| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.86 |
| Last 30 Days | 31 | 28 | 0.00 | +20.73 |
| Season to Date | 101 | 112 | 0.00 | +28.57 |
All play are for 2 units
Calgary +171 over ANAHEIM
OT included. In the world of hockey analytics, the theory is that a team's record in one-goal games is almost entirely unpredictable. This was first established by Gabriel Desjardins of Hockey Prospectus after the 2008-09 season. He ran a regression analysis on every team's data from 1979-80 through 2003-04 and found that the season-to-season correlation of a team's record in one-goal games was almost nonexistent (0.05). The research since 2004 shows the same thing and so did Hockey Abstract’s research in 2013 even when using three-season data samples. Essentially, the ability to win close games comes and goes, which further proves that random, lucky bounces have more to do with it than skill. The Calgary Flames had an awful year a season ago but lost 32 games by one goal. Based on that, it should come as no surprise that they’re having a very good rebound season. Analytics said last year that the Flames were a good team having an unlucky year and things have evened out for them this season. To further prove this, Colorado’s record in one goal games last season was the best in the NHL with a 28-12 record and we all know what is happening to them this year. The unluckiest teams this year are the Kings (5-18 in one goal games), Oilers (7-17) and the Carolina Hurricanes (8-18). That brings us to the lucky teams.
At the top of the list is the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks are an incredible 22-0 in regulation in one goal games. They have six OT losses so their overall record is 22-6 in one goal games. That mark is absolutely, 100% unsustainable. A study was done on each NHL team's set of records from 2009-10 through 2011-12 and found that a team's winning percentage in games decided by two goals or more was far more useful in predicting its future than a team's record in one-goal games. In that regard, the Ducks are 1-3 in two goal games and 7-7 in three goal games. The Ducks are statistically no more likely to win close games down the stretch than most other teams and so the time to fade this club is now. Anaheim’s unparalleled success in one-goal games has them as the most overvalued team in the NHL but if things even out, as they almost always do, there is a ton of profit to be made fading them. The Flames are going with the hot hand of Joni Ortio and we’re happy to be backing them at this sweet price.
Los Angeles +104 over SAN JOSE
OT included. If we’re going to apply the one-goal wins and losses to the Ducks, we can certainly apply that same theory to the Kings. As mentioned, Los Angeles is 5-18 in one goal games, which is a winning percentage of .217. That is the NHL’s worst mark this season in one goal games and it is almost guaranteed to see a huge improvement in the second half. In two goal-games, Los Angeles is 8-2 and in three-goal games, they are 7-6. That’s a combined 15-8 in the more telling record of two and three-goal victories and defeats. L.A. has lost three in a row and six of seven. Five of those six losses were by one goal. The good news is that the Kings outshot the opposition in five of those six losses and have outshot the opposition in 13 of its last 14 games. That includes outshooting the Flames 27-15 Edmonton 39-21 and losing them both. The Kings are winning the battle of puck possession time and shots on goal almost every game, which strongly suggests they are still a great team that is in for a huge second half run. Jonathan Quick has looked much sharper the past two games and if he gets back to his expected form, the Kings are a freight train waiting to happen.
The Sharks are the inferior team here and it’s not even close. Antti Niemi is hit and miss. He can be very good one game and just awful the next. The bottom line is that Niemi is and always has been an average goaltender that we’re happy taking back a tag against. Besides that, San Jose is struggling but unlike the Kings, its struggles are warranted. The Sharks are almost exactly .500 in one-goal, two-goal and three-goal games. Outside of a stretch from November 29 to December 20 in which the Sharks won 9 of 10 games, they have struggled the entire season. Since the run, San Jose has just five wins in 13 games. They are coming off back-to-back losses to New Jersey and Calgary in which they surrendered nine goals against. What we know for sure is that the Sharks are far more beatable than the Kings and that makes taking back this tag an easy choice.
OTTAWA -½ +124 over Toronto
Regulation only. Forget Toronto’s woes for a second and focus on just how good these Senators are playing right now. The results don’t show it because Ottawa has dropped six of eight but four of those losses were by one goal and the Sens have outshot every team they have played in their last seven games. In fact, in its last seven games, Ottawa leads the NHL in scoring chances over that span and its 36.7 shots on goal average over that same span is also the best mark in the league. Ottawa is coming off back-to-back, one goal road losses to Carolina and the Rangers with the latter going into OT. Those are a pair of outstanding defensive teams. Prior to that, Ottawa scored 13 times in three games against weaker defensive teams in Montreal, Dallas and Arizona. They scored at least four times in all three of those games and now will face the NHL’s weakest defense.
The Maple Leafs have lost 13 of 16 and you certainly don’t need us to tell you the extent of their troubles. The Maple Leafs have made headlines across the country because they were booed off the ice in their last game during what is being labeled “jerseygate”. Three fans were charged for throwing their Maple Leafs jerseys onto the ice. Said Captain Dion Phaneuf, “It’s disrespectful”. How dare he say that when Toronto’s play has been so bad for years and especially bad since the day that stiff arrived in Toronto. How dare he use the word disrespectful to the people who pay his salary. Talk about disrespect and one need not look further than the timing of the Maple Leafs firing of Randy Carlyle. That happened on the morning of January 6, when Canada’s juniors won gold the night before. Coincidence? We don’t believe in coincidences. That championship junior game was played at the ACC and instead of letting the juniors have their day in the limelight, the Maple Leafs hijacked the hockey headlines that day with the firing of Carlyle. Everything this franchise does is Mickey Mouse. They are comprised of a bunch of losers that have either been cut, picked up off waivers or traded because nobody else wanted them. Toronto’s collection of former fourth-line players, healthy scratches and rejects also has the worst work ethic in the entire league. When the Maple Leafs were winning games earlier in the year, it was only because Jonathan Bernier was standing on his head every night. Well, Bernier's in a slump. He now has lost four games in a row and six of his past seven. His record has fallen to 16-14-3 and his goals-against average has bloated to 2.76 and his save percentage is average at .914. Toronto can’t wait for this game to end so they can take seven days off to get away from all the scrutiny they’re under right now. Can the Leafs win this game? Of course they can but chances are they’re going to get badly outplayed, outworked and outscored by a hungrier, more talented and more focused Senators club that is actually playing very well right now.
