| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 2 | 0.00 | -1.82 |
| Last 30 Days | 32 | 38 | 0.00 | +1.28 |
| Season to Date | 138 | 173 | 0.00 | -0.91 |
Buffalo +230 over ANAHEIM
OT included. It is nearly impossible to make a case for the Sabres here and we wouldn’t even try. The Ducks are the greatest show on ice right now and it’s all legit. The Ducks are without question the most balanced offense in the league, they’re sound defensively and they have two legit NHL goaltenders. If there is a more complete team in the NHL or a bigger threat to win the grand prize, we have yet to see them. The Sabres are going to need one or two things to occur for them to come in here and leave victorious. One, the Ducks have to be somewhat flat or uninspired and/or Sabres goaltender Robin Lehner has to be brilliant. What we’re pretty sure of is that we’re going to get a strong effort out of the Sabres because that’s who they are. They have plenty of heart, they play to win and they have a strong collection of underappreciated NHL caliber players. Robin Lehner is also solid with a .928 save percentage.
The Ducks have been absolutely near unbeatable since Christmas to the tune of 20 wins and four losses to virtually lock up a playoff spot but they’re not going to run the table. There are going to be some losses along the way and this is a situational spot where we might catch the Ducks napping. Anaheim just returned from a grueling, seven-game trip. Upon returning, they whacked the Flames, 5-2. That aforementioned trip took them through the East Coast for three games, the Midwest for one game against the Blackhawks and finally to the Canadian West Coast for three more to wrap it up. Anaheim has scored five goals or more in four straight, which is a pace that is impossible to maintain. This is the Ducks second game back after said trip and it’s against an East team that they rarely see. On deck are the gutless Oilers, another easy game that they may not get up for either, although the Oilers are a division rival. On Sunday, however, the Kings come into town and that’s the Ducks biggest threat and biggest rival. Over 82 games it is impossible to maintain high intensity every game. There has to be valleys from time to time and this is the perfect setup for the Ducks to exhale, take a breath and show up in body only. They have to be somewhat exhausted and need to reenergize before the Kings come in on Sunday. If the Ducks are primed to be flat, this would be the day. The Sabres may just pull of a stunner here and we would not be a bit surprised if they did. The Kings are going to get the Ducks best shot but before that, Anaheim is going to get Buffalo's best shot here.
Pittsburgh +104 over BOSTON
OT included. The Penguins and Bruins have met twice this year with Boston winning 6-2 and 3-0. That’s a combined 9-2 that the Bruins have outscored the Pens. The B’s have also beaten the Penguins four straight overall and six of the last seven meetings. Pittsburgh’s only victory during that stretch came in OT. In other words, Boston has picked up 13 out of a possible 14 points against the Penguins over the last seven games. That’s a little insane and at some point the Pens have to take a stand. This is very likely that day because Boston’s extreme puck luck cannot continue.
In Boston’s 3-0 victory over Pittsburgh on December 16th, Pittsburgh won the Corsi For battle 62-60. Pitt won the scoring chances battle, 24-23 with Boston scoring three times on 10 high quality scoring chances, while the Pens scored none on 12 high quality chances. Two days later, Boston beat Pitt, 6-2. In that game, Pitt won the scoring chances battle, 26-14. Boston had six high quality scoring chances and scored six times while Pitt scored twice on 10 high quality chances. Against Columbus on Monday, Boston scored four times but three of those goals were deflected in while the other was a screen shot. Meanwhile, the Jackets scored six times and hit five goal posts. The Jackets won 6-4 but that score probably should have been closer to 9-1. That’s how lucky Boston was. It goes deeper than that too. Since November, Boston’s shooting percentage is 11.25 while the opposition’s shooting percentage against the B’s is 8.71. The Bruins have been on the extreme side of good fortune for far too long but there is still more. When you’re not controlling possession, you give up more shots, and the B’s have given up the fifth-most shot attempts per 60 minutes and the third-most scoring chances, both at 5-on-5, per War on Ice. In February, no team has given up more scoring chances than Boston. Zdeno Chara is the only Bruins defenseman with 30 or more games played who ends more of his shifts in the offensive zone than he starts, per Behind the Net. All of this explains why the Bruins are 12-18 at home and it also explains why they are 20-10 on the road. Boston is 20-10 on the road because of extreme good fortune.
Pittsburgh’s puck possession numbers are vastly superior to the Bruins. The Penguins take fewer penalties than Boston, they surrender fewer goals and chances and they are superior on the penalty kill. What’s interesting is that Pittsburgh has not scored a PP goal in seven straight games. Again, that is another area where luck plays a huge factor. Pittsburgh has too much firepower to be kept off the scoreboard much longer on the power-play. This game may appear to be a fair fight but it’s not. The Bruins defensemen outside of Chara are minor-league caliber. NHL games are often decided by goaltenders but we’ll take our chances with a Pittsburgh team here that is superior to the Bruins and has to be sick of losing to them so often because of bad fortune.
San Jose -½ +118 over COLORADO
Regulation only. The Avalanche may be in over their heads here. Colorado is coming off games against Buffalo, Montreal, Edmonton and Vancouver. A team could get into a lot of bad habits playing that quartet in succession because none of them play as structured or detailed as the Sharks. Colorado now takes a huge step up in class and they’re not very good to begin with. The Avs continue to be an analytics mess. Their Corsi Against of 62.1 shot attempts allowed per game is dead last in the league. The next closest to the Avs is Calgary’s 58.3 while San Jose’s Corsi Against is just 51.3. The Avs have scored two goals or less in 11 of their past 18 games so it’s actually a minor miracle that they have 10 wins over that span. To defeat superior teams a lot has to go right for Colorado but that’s a lot to ask against a team like the Sharks. Colorado has lost five of the last six games against the Sharks. The last game ended up with San Jose winning 6-1. When the Avs did beat San Jose on the 28th of December, Colorado was outshot 38-26 and out-chanced 24-12. There’s a reason why San Jose dominates this squad and it’s because the Sharks play a strict and structured system that is geared towards relentless forechecking and puck possession while the Avs are all over the map with very little structure.
On Peter DoBoer’s watch, the Sharks are thriving. They went into St. Louis on Monday and easily disposed of the then red-hot Blues, 6-3. That was the second time in February that they beat the Blues and they also have recent victories over Chicago and Tampa Bay among others. San Jose has won nine of their last 12 road games with only defeats coming against Carolina, Los Angeles and Anaheim. What those three have in common is that they are all a top-6 possession team while Colorado is at the very bottom of puck possession. This is a possession and structure mismatch in the Sharks favor and if the Avs beat us here, so be it. The key here is win expectation and based on history, puck possession numbers, current form and everything else, the Sharks win expectation in this one single game is extremely high. If both teams show up and the goaltending battle is even, we will be cashing this ticket. If the goaltending battle favors the Avs, we still might cash this ticket.
