2nd round of WNBA

[BigGamesOnly]

YTD: 3-1 +1.83

The first round of games in the WNBA saw 2 out of the 4 favorites losing the first game on the road. I believe that has skewed gambling on these games to one side. My write-ups on the games will explain what I mean.

Detroit Shock at Connecticut Sun
Det +0.5 (1st Half)
Det +1

I'm betting 1/2 unit on each of these bets. Det had the league's best regular-season record at 25-9 while Conn had an 18-16 record. Det had a 12-5 road record while Conn had a 10-7 home record. I believe the line is favored toward the home team because of the first round but I think Det should be favored in this game.

Los Angeles Sparks at Sacramento Monarchs
LA -0.5 (1st Half)
LA -1.0

Again, I'll bet half a unit each here. After being surprised by Minn on the road, the Sparks picked up their game as the remaining 2 games were never in question. The Sparks do not want to be put in the position of being down 0-1 again. LA's record during the regular season was second-best behind Det at 24-10 while Sac's record was 19-15. LA's road record was the league's best 13-4 while Sac's home record was 12-5. I feel this line is at -1 due to the 2 home teams winning their series in the first round.

I will also be looking at 2nd Half's. If Det or LA get up big I will be looking at taking the other teams to win the 2nd half. If Conn or Sac get up in the first half I will be looking at taking the road teams to win the 2nd half. It depends upon the line at the time.

[This message was edited by BigGamesOnly on September 04, 2003 at 12:49 PM.]

 

[jonruns]

Interestingly, these four teams were 6-0 SU at home in the first round.

Going against you by taking SAC. Here's why:

1. SAC is coming off a series against the best D; Monarchs should have an easier time of it vs LA which is coming off a series vs easy D.

2. LA series vs MIN exposed the Sparks' greatest weakness: their lack of depth. In the game at MIN, LA was up 49-32 at the half, but the loss of Teasley to injury and with Leslie/Dixon in foul trouble they let MIN back into the game.

LA has five great players but no reserves. Those five starters played 38+ minutes in game 3. Obviously Cooper wasn't taking any chances.

If any of them go down or get into foul trouble (which is more likely on the road), then LA is hurting. Conversely, SAC has a deep bench.

In terms of your 2H plays on LA, keep an eye on the foul situation, esp with Leslie.

Good luck.

- Jon

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Jon:

Good points about LA's lack of depth. The key here is the foul trouble/injury situation. Another good point you make is the 2H situation if LA gets into foul trouble. The nice thing about the first game/first half of a series is that it oftentimes brings the opportunity to make money in the 2nd game/2nd half.

As far as going 6-0 SU at home, I believe Detroit lost to Cleveland at home in their 2nd game. However, I believe your point about the home teams doing well in the first round causes the line to be skewed toward the home teams in the second round. This is where the opportunity to make money comes in (IMHO).

 

[jonruns]

You're right, 5-1 SU -- haven't run the ATS numbers.

 

[winkyduck]

as i type this - olympic has BOTH games as "pick" so moola here for the home puppies.

for the record i like LA a lot in G1 vs suckramento.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

1st half comes through with the Shock leading the Sun 44-31. I'm going to bet the Sun outscores the Shock in the 2nd half. The line is at -4 but I'm afraid it could be close to that. I'm going with the moneyline for the 2nd half to play it safe.

Sun -183 (2nd Half) for 1 full unit

 

[chriscol]

perfect call on the first game. thx

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Let's get this one back for the 2nd half of the Sparks game. Moneyline for this one again.

Sparks -173 (1/2 unit)

[This message was edited by BigGamesOnly on September 05, 2003 at 11:12 PM.]

 

[elgordo+]

over 69 for me.

lean on la

 

[BigGamesOnly]

chriscol: danke. It's nice to have the feedback.

Sparks come through in the second half winning by 1 point. I'll have records and totals tomorrow.

I plan to take a similar plan of attack toward the Sparks as I did in their first series since the situation is similar. Hopefully the results will be the same.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

YTD: 7-3 +2.67 units

The first round of the WNBA showed us how it was possible to make money even though our team lost their first game. The Lynx beat the Sparks in Minnesota. The same situation exists here in the second round. The Monarchs beat the Sparks in Sacramento.

In the second game of the first series the Sparks went up big 36-26 in the first half to prevent getting behind the 8-ball. I believe that will happen here again. The current line is at -4.5 for the Sparks. I'm going to try to find it at -4. I'm looking to bet 1 full unit on the Sparks in the 1st half but I'm waiting to see if the line changes before committing.

 

[jonruns]

IMO it's going to be SAC-DET in the Final.

I'll take SAC +320 in game #2.

gl

- Jon

 

[BigGamesOnly]

jon:

I'm getting the same idea about Sac as far as going to the next round. The Sparks had a nice comeback in 2nd half in the first game but faltered at the end.

I'm convinced they will do well in the first half of Sunday's game. The line hasn't changed from -4.5 so I'm going with that.

Sparks -4.5 -105 (1st Half) [1 unit]

Good luck!

 

[winkyduck]

i think runs can tear his ticket and BGO can celebrate:

G2 @ 1/2: Sparks 46-26

when the sparks want to send a message - it gets sent!

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Sorry I didn't have a pick for the 2nd half of the Sparks game. Usually when the favorite gets up big I take the underdog in the 2nd half. However, LA was on a roll and Sac was putting up 3-pointers in desparation so I thought LA could have outscored Sac in the 2nd half.

No firm decision on the Detroit/Connecticut game. Maybe I'll put something up for the 2nd half.

YTD: 8-3 +3.62

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Going with Connecticut +2.5 points. Conn is facing elimination in this game. Detroit is up by 11 at half. I see the Sun scoring a few more points. For those of you brave enough, you may want to take the moneyline at +155 but I'm not that brave.

Conn. +2.5 -111 [1/2 unit]

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Conn. scored more points than Det. in the 2nd half for those of you taking the moneyline on Conn. I was hoping Conn. would win the game so I could put some large units on Det. in the first half of the 3rd game but Det. won so there will be no 3rd game.

Not leaning either way in the Sparks/Monarchs 3rd game. I'll wait until the line comes out.


YTD: 9-3 +4.07

[This message was edited by BigGamesOnly on September 07, 2003 at 10:51 PM.]

 

[chriscol]

BGO,great work.

 

[BigGamesOnly]

Thanks chriscol.

I've was trying to find the moneyline on tonight's 1st half. The point spread is currently at -4 for the Sparks. Even if I were to find a moneyline for the Sparks I would bet it would be worse than -200.

I'm betting the Sparks will try to get up big in the 3rd and deciding game of this series so I am taking LA at a -4 point spread at -114 for the 1st half. The Sparks got up 38-26 in the 3rd game of the 1st round of the playoffs against the Lynx so I am betting (hoping) they will do the same here.

I am not, I repeat, *not* taking the Sparks for the whole game. That line is currently at -8 -101. I am waiting until half-time to make any decisions on the 2nd half. I believe we can make some good money on the line for the 2nd half depending on how the 1st half plays out.

LA Sparks -4 points -114 [1/2 unit]

 

[braves112299]

First Half ML -218 at Pinny. Looks like a pretty safe bet as I cant see them losing at the half.