3rd *Biggest Bet of Year* Play (Louisiana Tech -2)

[glennlovecolleen3]

*Biggest Bet of Year* Plays: 1-1 (-0.5 u)

**** Louisiana Tech -2 (over utep) **** (5u)

Easy win on FSU last week, now let's get back on the plus side overall!!! This game just jumped out at me as soon as I saw it!!! Louis Tech is only giving 2 points at home!?!??! ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!?!? Are the books dumb?!?! No, they are very smart and I figure the books had to give Utep a lot of respect because they won on the road against Fresno st and blew out Hawaii at home. The books are assuming we are going to fall for this Utep hype, BUT WE'RE NOT FALLING FOR IT!! This line is based on perception, isn't everything though?. heh heh! Utep's last two wins were not impressive. Fresno st has turned out to be jokes and Hawaii is a joke on the road. Louis tech is much more battle tested against a tough schedule, and has won the games they're supposed to win. Let's look at this game closer................

MOATS MOATS MOATS!! Utep won't be able to handle MOATS!! One of the best running backs in the country.

Utep allowed Ariz st's top two runners to avg close to 5 ypc(yards per carry).
Allowed Boise st's top two rushers little over 5 ypc.
Allowed New Mex st's top rusher close to 5 ypc.
Allowed Fresno st's top rusher little over 6 ypc (26 carries for 160 yards).
Allowed Hawaii's top two rushers little over 7 ypc.

Moats is head and shoulders above all the backs that Utep has faced this season. If Utep is allowing those other rushers 5 to 7 yards per carry, can you imagine what MOATS will do to Utep?!?! MOATS MOATS MOATS!!!!

Moats ran for...........
257 yards against Nevada (8 ypc) yards per carry.
258 against louis Laffayate (little over 7 ypc).
87 against Miami Fl, but avg 6.2 ypc..
104 against Tennessee, avg 5 ypc.
242 against Fresno st. (little over 7 ypc)
186 against SMU (8 ypc).

Utep doesn't have the defense like you see in big conference schools, this is the wac conference. All I can say is Moats will DESTROY Utep single handidly!!!

Louis tech lost to the teams they suppoed to lose to. Their three losses came to Miami, Tenn, and Auburn. They beat every other team they've faced. Utep will be just another victim on their list. If Louis tech had Boise st's schedule, they might be undefeated and in the top 20, too.

Moats will eating up Utep's defense, eating up chunks of yards, and then after the game, he will be eating steak and potatos to celebrate the win.

MOATS MOATS MOATS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Mjllomb]

Nice write-up. I have been on the UTEP bandwagon for a few weeks, they have made me $$. You have good points, I probably switch sides with you this week..

GL!!

 

[AlwaysKeen]

great analysis...was listening to the second half the La. Tech/ SMU game...Moats rested prety much the whole second half...La. Tech is flying under the public's radar, while UTEP is hyped...gotta say you have the right side here...

 

[Co-Captain]

I Am Already On This One Big Time....lets Cash It!...gl And Aloha Cc.

 

[mhk]

Agreed.. gl..

 

[muffinman]

Love the call Glen.

MOATS,MOATS,MOATS!!!!!!

This kid is AMAZING:aktion033

 

[wahook]

great pick. all aboard.

wahook

 

[UTSUX]

Great Pick.

 

[pops69]

watched every game that la tech has played this year

moats is one of the best back i've ever seen, could be even better than barry sanders, and i've made a bunch of money on both la tech and utep. moats is still limping, and could be a factor on saturday. la tech will never pass on utep like they did last week, my $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ will be on utep and the points just like they were on them against hawaii :drink:

 

[WinOne]

Pops,

What is the status of Moats for this game. With this line being as low as it is, it almost seems as though he will not play. If he does not play, Definate side with UTEP. Hard as heck getting info out of Ruston.

WinOne!!

 

[pops69]

i think he will play, but he went out limping again last week. i doubt that he will be 100% for the entire game.

 

[viking611]

TB Ryan Moats -- He rushed for 186 yards and three touchdowns against SMU despite getting knocked out of the previous game with an ankle injury. He said he wasn't 100 percent, but the coaches who saw his performance don't believe it.

ROSTER REPORT
Tailback Ryan Moats (ankle) is healthy.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Good opinions everyone!!

From what I know, Moats is ready to go. If by some chance he is 80%, he's still better than any back Utep has faced this season, but I expect him to be 100%. Adrenaline will take over and he will be his usual self.

Don't be mistaken, this game isn't all about Moats, here are more reasons to go with Louis tech this weekend:

Utep will try to run......

but they don't have a quality starting back(top back in each game):
61 yds, 3.8 ypc aganst ariz st
162 yds, little over 6 ypc against weber st
65 yds, 3.3 ypc against boise st
100+ yds(can't find exact stat) against New Mex st
54 yds, little over 2 ypc against fresno st
138 yds, close to 5 ypc against hawaii

They have bloated stats for the Weber st and New Mex st games, which is obvious since they were at home and against weak teams. Also at home against Hawaii, who has a horrible run defense, a quality running back would have tacked on 200+ yards. The only two road games Utep played were against Ariz st and Fresno st., which are no surprise they got the least amount of rushing yds by their top running back. Their only true test at home against Boise st, their top rusher only gets 65 yds.

If Utep tries to pass......

Louis Tech in their last 3 games against Mid Major teams, they had 8 INT's.
2 INTs vs. Louis Lafayette
2 INTs vs Fresno st
4 INTs vs SMU

3 of 4 games against mid majors, held their opponent's top receiver to under 100 yards.

Note.........

Louis tech, at home, has not allowed an opponent to score more than 21 pts this season. Louis tech is avg over 30 pts per game at home.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

initially liked La. Tech as well...Moats isn't 100 percent,but will still play...UTEP actually does have a very good RB in Jackson (Senior)...also, strength of UTEP's D seems to be against the run...agree with you about UTEP's interception problem, QB Palmer has to make better decisions...we'll see...

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

initially liked La. Tech as well...Moats isn't 100 percent,but will still play...UTEP actually does have a very good RB in Jackson (Senior)...also, strength of UTEP's D seems to be against the run...agree with you about UTEP's interception problem, QB Palmer has to make better decisions...we'll see...

That's true about Utep's RB Jackson and Utep's D against the run if you took all the teams they've played and compiled all the stats into one, however, dissecting it closer, the reason for Jackson's and the D's stats has a lot to do with them bloating their overall stats, because of the cupcakes they've played against Weber st and New Mex st. If you suddenly take out the stats from those two games, it tells a much different story. Jackson ran for 162 vs weber st and 158 against new mex st, and in both games the defense shut the other team out. These two games were like scrimmage games for utep. Weber st has not won one game this season and new mex st is 2-4.

If you avg out all the other games, Jackson's stats aren't nearly as good. Also without those two games added into their avg, the rest of their opponents avg around 32 points against them.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Here are more info on the game.............

*Louis tech holds a 6-1-1 lead in past games against Utep.
*Utep will be playing for the first time in Ruston, Louis since 1942.
*They faced one another in Shreveport two years ago, with the Bulldogs coming away with a 38-24 triumph.
*Ryan Moats is third in the country in rushing (159.1 ypg), seventh in all-purpose yardage (170.3 ypg) and ninth in scoring (10.3 ppg).
*Junior Matt Kubik, Louisiana Tech's leading passer,has completed 70 of 122 attempts for 1,062 yards and four touchdowns.

Info found at utep athletic site:
http://www.nmnathletics.com/ViewArticle.dbml?SPSID=10301&SPID=635&DB_OEM_ID=2100&ATCLID=79342

More info................

*This is Louis tech's home coming game.

Info found at Louis tech athletic site:
http://www.latechsports.com/article.php?article_id=2004_10_22_16:20:54

 

[Journeyman]

I am on it. thanks

 

[fivedoorsdown]

$$$$$$$cha-ching$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[TigerBait]

UTEP wins outright!

UTakeEmPoints

 

[sphincter]

i see some folks talking stats on different games...without looking at who those stats were compiled against.....


please note.....lou tech has played auburn...tennessee and miami,fla....on the road....and fresno......

blow outs,no doubt.....neither of these teams can compare to miami,tenn and auburn....so if you try and determine stat differential or try and do a comparison,please keep schedule strength in mind....

utep played az st and got drubbed...and their back jackson,as glenn said,compiled all his yardage against garbage defenses like weber,n.m.st. and hawaii....he got 60yds on 19 carries vs boise....54 yds on 21 carries vs fresno.....and 58yds on 16 carries vs az st....

it`s gonna be carson palmer`s little brother passing vs moats running...

moats ran for 180+ last week..in a little more than a half....from what i understand,he was pulled due to the lopsided score as much as anything....

should be a great game....both clubs have been good to me...utep moreso...but,i agree with glenn here...

g.l.