| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.36 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 32 | 0.00 | +2.90 |
| Season to Date | 35 | 53 | 0.00 | -21.82 |
Toronto +126 over NEW JERSEY
OT included. The Maple Leafs played last night and dropped a close 2-1 decision to the red-hot Hurricanes. One could argue that the ‘Canes just produced the blueprint on how to play the Maple Leafs and defeat them but the Devils are not in a favorable position to do that. First, New Jersey returns home from a four-game trip through Dallas, Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose and failed to score more than twice in any of those games. This now marks the 11th straight game in which the Devils have had to travel to play their next opponent over the past 20 days. It started on November 3 with a three-game trip through Florida, Tampa and Carolina before the Devils returned home for one game against Carolina. Up next was a home and home series with the Sabres that started in Buffalo followed by that aforementioned four-game trip. In 12 games against top-16 teams, the Devils are 3-9 and they’re also 1-5 against top-10 teams. Those results reveal that the Devils .500 record has been made possible by defeating the lower echelon teams in the NHL. With rookie D-man Yohann Auvitu on the rack (he's been updated to probable) along with Taylor Hall, Kyle Palmieri and Mike Cammalleri, one really has to wonder where the scoring is going to come from on this already offensively challenged bunch.
Auston Matthews, even with his scoring slump, has been fantastic. Like Connor McDavid, who was on a 10-game scoreless drought, Matthews is about to break out too. Mitch Marner is another rising star who has been Toronto’s best player on the ice on many nights. There might not be enough depth on defense or experience to pull off major upsets consistently but this is not an upset by any stretch and the sheer amount of skill on this roster makes the Leafs a threat every time out. Mike Babcock was not happy after last night’s game, insisting that his players have to want those loose pucks more than the opposition in tight, scrappy, low-scoring games. We trust they got the message and we also trust them for a big effort here.
Pittsburgh +106 over N.Y. RANGERS
OT included. These two met two nights ago in Pittsburgh and the Penguins were a -166 favorite. They now go from that to a dog because of the 5-2 loss and that’s simply incorrect. That game featured Marc Andre Fleury versus Antti Raanta and it was a case of the Rangers getting the superior goaltending. The Penguins absolutely dominated the first period and took a 2-0 lead into the break but the Rangers scored three times in the second and took over from there. Give the Rangers credit for a comeback victory or fault the Penguins for thinking it was going to be a walk in the park after one period. Either way it matters not, as all the value is on the Penguins as a pooch against a team they abused in last year’s playoffs. The personnel on both squads has not changed much since then and while the Rangers appear to be an improved squad, the numbers suggest they’re the same team that has trouble getting out of their own end.
Prior to defeating the Pens on Monday, the Rangers lost to Columbus and Florida. Prior to that, they defeated Vancouver but were outshot 38-25. In their 3-1 win over Edmonton last week, the Rangers were outshot 37-29. The list goes on of games in which the Rangers have been outplayed and out-chanced and ended up winning. Now Mika Zibanejad is down. Pavel Buchnevich is down. Their 12.4 percent even-strength shooting percentage is also a major outlier, so they’re likely in for some serious regression when that lucky number inevitably comes down. Furthermore, Henrik Lundqvist is declining big time but still thinks the NHL couldn’t function without him.
The Penguins haven’t been entirely consistent, but it’s asking a lot for the reigning champs to come out and hit the ground running. Still, when the focus is there, Pittsburgh might still be the best team in the NHL. Already loaded at forward, the Penguins may have another good one in Jake Guentzel, who scored twice in his debut. Again, the Pens wiped out the Rangers in five games in last year’s playoffs while outscoring them, 21-10. That’s the mismatch we expect to see here but more than that is the value, as Pittsburgh was a -166 over New York two days ago and now cannot be a pooch.
Winnipeg +150 over MINNESOTA
OT included. The Wild have dropped two straight to Colorado and Dallas while scoring twice in each contest. Prior to that, Minnesota had a 1-0 loss and a 1-0 victory against Calgary and Boston respectively. Prior to that, the Wild had a 2-1 victory and a 3-2 loss to Ottawa and Philadelphia respectively. That’s six straight games in which Minnesota has scored two goals or less and it’s not like they played some of the league’s defensive juggernauts. Instead, the Wild played some of the NHL’s leakiest squads in Dallas, Philly, Calgary and Colorado. The Wild are a borderline playoff team that relies heavily on their goaltender to win games. When Charlie Coyle is your best player other than your goaltender, you might have some personnel issues. In any event, Minnesota is a HUGE risk at prices like this.
Meanwhile, the Jets have a terrific young roster that is too good to miss the playoffs. They may even be a postseason sleeper. The Jets have been crushed by injuries, an impossible schedule and the distraction that came with the Jacob Trouba holdout, yet they are still on the cusp of being really good. Mark Scheifele is the best unknown hockey player in the NHL. Scheifele is so good that Patrik Laine gets multiple, high quality scoring chances every game. The Jets are big, they’re strong, they’re physical and they’re quick and after a couple of days off, they figure to be a bit more energized than they were in Boston and Carolina over the weekend. We get the far superior team at an inflated price because the market is not aware of how good the Jets are. Hopefully it pays off.
All plays are for 2 units
