| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 2 | 2 | 0.00 | +0.52 |
| Last 30 Days | 25 | 34 | 0.00 | -4.36 |
| Season to Date | 124 | 144 | 0.00 | +21.79 |
ALL PLAYS ARE FOR 2 UNITS
Florida -½ +147 over TORONTO
Regulation only. The reason we’re playing the Panthers in regulation is because they have more shootout losses than any team in the NHL. Roberto Luongo has also allowed the most shootout goals in the league and so we would much rather take our chances in regulation. What we know for sure is that the Maple Leafs have a better chance of losing than winning. Toronto played its heart out in Montreal on Saturday night but once again Carey Price stole one. The following day the Maple Leafs moved Cody Franson and center Mike Santorelli in a trade with the Predators. Franson was Toronto’s most stable defenseman and Santorelli had been one of the hardest working forwards on the team that was logging plenty of minutes every game. The move for the Leafs of course was for the future but for the remainder of the year, Toronto’s weak puck-clearing defense, that was the league’s worst to begin with, just got worse. The Leafs offense has also been the league’s worst since the start of January. Toronto has scored two goals or less in 15 of its last 20 games. More players on the Leafs are on the way out, as they begin another rebuild for the 10th time in the past 12 years. Unstable times and very weak in every area, Toronto is an instant fade in this range. Hell, if New Jersey is a 2-1 favorite over Buffalo today, Florida should be a 4-1 favorite over Toronto. Reports this morning are that Oli Jokinen will play with Leo Komarov and David Clarkson so you’ll have to excuse us while we crap our pants in awe of that line.
The Panthers have dropped three in a row and the market doesn’t like that. However, Florida was clearly the better team in all three games against Minnesota, Dallas and St. Louis. The Panthers outshot St. Louis on Sunday, 41-33 and spent the entire third period firing away at Brian Elliott. The Panthers also outshot Minnesota and Dallas but the puck just wasn’t going in. Over those three games, Florida blasted 107 shots on net (that doesn’t include shots directed at the net or blocked) but scored just two goals. Prior to that, Florida picked up seven out of a possible eight points with victories over Anaheim (6-2), Los Angeles and the Islanders and an OT loss to Nashville. In summarizing, Florida could easily be on a seven-game winning streak over the following teams: Minnesota, St. Louis, Dallas, Anaheim, Los Angeles, the Islanders and Nashville. After playing that group, they take a huge step down in class here. This one should appear in slow motion for these Panthers. Florida is right in the thick of the playoff race. They sit just four points behind the Bruins for the final playoff spot with a game in hand. The Panthers are playoff worthy. They compete hard every night and remain a tough out every night. They are among the most undervalued teams in the league because nobody watches them play, even in their home arena. If Florida misses the playoffs, it’ll be because of a poor record in a skills competition (see our take about the shootouts here) and that would be a real shame. They are the vastly superior team here that comes in very motivated. At this price in regulation against Toronto, it is a bet we would make 100% of the time because of the tremendous win expectation it has.
Columbus +140 over PHILADELPHIA
OT included. Philadelphia returns home from a strong four-game trip that saw them pick up points in every game. With backup Ray Emery in goal, Philly lost in OT to Montreal and Columbus before defeating Buffalo on Sunday. They started the trip with a nice 3-1 win in Washington. Against Montreal and Columbus, Philly was outshot by a combined 74-49. We never thought we’d see Ray Emery stealing points but he did in both those games. That said, we know for sure that Emery could blow up at any time and that makes the Flyers a huge risk as the chalk. Philly is a much better play in the underdog role, where they often offer up some value. But as a team with a 24-32 overall record, they have no value against a team that is at least as good (or bad) as they are. Overall, the Flyers have 25 shots on net or less in five of its past six games. That includes back-to-back shot totals of 18 against Toronto and the Islanders. The only team they managed to muster more than 25 shots against over their past six games was Buffalo. That’s not the type of team that is worthy of backing as a significant favorite.
You really never know what you’re going to get from the Jackets. Columbus has been the most polarizing team in the league over the past couple of months. They can look almost unbeatable one night and pathetic the next. We don’t know which version will show up here but what we do know is that if they do show up they have an outstanding chance of winning. The Jackets are definitely the more balanced team with four lines that can all produce. This balanced and dangerous offense has scored three goals or more in five straight. The Jackets have also had 33 shots on net or more in six of its past eight. The Jackets are in a better spot here, as they catch Philly returning home. Once again we have to stick to playing value. Columbus may not win here but one must give them at least an equal chance of doing so and that makes them very worthy of a wager, especially with Emery still being a disaster waiting to happen.
NASHVILLE -½ +100 over San Jose
Regulation only. The Sharks have dropped five of seven. It used to be that they would choke in the playoffs after putting together outstanding regular seasons but this year they are fighting for a playoff spot. If the season ended today, San Jose would be in. They currently hold the final spot but they are hearing footsteps from Minnesota and Los Angeles and they’ll also have to keep pace with Winnipeg and Calgary if they are to make the playoffs. If you are a Sharks backer or fan, the last thing you want to hear is that their playing under some pressure. San Jose has allowed four goals or more in four of its last five games. Antti Niemi is not going to steal a win anytime soon and that means they are going to have to score some goals to win. That’s quite possible but very unlikely that they’ll score enough against this juggernaut.
The Predators have played 28 home games this year. They are 24-3-1 at home so not only do they win 85% of their home games, they do so in regulation far more often than not. We’re always stressing value and asking these Preds to win another home game against a fragile team in regulation without having to spot anything is a true value bet based on the Preds home record. Nashville also figures to be a little extra jacked up with the addition of two key players in Cody Franson and Mike Santorelli. Oli Jokkinen has been a healthy scratch for several games in succession so they lose nothing while getting stronger both up front and in the back end as well. We really needed only once sentence to validate this play so we’ll add that sentence now. Pekka Rinne versus Antti Niemi.
