3 big plays for the conference championship week....

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Alabama -17:
This is why Nick Saban is one of the all time greats, for games like this. Alabama is built for these types of games, total domination. The tide will be laser focused and Saban will be ruthless in his teams preparation. Florida couldn't even score an offensive point against in state rival fsu, what in the world makes anyone think they are going to put up points on Alabama? The only offense the gators have is running the ball and we all know this, you don't beat Alabama by running the ball, they beat you when that's your game plan.... How did lsu do this year against bama with the best running back in the country? See what I'm saying, this is going to be a full fledged massacre in the sec title game... Nick Saban will have this team so prepared that I think for two weeks in a row Florida won't score a single point on offense... The gators defense is good but it's going to be on the field all game trying to tackle the predator, good luck with that. You're going to need Arnold Schwarzenegger playing defense to have a chance shutting Henry down. I bet he gets 35 carries and goes for 175 and 3tds. Alabama is going to flat out steamroll Florida and waltz into the playoffs. This line is right on in my opinion because of the defense the gators possess, but at the same time it's also way off because there's no way in Gods green earth bama is going to let Florida go up and down the field. This is going to be Alabama notre dame all over again. Get the nunber now!

5* 500$
wku -8.5
Another game where you say, "name your score".... If WKU wants to they will score 60 here, it's that simple.... Will they, maybe but they'll probably settle for 50-55 points. southern miss isn't bad and they've come a long way, but they aren't nearly at the level the hill toppers are.... This is for all the marbles and the Hilltoppers are playing for a lot here, potentially a pretty nice bowl game....expect them to keep their foot on the gas pedal all game. Plain and simple this will end up the same way as last week, a 21 point win or more for WKU and never in question. The play is WKU or no play at all, pretty simple. Doughty is one of the best in the country, no reason to play against him when he is spinning the bean.

5*500$
bowling green -9
i love northern Illinois because they know how to win championships and have the right coach to keep doing it, but this game is different. NIU just got thumped by Ohio and bowling green is an offensive juggernaut. Honestly anything under 14 is an automatic play here, because NIU just doesn't have the personnel offensively to keep up with BG. By no means does BG possess a great defense, but just like Oregon they've gotten better the second half of the season. NIU isn't getting a ton of production from the replacement QB and I expect them to try and control the clock all game in order to stay within striking distance. Unfortunately for them, BG who has taken their foot off the pedal almost every game they've won will not do that here, so playing keep away probably won't work to well. Rod Carey will need a rabbits foot up his ass to stay within 17 in this game. The times are changing in the MAC and Toledo, western Michigan and bowling green have all come a long way. I see carry leaving for a bigger job this off season. The whole playbook is available here for BG and it should get crazy early with Matt Johnson chasing conference passing records, I just expect BG to make more plays offensively and wear NIU down winning by 21,something like 52-31. I'd be very surprised if NIU wins let alone stays within the number.


***if my BG play hits Friday night I'll probably be pushing my money towards another Saturday game like Stanford, UnC, temple or maybe the Iowa sparty game....I still have 350$ to play with as well, just waiting for some line movement***** Bol guys
 

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ALA down to -16.5, wouldn't surprise me to see it get to 14. Definitely wait if you want ALA in this one.
 

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Just for fun gentleman, in going to pick each game on the slate, but only betting on the ones I've specified thus far: feel free to chime in

BG wins and covers as stated above:

wku wins and covers:

Texas@baylor: funny as this may sound but Texas might make a bowl game with a win... Why because a handful of 5-7 teams will get a bowl bid this season because of the lack of 6 win teams. It may not be many schools but a few will. Texas already beat a playoff team in Oklahoma and now has a chance to dethrone a shocked, dysfunctional, and injury riddled Baylor. Will they win.....?i don't think so, they come up short, but Baylor will have all sorts of trouble and Texas will likely cover the number of 20 as it sits now. It's going to be hard for briles to get his team ready to play Texas when all anyone on that team/staff can think about is what "should have been" this season..... Not to mention their overtime loss last week to tcu.... I think this game is seriously 50/50 as crazy as that may sound to many, but Texas has a legitimate shot to beat a floundering Baylor team.... Texas can score, and baylors defense is shitty at best.

Temple/Houston:
houston has the best player on the field in Greg Ward jr, but temples defense is all sorts of stupid good.... Seriously their defense would literally be the best defense in the big 12 and the pac 12 without a doubt in my mind. It would be the second best defense in the acc behind Clemson, the 3rd best in the sec behind bama and Florida, and likely in a 3-way tie the best defense in the big 10... They are well coached, disciplined and just execute... Offensively they are mediocre and everything runs thru their zone read and power attack with walker and Davis.... There's not much vertical passing threat but they do get a little here and there. Houston is a product of a weak schedule in my opinion.... They barely beat Louisville and Tulsa who are both average at best, beat a very weak Vanderbilt( safe sec scheduled game), played and barely beat Cincy and Memphis when both teams had cooled off drastically and come back down to earth, then lost to the only good defensive team they've played all season in UConn..... Granted they didn't have their QB that game but still; its UConn, they have no offense.... Temple kicked the shit out of UConn making them look like a Jv high school team..... Greg Ward Jr may be electric but their schedule was setup perfectly and the best teams on their schedule had faded at just the right time for them.... Temple has played a monster of a schedule considering their conference and talent disparity... Give me the far superior defense led by ginger and freckles and watch them stifle Houston for the entire first half... Temple and their SOS will show up big time here, this team is battle tested. Their defense has to win this game, it's their identity and it's how they've gotten to where they are. Very resilient team. As long as walker and Davis move the ball and get 20+ points temple has a fantastic shot at a straight up win. Temple wins and covers. I'll sprinkle that ML hard and take what will likely be +7 or higher before kickoff, already at +6.5 now.

Georgia state/Georgia southern:

southern wins but georgia state fighting for bowl eligibility covers +21.

Texas state @ arky state:
arkansas state wins and covers easily in a rowdy senior night atmosphere in Jonesboro. Expect the wolves to be firing on all cylinders riding a 7 game win streak. Texas state isn't playing for anything at 3-8.... Take the chalk here... Lines up to -22.5 which seems dangerous but I see good value with the red wolves all the way up to -27. Huge night for Freddie knighten... Pups

Alabama, as already stated above:

W. Virginia @ k state: senior night in Manhattan and possibly bill snyders final game in the house that, well, the house that he built lol.... +6 to the mountaineers at home?!?! Wtf; seriously.....West Virginia has lost to every good team in the big 12 and only beaten average or less opponents. K state is playing for bowl eligibility, a final hurrah for the head coach, and it's senior night in Manhattan; k state wins a tight ball game straight up... Take the points if you want but I'd just play the ML personally..... Carry bill off the field lol

Troy @ Lafayette: rajun Cajuns in a pickem

App state @ south Alabama: take app state to win and cover -18

Air Force / San Diego state: weird game here.... Not sure which Air Force team is going to show up.... Tough call but I like the Aztecs -6.5 because of their consistency and defense, Aztecs win 34-27

USC / Stanford: USC will give Stanford all sorts of fits. Stanford will be beat up and drained after that notre dame game, they are riding on adrenaline right now while USC dismantled cross town rival to make it to the pax 12 title game.... USC has a lot of mojo rolling in here and the size on defense to push back against the Stanford line... They will bottle up mcaffery for the most part. Weapons galore for Stanford to matchup against and I like USC to possibly win, but ultimately fall short with a missed fg to tie the game. Take the points tho USC +4, stanford wins 30-27

North Carolina / Clemson: I've been waiting to see dabo be the real dabo we all know.... The one that chokes the big game. So far this season he hasn't, and the team has ridden Watson and gallman to the title game.... Not so fast... North Carolina can turn it on and score in a hurry... They play to the level of their competition, and this game is a program changer for the Tar Heels.... For a while no one in college football was playing hotter than them, and I think they shock Clemson..... Not just win either, I think they handle Clemson and win by 11... The line is floating around +6 but the ML should be advantageous... It's risky for sure but I just feel that way to many people are calling Clemson a "team of destiny".... Prove it to me against an electric team like UnC and you'll get my nod. Clemson hasn't looked great tho the last few weeks. They've had to rely heavily on Watson and his legs, that's not a good sign. Tar Heels cover and win straight up shaking up the entire playoff scenario... 41-30 UnC

Iowa / MSU :
everything thinks iowa is awful, not sure why, because they don't win by 30+??? We as a college football fan base have become to accustomed to seeing blowouts. Iowa is like Stanford, temple, Michigan etc .. Do just enough to win and not impress anyone while doing it... Very vanilla. Everyone wants to give the coaching nod to MSU, not me.... I think it's dead even, and sparty has had defensive issues all season. This game will be low scoring and a slug fest. Iowa has won these types of games all season and have the health, the confidence and the momentum to win. They will represent the big ten in the playoffs, Iowa 23-17
 

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ALA down to -16.5, wouldn't surprise me to see it get to 14. Definitely wait if you want ALA in this one.
I hear ya crunch, I don't think it matters at all bud.... Bama is locked and loaded... I honestly think they win in the first half and just add on fg after fg after fg in the second half just watching that lead climb from 17-0 to 26-0 going into the fourth quarter
 

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Just for fun gentleman, in going to pick each game on the slate, but only betting on the ones I've specified thus far: feel free to chime in

BG wins and covers as stated above:

wku wins and covers:

Texas@baylor: funny as this may sound but Texas might make a bowl game with a win... Why because a handful of 5-7 teams will get a bowl bid this season because of the lack of 6 win teams. It may not be many schools but a few will. Texas already beat a playoff team in Oklahoma and now has a chance to dethrone a shocked, dysfunctional, and injury riddled Baylor. Will they win.....?i don't think so, they come up short, but Baylor will have all sorts of trouble and Texas will likely cover the number of 20 as it sits now. It's going to be hard for briles to get his team ready to play Texas when all anyone on that team/staff can think about is what "should have been" this season..... Not to mention their overtime loss last week to tcu.... I think this game is seriously 50/50 as crazy as that may sound to many, but Texas has a legitimate shot to beat a floundering Baylor team.... Texas can score, and baylors defense is shitty at best.

Temple/Houston:
houston has the best player on the field in Greg Ward jr, but temples defense is all sorts of stupid good.... Seriously their defense would literally be the best defense in the big 12 and the pac 12 without a doubt in my mind.
Not if they had to defense PAC12/Big12 offenses each week. IMO. AAC does not have the type of offenses that are seen in those conferences. With that being said, they do have a very good defense, but I think UH gets them, unless hc Herman is too distracted.

Texas/Baylor...Other than state pride, I wonder what Baylor has to play for at this point. I wonder what their motivation will be. I want to see how much smack Briles is talking this week as that will tell me if they are interested in playing. If they are, they blow UT out.
 

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Good luck with your plays. Like them all but temple play . Houston will put up 40
 

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Solid write ups on the 2nd batch, Quack, I'm in agreement on many. While I think ALA should be about a 10 point favorite, the # did bounce back to 17 for now and it might not move off of that. Numbers guys like myself will like FLA at that #, but not sure who else will given Florida's offensive struggles since Grier was suspended. It should be a low scoring game (I project upper 30s), making those points even more valuable. I'm banking on Florida scoring as much as Auburn did last week -- 13 points. If they do I think that should be enough to cover.
 

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Not if they had to defense PAC12/Big12 offenses each week. IMO. AAC does not have the type of offenses that are seen in those conferences. With that being said, they do have a very good defense, but I think UH gets them, unless hc Herman is too distracted.

Texas/Baylor...Other than state pride, I wonder what Baylor has to play for at this point. I wonder what their motivation will be. I want to see how much smack Briles is talking this week as that will tell me if they are interested in playing. If they are, they blow UT out.
I agree about these AAC teams. They may be good in a one off bowl game against a Power 5 team, but if they had to play a Big 12 round robin schedule they would go down in flames. It took TCU 3 years to recruit up to the depth it needed to compete in the conference from week to week. And they are located in a hotbed of talent. With all of the injuries they had to deal with this year, they wouldn't have ever gone 10-2 without the added depth they have now. Especially on the defensive side of the ball. As for Baylor/Texas, if the Baylor 3rd string QB plays like he did in Stillwater, Baylor will win by 30. If he plays like he did in Ft Worth they'll lose by 10. One thing we know for sure, El Nino wasn't kind to Baylor this year. They lost both of their games in a driving rainstorm.
 

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Solid write ups on the 2nd batch, Quack, I'm in agreement on many. While I think ALA should be about a 10 point favorite, the # did bounce back to 17 for now and it might not move off of that. Numbers guys like myself will like FLA at that #, but not sure who else will given Florida's offensive struggles since Grier was suspended. It should be a low scoring game (I project upper 30s), making those points even more valuable. I'm banking on Florida scoring as much as Auburn did last week -- 13 points. If they do I think that should be enough to cover.
If I was Florida I think I would stack the box and keep them in front of you, and make anyone except Henry beat you. Especially since Coker can be awful at times. All they can do is hope he has one of his bad games. I know Auburn dropped a pick-six, otherwise they are right there in that game in the end. And they are almost as incompetent as UF on offense.
 

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A2q...........nice write ups.........BOL with this weeks action.........indy
 

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WKU is your best bet here IMO, they are unbelievably explosive on offense and are playing at home, i would take them all the way up to -13.5. Bama is a tough one, 17 points is alot for any SEC west conference championship game. I love SEC football, and can see where vegas is on their high horse about their defense and henry dominating auburn. Lets not forget the success florida has had this season, they are a hell of a football team. Here the bottom line..Alabama wins this football game, now the question is will they continue to pound the ball or try to get fancy with lane kiffins play calling. The best value is personally see is a teaser with UNC, WKU & Bama. Either way, best of luck and thank you very much for the write up and insight. This is one of the saddest (bc its almost over lol) yet most exciting times of the year for CFB.

-ville
 

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Like most of these myself, W. KY the most in the like dept. absolutely Love the UNC play, on the ML at that...
 

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Thanks gentleman for the input and kind words. I appreciate all the feedback.

ive got 350$ to play with and I'm strongly considering dumping that on western Kentucky if the line gets to -7.... It's dropping for some reason lol.... People are crazy to bet southern miss..... I'm also torn because I really want to bet that texas / Baylor over at 69, and Texas ML is +875..... Wow, so tempting.... I just have this vision that Texas catches Baylor with an early uppercut and goes up 14-17 and finds a way to hold on....


Lots of of good money line plays too.... Sheeesh.... Need that bowling green play to cash Friday so I can throw some serious guaps all across the board on the ML plays and overs
 

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Thanks gentleman for the input and kind words. I appreciate all the feedback.

ive got 350$ to play with and I'm strongly considering dumping that on western Kentucky if the line gets to -7.... It's dropping for some reason lol.... People are crazy to bet southern miss..... I'm also torn because I really want to bet that texas / Baylor over at 69, and Texas ML is +875..... Wow, so tempting.... I just have this vision that Texas catches Baylor with an early uppercut and goes up 14-17 and finds a way to hold on....


Lots of of good money line plays too.... Sheeesh.... Need that bowling green play to cash Friday so I can throw some serious guaps all across the board on the ML plays and overs
I wouldnt trust Texas even with the extra day of rest to prepare. If Baylor comes out and runs the ball UT cannot stop them. I just don't like the Texas QB/RBs against the Baylor front 7, especially in Waco (aka Wack-o). UT on the road this year lost 38-3 at ND, 50-7 @TCU, 24-0 @Iowa St, and 38-20 @WVa. Sound like a trend. Also UT said last week that they would not go to a bowl if they finished up 5-7, unless Big12 steps in and makes them to fill out B12 bowl allotment. As of now, Big12 does not have enough teams to fill out it's bowl allotment.
 

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17 could be a tad high on the Bama game... Take the even $ to win the Championship also...
BG and WK are very fun teams that like to pay cash :)
I will attend if they play each other in a bowl game!!!!! Not sure if that could happen with the bowls tho...
GL Quak
:toast:
FSU was soo easy it was not even funny last Sat...
 

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bol quack, good write ups. cant believe u think sparty only scores 17 in a dome.
be careful on iowa gents, undefeated team catching more then a fg?
 

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