0-1-1 (-5.5 u)
**** Utep/Hawaii Over 34 (1st half) ****
Not sure if you all have the option to play first half totals. I can bet this one, hope you can, too. (Important note: I plan to play the "Under" on the entire game if it goes up to 68 or higher so I can try to go for 2-0. Hoping if the game ends up 31-10 first half, I can hope Hawaii has a scoring lapse, which they should according to the trend, and end up going under for the game total. If I lose the first half, I doubt they will score much in the second half cause Hawaii is a first half team, so I'll go 1-1. I very doubt I'll go 0-2 unless something totally off the trend happens. Again, most likely 1-1, but if you only compare 2-0 or 0-2, it's much more likely I'll go 2-0 instead of 0-2.)
Okay, now for the analysis:
Why the first half play? Check this out.....
*6 of the 7 Hawaii games this season hit 34 or over in the first half.
*3 of the 4 Hawaii road games went over 34 total.
*3 of the 3 Hawaii Home games hit or went over 34 total.
Hawaii is at home in this game!!
Is that enough for me to play this one? No way, we need more proof, lets look at it deeper......
You might be asking, what about playing the over for the entire game? On the outside that might look good, but in every Home game this season, Hawaii has scored more points in the first half than they have in the second half. Not only that, but even their opponents score more in the first half.
Hawaii (home games):
App st 10 (second half, they only score 7)
Hawaii 24 (second half, they only score 16)
First half total = 34 second half = 23
Rice 21 (second half, they only score 0)
Hawaii 24 (second half, they only score 17)
First half total = 45 second half = 17
Fresno st 14 (second half, they only score 14)
Hawaii 38 (second half, they only score 17)
First half total=52 second half = 31
So as you can see, the first half total is much stronger than the entire game total.
Hawaii (away games) first hf total pts:
Hawaii vs usc = 37
Hawaii vs unlv = 38
Hawaii vs tulsa = 26
Hawaii vs louis tech = 41
According to the trends above, the books should have made the total higher, however, the reason it isn't, is because most of the totals for utep games in the first half haven't hit 34, however, I feel it is mostly due to the fact that they played teams that don't have the offensive punch like Hawaii does, look below:
Lets look at Utep (away games):
Arizona scored 35 pts in the first half against Utep. (utep 0) = total 35
Louisville scored 24 pts in the first half against utep. (utep 7) = 31
Smu scored only 9 pts in the first half against utep. (Utep 14) = 23
Lets look at utep (home games):
3 of the 4 homes games did not go over 34 pts in the first half. However, the 3 games that did not go over the total was against teams not as offensively potent as Hawaii. The only team with a potent offensive was against Louis tech, which was the game that did go over in the first half (48 total pts in the first half).
Concern or not:
So this pick may look risky cause utep might not put up it's share of points. However, I still feel this play is strong, because one shouldn't just go by stats, but also how good their opponents were.
Lets look at more than just stats:
I'm going to focus more on the stats of Hawaii at home, and more on the stats of Utep on the road, since this game will be like that. Hawaii scored 24 against app st and rice, and a whopping 38 against Fresno st. in the first half. They should have scored even more points than that, because if you look deep into those games:
Hawaii did not have QB Timmy Chang against app st(appalachian st div2 school),
Hawaii did not have Wr/slot Chad Owens against Rice,
Hawaii did not have Wr Jeremiah Cocherin against Fresno st.
Conclusion/thoughts:
Hawaii will have Chang, Owens, and Cocherin against Utep, it's top 3 offensive weapons, for this game. These 3 players will be playing professional football in the future. Not only that, Hawaii is the most potent offense utep will play so far this season. Just to give more insight on how horrible Utep's defense is, look at the smu game, Smu never scored over 14 pts in any games this season, except when they played Utep. And on top of that, Hawaii has allowed every opponent they played this year to score atleast 10 pts in the first half. Even division 2 App st and horrible Rice scored atleast 10 pts at Hawaii in the first half.
**** Utep/Hawaii Over 34 (1st half) ****
Not sure if you all have the option to play first half totals. I can bet this one, hope you can, too. (Important note: I plan to play the "Under" on the entire game if it goes up to 68 or higher so I can try to go for 2-0. Hoping if the game ends up 31-10 first half, I can hope Hawaii has a scoring lapse, which they should according to the trend, and end up going under for the game total. If I lose the first half, I doubt they will score much in the second half cause Hawaii is a first half team, so I'll go 1-1. I very doubt I'll go 0-2 unless something totally off the trend happens. Again, most likely 1-1, but if you only compare 2-0 or 0-2, it's much more likely I'll go 2-0 instead of 0-2.)
Okay, now for the analysis:
Why the first half play? Check this out.....
*6 of the 7 Hawaii games this season hit 34 or over in the first half.
*3 of the 4 Hawaii road games went over 34 total.
*3 of the 3 Hawaii Home games hit or went over 34 total.
Hawaii is at home in this game!!
Is that enough for me to play this one? No way, we need more proof, lets look at it deeper......
You might be asking, what about playing the over for the entire game? On the outside that might look good, but in every Home game this season, Hawaii has scored more points in the first half than they have in the second half. Not only that, but even their opponents score more in the first half.
Hawaii (home games):
App st 10 (second half, they only score 7)
Hawaii 24 (second half, they only score 16)
First half total = 34 second half = 23
Rice 21 (second half, they only score 0)
Hawaii 24 (second half, they only score 17)
First half total = 45 second half = 17
Fresno st 14 (second half, they only score 14)
Hawaii 38 (second half, they only score 17)
First half total=52 second half = 31
So as you can see, the first half total is much stronger than the entire game total.
Hawaii (away games) first hf total pts:
Hawaii vs usc = 37
Hawaii vs unlv = 38
Hawaii vs tulsa = 26
Hawaii vs louis tech = 41
According to the trends above, the books should have made the total higher, however, the reason it isn't, is because most of the totals for utep games in the first half haven't hit 34, however, I feel it is mostly due to the fact that they played teams that don't have the offensive punch like Hawaii does, look below:
Lets look at Utep (away games):
Arizona scored 35 pts in the first half against Utep. (utep 0) = total 35
Louisville scored 24 pts in the first half against utep. (utep 7) = 31
Smu scored only 9 pts in the first half against utep. (Utep 14) = 23
Lets look at utep (home games):
3 of the 4 homes games did not go over 34 pts in the first half. However, the 3 games that did not go over the total was against teams not as offensively potent as Hawaii. The only team with a potent offensive was against Louis tech, which was the game that did go over in the first half (48 total pts in the first half).
Concern or not:
So this pick may look risky cause utep might not put up it's share of points. However, I still feel this play is strong, because one shouldn't just go by stats, but also how good their opponents were.
Lets look at more than just stats:
I'm going to focus more on the stats of Hawaii at home, and more on the stats of Utep on the road, since this game will be like that. Hawaii scored 24 against app st and rice, and a whopping 38 against Fresno st. in the first half. They should have scored even more points than that, because if you look deep into those games:
Hawaii did not have QB Timmy Chang against app st(appalachian st div2 school),
Hawaii did not have Wr/slot Chad Owens against Rice,
Hawaii did not have Wr Jeremiah Cocherin against Fresno st.
Conclusion/thoughts:
Hawaii will have Chang, Owens, and Cocherin against Utep, it's top 3 offensive weapons, for this game. These 3 players will be playing professional football in the future. Not only that, Hawaii is the most potent offense utep will play so far this season. Just to give more insight on how horrible Utep's defense is, look at the smu game, Smu never scored over 14 pts in any games this season, except when they played Utep. And on top of that, Hawaii has allowed every opponent they played this year to score atleast 10 pts in the first half. Even division 2 App st and horrible Rice scored atleast 10 pts at Hawaii in the first half.
