that the Wild employ. When Minnesota gets decent goaltending, they win. They came within a whisker of knocking the Blackhawks out of last year’s playoffs when Darcy Keumper played adequate goal and this year’s team, aside from goaltending, is better. For these Wild players, seeing Dubnyk in goal when they take the ice is going to be the prettiest sight they’ve seen this year and we can almost guarantee a rejuvenation of sorts. Minnesota will not only be jacked up about their new goaltender, they’ll also be jacked up to get to the rink for the first time in a long time.
Then there’s value. The Sabres were taking back prices at home of +175 against Montreal, +195 against San Jose, +185 against Detroit, etc. Because Minnesota has lost so many games recently, the Wild are just -158. Once again the market does not recognize the significance of goaltending because if it did, Minnesota would be at least be the same price of -195 that the San Jose Sharks were when they came in here. The Sabres have scored one goal or less in six of their past eight games and two or less in all eight of those. They’ll now face one of the better defensive teams in the league that isn’t considered as such because their goaltending has been so bad. We’re insisting that Minnesota should be at least -½ -130 or 2-1 on the money line with Dubnyk in net and therefore we strongly recommend a play here. There’s more value on the Wild because Ryan Suter has been suspended but we couldn’t care less, as this entire group figures to dig down deep here to not only get things headed back in the right direction but also in support of their new goaltender. A loss to Buffalo would be about the worst case scenario for Minnesota after dealing for Dubnyk yesterday. Several Wild players having former ties to the Sabres (Vanek and Pominville for instance), and they too, figure to give it a little extra.
Calgary -105 over ARIZONA
OT included. There are plenty of reasons to back the Flames here and we’ll start with Mike Smith being in net for Arizona. Smith is good for one decent game every 10 starts and he had that one decent game two starts ago against the Jets when he kicked aside 34 of 35 shots. In typical Mike Smith fashion, he followed that up by allowing five goals to the Senators on 33 shots (.848 save %). Smith is 7-17-2. He has posted save percentages of .848, .846, .885, .636, .868, .889, .850 and .826 in eight of his past nine starts. Mike Smith makes Niklas Backstrom look like Gerry Cheevers. Furthermore, the Coyotes have been home for five straight games or since January 3. They have had one road game since Jan. 27 and have played seven their past eight games in Phoenix. After this game, the Coyotes do not play at home again until February 5 and so they’ll play their next eight straight on the road. There is preparation and anticipation for such a long trip and so the Coyotes do not figure to be at their best here in anticipation of being on the road for so long. Even at their very best the ‘Yotes are a good fade with Smith in net.
Regular readers know we have been strong supporters of the Flames all season up until the time when they started losing frequently but we can see the Flames getting back on the rails. They called up Joni Ortio and the kid delivered a tremendous performance in a 1-0 victory in Vancouver. That gives him and the entire squad renewed confidence. The Flames have had four full days off since that victory so they figure to bring much energy to this game. Calgary is also healthier now than they’ve been in quite some time with both Joe Colborne and Mikael Backland back in the lineup. Backlund is a tremendous talent that only adds more depth and production to an already strong group of centers. The Flames seldom get outworked and in this favorable spot, we’re happy to be spotting this cheap price.
Winnipeg +113 over DALLAS
OT included. We’ll continue to attack weak goaltending because it is the #1 factor in determining the outcome of the majority of games. Once again the market has not considered the goaltending matchup and that’s an advantage we must try to take advantage of. Anders Lindback gets the call for the Stars in goal here. Lindback is in the same class as Niklas Backstrom and Mike Smith, only he might be worse than that pair. Lindback has posted save percentages of .800, .894, .778, .857, .786 and .850 in six of his last seven starts. He has the NHL’s worst goals against average at 4.03 and the worst save percentage at .871. His last two victories were both in relief of Kari Lehtonen but as a starter with Dallas this season, Lindback is 0-6 with a GAA of 4.94 and save percentage of .822. The Stars have dropped four of their past five games and over that stretch they have allowed 20 goals against. Against top-16 teams, the Stars have a measly seven wins in 21 games.
The Jets have picked up points in three straight with two victories and an OT loss to Los Angeles. That coincides with the return of Evander Kane and three of their top four defensemen. Offensively, the Jets have caught fire with four goals or more in each of their past three games against L.A., Anaheim and Florida. There’s a great chance of them going off for another four or more here against Lindback and this poor defense. When you have a goaltender (Michael Hutchinson) that rarely gives up more than two goals against a goaltender that almost always surrenders four or more, well, it’s not rocket science to where the value lies in this one. Hutchinson is not confirmed yet but regardless of whether Andrej Pavelec starts or sits, we’re still playing the Jets.
Vancouver -½ +122 over PHILADELPHIA
Regulation only. Extremely difficult assignment for the Flyers here. Philadelphia played in Washington last night and lost 1-0 after firing away just 21 shots on net. The Flyers have registered 25 shots on net or fewer in three straight and in five of its past seven games. The Flyers will now play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. Playing on zero rest, Philadelphia is 1-6 this season with five of those losses occurring in regulation. They are also forced to use Ray Emery after rookie call-up Rob Zepp played last night. Emery’s save percentage in his last two starts was .769 and .700 respectively. In his 15 appearances this season, Emery has posted a save percentage of .880 or less in eight of them. There’s a reason that Emery has been on five different teams since 2008 and it’s not because he’s good. Right now, he looks slower and older than ever.
Vancouver has dropped three straight to Florida, Calgary and Nashville, however, they outshot all three. That tells us they are on the verge of snapping out of this modest funk. The Canucks also own a better on the road than they do at home. Vancouver played on Tuesday and playing on one day rest they have compiled a 14-7 record. Prior to those three aforementioned losses, the Canucks defeated Detroit and the Islanders in back-to-back games and they now take a significant drop in class here. It wouldn't surprise us if the Canucks looked sharp and the Flyers dull over the entire 60 minutes. Vancouver can play tremendous hockey once it gets cranked up and the goaltending mismatch in our favor serves as the icing on the cake.
