| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 0 | 0.00 | +2.00 |
| Last 30 Days | 7 | 7 | 0.00 | +1.18 |
| Season to Date | 18 | 16 | 0.00 | +5.12 |
#760 COLORADO ST -7 over Air Force
2:00 PM EST. Air Force is getting way too much credit here because they are an above .500 Mountain West team but quite frankly, it couldn’t be uglier. The Falcons are 8-7 after playing just three true road games. In those three road games, they are 0-3 against New Mexico State, Army and Wyoming. The Falcons out of conference schedule ranks 304th in the country and their overall schedule ranks 291st in the country. This is a team that does not travel well and that is really up against it here again.
Colorado State has a seven-point loss at Stanford and a one-point loss at Boise State but its best player, Gian Clavell has only played in seven games and missed the Stanford game. Clavell averaged 20.8 points and 6.9 rebounds in 10 games last year and is rounding into peak form right about now. He’s a great scorer from anywhere on the floor and is ready to take over. Playing without Clavell for an extended period of time figured to have served this team well. Other players had to step up and be relied upon and as a result, the Rams will take a 10-6 record into this home game along with a 2-1 conference mark. With Clavell, Emmanuel Omogbo and Prentiss Nixon, the Rams might just have the three best players on the court here and we trust we’re getting a very decent number to swallow here. Play: Colorado State -7 -106 (risking 2.12 units to win 2).
#767 Oregon St +10 over WASHINGTON
3:00 PM EST. The Beavers stock couldn’t be lower right now and that is precisely the time to step in because the points being offered are absolutely inflated. OSU is 4-12. They have losses to Lamar, Tulsa, Southern Oregon, Savannah State, Long Beach State and Portland among others. The Beavers have also opened up conference play with three straight losses but don’t think this team isn’t dangerous because they are. The Beavers are likely without Tres Tringle again but there’s a chance he plays and if he does, it’s a bonus for us. Injuries are something we seldom discuss because they are factored into the line already. This injury, however, means even more inflated points because the Beavers are a team that not many want to get behind right now. However, OSU has made some adjustments. They lost by just 13 to UCLA and by just seven to USC and this is not a step up in class.
This wager is more about fading the Huskies than it is about backing the Beavers. Markelle Fultz is a one-man show but he can’t do it on his own. However, the market puts too much emphasis on Fultz’s presence because he’s likely an NBA first-rounder. The problem is that the Huskies lost their top three scorers from last season’s team that went 9-9 in conference play. This season, the Huskies are 7-7 overall and 0-2 in conference play. They were buried by 22 points by Oregon in their last game, which had to sting and hurt their already fragile confidence. Indeed the Huskies have played a tougher schedule than the Beavers but that doesn’t say much when those tougher opponents are steamrolling them. Washington lost by 27 to Gonzaga, by 22 to Oregon and by 13 and 15 points in back-to-back games against TCU. This turbulent path that the Huskies are on is one we are not going to ignore. For a freshman, Fultz is carrying a massive load on his shoulders and the team overall is relying on several newcomers. The Huskies are young and they are talented and if everyone sticks around they should be difficult to beat in a year or two but right now, this team is not ready to take on the role of a big favorite and spot double digits to a conference foe. Play: Oregon State +10 -106 (risking 2.12 units to win 2).
#877 San Diego St +131 over BOISE ST
11:00 PM EST. The buy-low, sell high angle is worth exploiting in every sport and college basketball just might be the best sport of them all to apply it in because there are so many teams with misleading records. Boise State is one such team. The Broncs come in with a 10-4 record along with a 3-0 conference (Mountain West) record. BSU has now reeled off six in a row and even came within five points of Oregon in a 68-63 loss. However, we’re more interested in the line than the final score and in that regard, the Broncos came in as an 18-point dog against Oregon. While they deserve credit for hanging with them, one never knows the state of mind of a big favorite and there is a great chance that knowing they were an 18-point favorite, the Ducks showed up in body only. Regardless, that was just one game and putting a lot of weight on one game is not in our toolbox.
What sticks out more is that three of the Broncos last six wins have been decided by three points or less and two of them have been decided by one point. That’s what is referred to as luck because essentially, a team involved in a lot of close games should not win (or lose) all of them. Those that do are either lucky (or unlucky) thus, Boise State is a free throw away from being an 8-6 squad or even worse, one possession away in three of its last six wins from being a .500 team. The Broncs started the year 4-4, which is interesting considering what we just suggested regarding luck.
For three years, center Skylar Spencer and power forward Winston Shepard served as the equivalent of Damon Harrison-like run-stuffers for the Aztecs, occupying huge swaths of space and shaping typical Steve Fisher teams: top-10 defensive efficiency rooted in smothering opponents inside, plus strong rebounding at both ends. Those big men are gone now, as is backup center Angelo Chol. San Diego State has had to retool as a team driven by guards Jeremy Hemsley and Trey Kell. Actually, we should say true guards because last season the Aztecs were so reliant on skyscrapers that about half the time, they ran their offense through Shepard in the low post. The result is that the Aztecs are are forcing turnovers far more often (steals on 11.3 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 33rd in the NCAA, up from 213th last year). They're making more accurate passes, cutting down on their own turnovers and they have even opened up their shooting, taking a downright shocking 42.6 percent of attempts from behind the arc (ranking 45th, up from 237th).
San Diego State has had to deal with injuries and was wildly uneven in non-conference play, but that's the kind of high-risk, high-reward team we're interested in. The Mountain West has sent an average of three teams a year to the Big Dance, but just one, Fresno State, got a ticket last season. Thus, this conference is going to be in a dogfight and right now San Diego State is 0-2 in the conference and just 8-6 overall. However, the Aztecs have an impressive 12-point win over Cal this season and according to Kem Pom, they have been the 334th unluckiest team in the country. SDSU’s two conference losses were by six and three points to New Mexico and to a 13-3 Nevada squad, respectively. Analytically speaking, Boise State is not in the same class as the Bulldogs, Lobos, Wolf Pack or Aztecs and of all those teams, this Aztecs’ outift might be the best of them all. The Aztecs are now an 0-2 in the conference dog that is backed into a corner that is playing an overvalued 10-4 squad that is 3-0 in the conference and we’re suggesting that the most bite in this contest will come from the animal that is not only backed into a corner but is the superior team too. SDSU outright is the call. Play: San Diego State +131 (risking 2 units).
