| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.44 |
| Last 30 Days | 28 | 37 | 0.00 | +0.80 |
| Season to Date | 64 | 77 | 0.00 | +12.44 |
Philadelphia +161 over ST. LOUIS
Very recently the Flyers had won four of five games and three in a row before they returned home to face the Islanders and Blue Jackets. Philly’s stock had climbed considerably after that nice run but it has dropped again after losing those aforementioned two home games while getting outscored 8-4. Now the Flyers hit the road again with their stock low again and that makes us buyers. The Flyers have won five of their past seven road games. They’re simply playing a better brand of hockey away from the Wells Fargo Center. Philadelphia is a dangerous pup with plenty of offensive upside. The knock on the Flyers has been a weak and slow blue-line but that is trending the right way now too. Defensemen Shayne Gostisbehere and Evgeny Medvedev are starting to look very comfortable out there while Michael Del Zotto was already comfortable. Philadelphia is a solid 4-5 against top-10 teams and 6-7 against top-16 teams after a horrible first month.
By contrast, and it may surprise you to learn, the Blues are just 2-8 against top-10 teams and 6-9 against top-16 teams. St. Louis is coming off a 4-1 victory over Arizona. Prior to that, St. Louis has lost three in a row to Toronto, the Islanders and Florida. Against Arizona, St. Louis had 22 shots on net and against Toronto, the Islanders and Florida, they scored one goal in each game. The Blue Notes have been a regular season juggernaut for years. They got off to a good start this year and they have some solid stats both beneath and above the surface. However, those stats are trending the wrong way. The Blues have seen their analytical rankings dropping slowly but steadily over the past six weeks. Ranked in the top-4 in several key categories after the first month of the year, the Blue Notes have now dropped to seventh or eighth in several of those same categories. Perhaps it’s time to concede that this team is on the verge of a major drop-off. They got rid of T.J. Oshie in the off-season and replaced him with Troy Brouwer. That's a big downgrade. David Backes and Alex Steen are slowing down. The Blues are struggling offensively and they’re struggling to win games.
There is another pattern here that may be worth monitoring as well. Ken Hitchcock took over the head-coaching job with the Dallas Stars way back in 1996. After some good years there, the Stars under Hitchcock hit the skids and he was fired. Hitchcock had similar runs with Philadelphia and Columbus before wearing out his welcomes there. When that happens once it’s fine but when it happens with three straight teams it sets a pattern. The pattern it sets is that the team eventually quits on this guy and we may be experiencing that with the Blue Notes right now. Whether or not the Blues’ players have gotten sick of playing for Hitchcock is not the issue here. The issue is value. In that regard, give Philly a seriously legit shot of coming in here and leaving with another road win.
Ottawa +162 over TAMPA BAY
OT included. The Lightning have been awfully quiet this year. Here’s a team that was scoring goals almost at will a season ago and just missed making it into the Stanley Cup finals. The Tyler Johnson, Andrej Palat and Nikita Kucherov line had become one of the most exciting and productive in the league. This year, both Palat and Johnson have spent extended periods of time on the rack. Tyler Johnson has 11 points while Palat has seven. Steven Stamkos can’t find any productive line-mates. The Bolts are ranked 26th in the league in goals scored and they’re ranked 27th in shots on net per game. In its last three games, Tampa has fired away just 25, 22 and 20 shots on net respectively. Two games ago in San Jose, the Bolts took eight penalties. Production on this squad is way down and now they’ll return home from a three-game trip to California where they played Anaheim, San Jose and Los Angeles. We especially like that the Lightning have been off since Sunday, which gives them three full days to become even more lethargic. Finally, the Bolts have the Capitals on deck on Saturday so this looks like a real trouble spot for them.
The Senators are coming off a 4-2 win over Florida on Tuesday. They have now won three of four and seven of their past 10 games. Over its past 23 games, Ottawa has scored three goals or more in 18 of those games and they have also done that in nine of its past 11 games. That’s one of the things that make the Senators so appealing when taking back a price. Another appealing trait is the steady goaltending from Craig Anderson almost every single game. It’s a rare night when Anderson has a poor outing or gives up a soft goal and that’s a luxury that is not overstated enough. With solid goaltending and the ability to score goals, Ottawa is always a dangerous opponent. Now throw in Tampa’s struggles and the difficult scheduling spot tyhat they're in and the Sens’ appeal taking back a tag like this one increases even more.
When it was confirmed this morning that Andrej Palat was cleared to play, this line shot up from +142 to a much higher number now. That's just more over-reaction.
Chicago +118 over NASHVILLE
OT included. These two played on Tuesday in Chicago and the Blackhawks won by a score of 4-1. That was probably the most misleading result of the night, as Nashville dominated that game and only the goaltending of Cory Crawford allowed Chicago to stay ahead in the game and finish the Predators off. Nashville dominating that game did not go unrecognized in the market, which works to our advantage here. We can absolutely understand everyone that bet Nashville on Tuesday anticipating this matchup and coming right back on them today after feeling like they got slighted or received the short end of the stick in that result on Tuesday night. Chicago did not play well and appeared lethargic for long stretches. We can almost assure you we’ll get a better effort from these dangerous Blackhawks here. In other words, there is very little chance of the Blackhawks being flat again.
Having said all that, we’ll go over this one more time. Nashville outshot Chicago 37-23 on Tuesday. Pekka Rinne finished with a save percentage of .870. Rinne's save % in his last four games were .870, .861, .875 and .867. His save % in three of four games prior to that was .842, .852 and .824. Nashville is not losing games because they are a weak team. The Preds lose because Pekka Rinne cannot keep them in games anymore and it’s deflating to the rest of the team to be chasing the game all the time. It’s deflating to play well and be constantly behind on the scoreboard because your goaltender can’t make a key save at a key moment. It’s deflating to tie up a game and then give the lead right back to the opposition because your goaltender can’t make a key save. The market still considers this stiff among the better goaltenders in the league and until an adjustment is made, we will continue our attack on the NHL’s worst goaltender.
All plays are 2 units
