3.29-4.4 NCAA/NIT Thread

[ApolloKid]

3 unit: 0-1
2 unit: 54-42
1 unit: 148-137-9
Total: 202-180-9 +9.6 units (Post season: 41-40-2 +4 units)

1-0 on Sunday with Wisconsin. I anticipate one play tonight in the NIT.

 

[ApolloKid]

3.29.05

NIT Semifinals

611 South Carolina +4 vs. Maryland 1 unit
--SC worthy of a unit here. More of a fade against Maryland who has backed into this spot after being played tough by Oral Roberts, Davidson and TCU. Any of those games could have knocked the Terps out, but to their credit they got here. If they have a lapse and fall back tonight, SC's defense will shut them down. I make the line about 2, and you have to wonder if Maryland is even a true favorite at this stage of the season/tournament.

That is my only play tonight. I'll have at least one and maybe a second Final Four play, and we'll see who is the NIT championship later this week.

GL.

 

[TigerBait]

Everybody and their brother in on SoCar tonight...

I don't like it at all.

 

[ApolloKid]

3 unit: 0-1
2 unit: 54-42
1 unit: 149-137-9
Total: 203-180-9 +10.6 units (Post season: 42-40-2 +5 units)

1-0 on Tuesday with South Carolina. No pick tonight in the championship. I will study the props today if books put some up. Sad to see the season end.

GL.

 

[TigerBait]

No play for the championship of Not IN Tournament??

wow, what discipline.

 

[ApolloKid]

A play

No opinion on a side, but I did take Under 26.5 turnovers at Pinnacle.

At the beginning of the day, I wanted to take a steals prop, but I feel the 12.5 is a good line. If you go over on that play, it will have to be South Carolina's pressure because St. Joe's doesn't steal the ball much. I think the turnover line is based in part on Maryland's collapse in the semifinals, so I expect at most about 22-23 turnovers in this game.

GL whatever way you go tonight. It should be a good game.

 

[ApolloKid]

Another prop

I like this prop better than any side I'll play this weekend:

Who will have the most rebounds?
Louisville -.5
Illinois +.5

I layed the chalk with Louisville this morning. Pinnacle moves these lines based on action, so any kind of play will move the line a few cents. I'd lay it up to about 150, but I would reduce my bet on anything over -140. Louisville has dominated the boards in this tourney while Illinois has been outrebounded in 3 of their 4 games.

As for last night, the turnover prop went way under so I was happy with that play. The steals prop went under as well, but, as posted before, I didn't make the play. I was hoping to find a South Carolina more steals than St. Joe's, but didn't.

If I find another one, I'll post it.

 

[ApolloKid]

One more prop

Michigan St.-UNC Under 32.5 turnovers at Pinny.

Another prop like a lot.

Can't find much else I like out there. I stay away from player props for the most part. I like team props, over/under and yes/no. Still have some work to do before games tip, but the two I posted here today are my best. Whether they hit or not, who knows. I do like them better than any of the sides tomorrow.

As for sides, I am leaning toward both dogs, but we'll see what happens in the morning with the lines.

 

[ApolloKid]

1-1 on the propositions yesterday, handing over some vig to the books in the process. Louisville rebounding was scalpable come game time. Of course, I didn't chose to scalp and paid the consequences.

Sorry for anyone who played that prop based on my recommendation. Louisville had 6 rebounds in the second half. Yes, 6. Of course, Illinois didn't miss too many shots, but the Cardinals were all one and done on offense. Very disappointed in their effort. Pitino got outcoached and the players outplayed.

The turnover prop went way under in the second game, which was a bright spot.

As for tomorrow, no play on the final. There are people far better than me that can help you decide which way to go. Lines are so tight at this stage of the season. I personally feel the game can go either way. I'll continue to look for props. Played Steals Under 17.5 at Pinny this morning. My line is 13-15, so I think it will go under. I'll post anymore that I like.

GL.

 

[ApolloKid]

Another prop

I played Turnovers Under 28.5 this morning at Pinnacle. My line was 24-26.

If I see anymore of these plays today, I'll post. But this is probably it.

GL.

 

[ApolloKid]

Knocked down two more props tonight, making it 4-1 this week on these plays. I am not counting them in any type of official record here because it is hard for anyone to get the same line because the vig gets moved so quickly. Overall, a profitable season. I hope to post some parting thoughts tomorrow when my mind is fresh.

If I don't post here again, I'll try to post golf, NBA playoffs and baseball for a little while. It has really been fun though it was tough to do it everyday when I was losing. Not sure if I'll be back on a daily basis next year or not.

AK