3 for Tuesday

jaypaw · Dec 21, 2004

Playing three games tonight:

Iowa -3.5 (-109)
Iowa ML (-167)
Effectively a 2 unit play but I'd prefer staying away from that in principle - just something I have about adding units to strengh of picks (then again I seem to have no trouble hopping on the chalk which is what gets me down 21.3 units [30-40]). If this game were at TTU I think they would be favored despite their loss to Ohio - and despite the fact that they are yet again the team with less talent than their opponent. I don't doubt that Bobby K is a good coach - and to be honest I was suckered into completely believeing they would blow away Ohio State. Not this time. Iowa is a better team, playing at home - and should wipe the floor with TTU here.

Clemson pk
This could be a tight game but I'm going with Clemson to pull one out on their home floor. Clemson has had some convincing outings and really hasnt shown much weakness - despite being without babalola early on (who's been kinda streak since his return but certainly helpful).

USC -5
Indiana State hasnt won a road game (although they came close at Indiana which scares me some), and USC has stepped it up a notch since the media buzz around their coaching situation. Also McMillan should be back - even if limited time due to his hand still healing - his height can't hurt.

ZZZSpeedster · Dec 21, 2004

Clemson is playing in Hawaii
and Iowa is playing in Chicago

not homecourts

jaypaw · Dec 21, 2004

THANKS

I shoulda known

Not worried about Iowa - only the Clemson game could be a heart attack game

GL2u

jaypaw · Dec 22, 2004

2-2 -0.2 last night
YTD 32-42 -21.3

gotta love the juice - and fades too

jaypaw · Dec 22, 2004

2-2 -0.2 last night
YTD 32-42 -21.5

jaypaw · Dec 22, 2004

Tonight going with

USC +5

jaypaw · Dec 22, 2004

wake -3.5

jaypaw · Dec 23, 2004

W-USC +5
W-wake -3.5
YTD 34-42 -19.5

jaypaw · Dec 23, 2004

playing providence +3 tonight

memphis really needs to step up for a win here (key statement if you are looking for a fade) but these are the teams that memphis has played at home (actually some may have been neutral courts so please correct me if this is the case):

Louisiana Tech (favored by 11 lost by 9)

Austin Peay (favored by 16 won by 5)

Mississippi (favored by 15 lost by 12)

Arkansas St. (favored by 18 won by 4)

George Mason (favored by 16 won by 17)

Providence has not really been tested on the road and the few games they have played away from home have been against realtively good ranked teams - they have played three road games (again correct me if I am wrong I thought at least one of these was on a neutral court):

Florida (8 point dog, lost by 18)

Michigan (1 point favorite, won by 9)
:| Wake Forest (9 point dog, lost by 12)

Florida wins by 5 buckets, and wake wins by a three ball yet wake has 5 chances to establish themselves at home and can only put one of them away (a 1 point cover as a 16 pt favorite).

Finally Memphis is getting a line that is more down to earth at -3, but I can't say that they deserve even that. The fact is that providence would be favored against all 5 of the opponents memphis has been unable to beat ATS at home (or on a neutral court), and as favorites of 11 points or more in all 5 of those games memphis struggled at times when they really "shouldnt" have had to (3-2 SU at home, with close shaves vs arkansas state and austin peay preventing a potentially dreadful 1-4 home record)

I cant say why Memphis has been so overrated by linesmakers (obviously they know they can get people to play memphis or they would have made an adjustment many games ago) and despite the fact that providence hasnt exactly been stellar ATS - but they havent been as bad and in my opinion are worth a shot.

GL