| Range | W | L | P | +/- (Units) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 1 | 1 | 0.00 | +1.30 |
| Last 30 Days | 35 | 32 | 0.00 | +29.86 |
| Season to Date | 40 | 44 | 0.00 | +17.64 |
Detroit +137 over BOSTON
OT included. The Bruins are coming off a 3-2 home loss to the Avalanche. We’re not going to put a lot of emphasis on one loss but that one might have a stinging hangover. Boston scored two goals very early in the game to take a 2-0 lead. They would not score again while the Avs would tally three unanswered. The B’s have now scored two goals or fewer in four straight while losing four of their last five games. What’s even more disturbing about the Bruins is that they are spending a ton of time in the penalty box lately, which is a sure sign of a team that is running around in its own end. We like the Bruins as a live pooch but as the chalk in this price range, they are worth fading in the present form that they are in.
We had suggested that the Red Wings were playing some sloppy hockey prior to last night’s loss to San Jose. They were anything but sloppy last night, which coincided with the return of Pavel Datsyuk to the lineup. Detroit played probably its best game of the season last night in a 3-2 loss. Jimmy Howard allowed three goals on just 14 shots on net but the same fate does not await the Bruins here. Enter Petr Mrazek that is almost on the same level as Carey Price. Mrazek is the next great goaltending star in this league and it’s only a matter of time before Howard is relegated to back-up duty. Mrazek is 5-3 with a 2.07 goals against average and a .938 save percentage. The Reds Wings are just 8-8 on the year and the market is now completely aware of how average they have performed. Last night’s loss to the then reeling Sharks does not add to their market appeal. That works to our benefit because we know get a great tag on them in a game they have an outstanding chance of winning in. Biggest overlay on the board today and we’re on it.
Winnipeg +144 over NASHVILLE
OT included. Winnipeg’s stock has dropped drastically over the past couple of weeks because they’re losing games and they’re allowing a bunch of goals against in the process. The Jets have dropped four straight and allowed 17 goals against in that span. The Jets have allowed four goals or more in five of their past 10 games and five goals or more in three of those. Winnipeg’s only victory over its last six games came in Toronto against the Maple Leafs by a score of 4-2. It would appear that the Jets defense is leaky but that’s not the case at all. That donkey, Andrej Pavelec has been in net for three straight games and in six of the Jets’ last nine games while the superior Michael Hutchinson sits on the bench. Hutchinson is 4-1-1 with a .928 save percentage while Pavelec is 4-7 with a .905 save percentage. Pavelec’s save % in his last two games was .875 and .667. We’re not sure why Coach Paul Maurice continues to turn to Pavelec but we have to assume those decisions are made upstairs. You see, Pavelec is making 3½ million this year while Hutchinson is being paid $575K and that explains it all because everything is about money. EVERYTHING. They are not going to pay a donkey 3½ million to sit on the bench all year so the team will continue to lose more than they win until they concede that they made a mistake and write it off or trade him. In any event, we expect Hutch to be in net for this one and will only make this wager if he is. The Jets are still a strong team with nothing but upside in this price range. Because of their recent woes, we get them at a great price here.
The Predators are coming off an OT loss to the Maple Leafs but that’s not a big deal. Nashville is still 9-6 on the year with five of those victories occurring at home. This is a good team but they have the same issues as the Jets in that their #1 goaltender Pekka Rinne is a huge liability. Please don’t send us statistical numbers to disprove that because we’re not interested. Rinne may have some good numbers but we suggested two weeks ago that those numbers were in for a huge regression and that is precisely what is happening. Rinne allows soft goals continually. He’s slow and he’s always fighting the puck, even on weak shots from the opposition. His saves are almost always positional ones. We love that the Jets, unlike the Maple Leafs, have a slew of sharp shooters and that’s a big problem for Rinne. Goaltending is often the deciding factor in a high majority of NHL games. When we can take back a price like this with superior goaltending, we’re almost always going to make that bet. Nashville is a very live dog but once again they are far too risky as a big favorite. Again, this bet only stands if Michael Hutchison gets the call in net. We’ll update this when that info becomes available.
BUFFALO +100 over San Jose
OT included. Give the Sharks credit last night for going into Detroit and rallying for a win after trailing 1-0 very early in the game. However, let’s call a spade a spade, shall we? If you wagered on the Sharks last night and cashed your ticket, consider it a gift because they were badly outplayed the entire evening. San Jose had a mere 14 shots on net while Detroit doubled that. It is a rare game when a team gets outshot 2-1 and emerges victorious. Detroit held a 53% to 27% puck possession advantage in the offensive zone. Seriously, if you bet the Sharks, go buy your father-in-law a cigar. We suggested that the Sharks are in trouble and nothing about last night’s game changes our position on them. In fact, they looked even worse than we suspected. On paper, San Jose just went into Detroit and won and now they’re favored in Buffalo after what should be a 3-9 run over its last 12 games since starting the year 4-0. The Sharkies cannot be favored in Buffalo.
Buffalo just keeps winning and the market just keeps ignoring them. That’s fine by us because we’ll keep playing them until they say no. Buffalo is coming off a 3-2 win in Florida in a game they were badly outplayed in (we get some of those too ya know). Rarely are the Sabres going to have back-to-back sub-par performances. Buffalo has now won three in a row and five of its past six games. They remain a strong analytics team, ranking in the top-9 in many key statistical categories. The Sabres also figure to get a favorable goaltender matchup here as there is a good chance the Sharkies will turn to Alex Stalock after Martin Jones played last night. Regardless, the Sabres have a very good feel about them. These are a bunch of young guys that can’t wait to get back on the ice. There figures to be some excitement in the building too. As for the Sharks, there is not a good feeling about them at all. Wrong side favored.
