2nd *Biggest Bet of Year* Play (Florida St -3)

[glennlovecolleen3]

*Biggest Bet of Year* Plays: 0-1 (-5.5 u)

***** Florida st -3 ***** (5u)

What is tough about the first play loss with Wake Forest is that you end up second guessing the next play, but can't let that stop me. As long as the money is on the plus side at the end, it's all good. On to the next game......

I think Virginia is a good team with an undefeated record, but they are no BCS team. If you look at all the teams they've played this season, not one of them has a winning record currently. Virginia is like West Virginia team, and the mountaineers realized they were more of a pretender rather than a contender when they lost to an unranked V Tech team.

Florida st has played tough games AT miami and AT syracuse. Played Miami tough and beat Syracuse. Syracuse is undefeated at home till Florida st went in there and beat them. Not an easy thing to do. Virginia did beat the orangemen, but it was in Virginia.

Florida st has an excellent balance attack in their two backs booker and washington, and Sexton at qb, who elevated this team after taking over the starting position in the third game of the season. Sexton isn't INT prone like Rix was, and Sexton is an accurate passer. Very good pass percentage. And Booker and Washington are solid.

Games that Sexton has started this season, with Booker and Washington in the backfield:

Sexton passing 65.4 % against CLemson
L. Booker att 20 yds 97 ypc 4.9
L. Washington 14 78 5.6

64.5% against NC
L. Washington 10 153 15.3
L. Booker 13 86 6.6

57.7% against Syracuse (at Syracuse)
L. Washington 21 168 8.0
L. Booker 15 86 5.7

Florida st can kill you both ways, in the air and on the ground on offense.

Florida st has a solid defense. They have not allowed any one back over 100 yards this season. Florida st has limited Syracuse to only 13 points, it's lowest total in the Carrier Dome this season. Fl state also held Miami to its lowest output this season (16 points). Fl state also held UAB to it's lowest output this season (7 pts). UAB has averaged over 30+ pts in its other games.

Intangibles.....

Florida st is at home. The only team Virginia played on the road this season was against Temple. Temple is only 1-5 this season. Toleda scored 45 points and Bowling Green scored 70 pts against Temple this season. Temple is horrible. Florida st is a team Virginia has not seen the likes of this season and I think Virginia won't be prepaired for what they will run into. Florida st is on another level to the teams Virginia has faces this season. Virginia is ranked just ahead of Florida st. Virginia is undefeated. Florida st will be hungry for this one. Expect the Seminoles to ambush Virginia.

Goodluck.

 

[muffinman]

Glen,

I hate to disagree with you,but I have to here. UVA is nothing like UWV. They are however a lot like FSU. They have a solid defense, and an offense on the rise. I compared the three outcomes of the common opponents, and was shocked that UVA certainly has the edge. And you can't tell me that b/c Cuse was in the carrier dome, they played that much better. I agree they are a better team at home, but they beat FSU in that game for 3 straight quarters, only to lose it in the 4th. FSU has a great defense I will give you that, but have they played an offense as good as UVA's....NO......Miami,Clemson,UNC,Cuse.

Some Stats from common opp:

score yds/dif
Clemson:
UVA 30-10 +253
FSU 41-22 +197
Difference: +1 +56 (edge UVA)

score yds/dif
UNC:
UVA 56-24 +115
FSU 38-16 +79
Difference: +10 +36 (edge UVA)

score yds/dif
Syracuse:
UVA 31-10 +173
FSU 17-13 +147
Difference: +17 +26 (edge UVA)

So how is FSU favored by 3 points? Yes, the cuse game for FSU was in the Carrier dome, and UVA played them home, but the other two opponents were home for both teams.

TAKE THE POINTS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[BigPete]

play the under


I got UVA 24-FSU 10

I wouldn't trust Bowden with Norm Chows brain.

 

[stx]

Glenn,

UVa is good, they have always been suspect on the road. I saw this game in

C'ville last year and the teams were athletically equal. FSU will be no hungrier

than UVa, Noles are better at WR and probably in the secondary. but can they

exploit the advantage. UVa has the coaching advantage and moved the ball

all second half last year. Final was FSU 19 UVa 14, FSU was favored by 8.

 

[kidslick]

glen tough tough loss on sat i knew we were dead when they kicked the field goal from the 2 yard line to tie it up...


good luck this week

kid

 

[HoosWho]

2nd*Bigest Bet of the Year*

Hey stx,

You're right on about this game. Fla. St. has advantage at WR and secondary,but I think Virginia can run clock enough to offset that.

Groh set Lundy down last week after he fumbled for the second time inside the 5 yard line. Pearman played the entire second half and ran for 100+. (I think Lundy got the message).

Also look for more of RB Johnson this week, maybe in sets that they haven't shown yet ( Johnson has more speed than Pearman) Pearman is just a hardnose little guy and runs and catches the ball well so he may also go outside and catch some slot throws.

Good luck on all picks this week. HOOS

 

[stx]

Hoos,
Pearman had 16 receptions against FSU last year, they couldn't stop Miller either. The question is can Hagan's get them the ball over the middle. All
the FSU fans I talked to were feeling fortunate to have won the game.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

You guys make good points. Here are the university sites talking about the game:

FSU's football site:
http://seminoles.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/fsu-m-footbl-body.html

Virginia's football site:
http://virginiasports.collegesports.com/sports/m-footbl/va-m-footbl-body.html

:3dman:

 

[winkyduck]

i agree with ya here


UVA - PROVE it to me first. you've beaten up nobody's all year long - now go beat SOMEBODY on the road - THEN i will buy into you but until then - i don't believe you are as good as you (and others) think you are!

PROVE IT UVA!

 

[toon67]

I'm from UVA area and they will get beat today. Lost their best defensive player 2 weeks ago !! I would luv to see them win but Florida St minus the points is the play. Great call. Florida St and Navy are the two best calls on the board today...Toon67

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

I'm from UVA area and they will get beat today. Lost their best defensive player 2 weeks ago !! I would luv to see them win but Florida St minus the points is the play. Great call. Florida St and Navy are the two best calls on the board today...Toon67

I guess I can take that as a good sign coming from a Virginia person. Usually a home state person would hype their team, but to say the opposite is a more secure sign that they mean what they are saying. I never checked out the Navy game, but I'll keep a note on how they do today. Thanks. I hope you have a good day.

PS: Windyduck, I agree. FSU just got to take care of the ball.

 

[cooltedd]

as a diehard uva fan i have always come to see the wahoos choke in the bigger games...but this years team as well as last years team have matched up well against FSU...they have raised the talent level of the program to be able to compete against FSU. If FSU doesn't come out and knock uva out in the first quarter and this game remains close, look for UVA to win this one outright. FSU cannot stop Heath Miller or the UVA controlled passing attack. This is not the FSU program of the nineties were they could breeze thru the ACC, nor is this the UVA program where 8-5 was a good season....the talk in C'ville is of a possible BCS game in January...that's a conversation that was unheard of in the George Welsh era. This game is too close to place any significant wager on for my tastes but i will hit it with a teaser. i'm taking uva +10 and notre dame +1 for a two teamer that should pay.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Coolted,

You make good points. I think what makes FSU better than recent years is Sexton at QB. I've watched Chris Rix screw it up for FSU in the past. When Sexton took over the starting QB job in the third game of the season, FSU has been an even better team. And the two running backs are solid. FSU has played a tougher schedule this season. Against Miami, barely losing, and went into the carrier dome to beat Syracuse. The only team Virginia beat on the road this season was Temple (1-5). They've played all the rest of their games at home. I think the combination of going on the road and playing the only ranked and winning record team up to date will be to much for Virginia. If Virginia wins or just keeps this game close, they'll prove to me they are for real.

Whatever happens, it will be a great game to watch. Around 3 more hours!! Can't wait.

 

[cooltedd]

glenn loves....should be a great game..another point to keep in mind is that uva last played on thursday night and have had another 2 days to prepare/rest...i'm on a teaser at +10 so maybe we both hit...good luck

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

glenn loves....should be a great game..another point to keep in mind is that uva last played on thursday night and have had another 2 days to prepare/rest...i'm on a teaser at +10 so maybe we both hit...good luck

Half time right now. Since you have the teaser, I hope Virginia can come back a little and we both can hit the books. Gonna go back and watch the game. Goodluck to both of us.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

Winner!!! :aktion033

I hope people didn't abandoned my plays after the Wake Forest loss last week. Florida st -3 came thru rather easily. Hopefully gonna get on the plus units side with the next pick!! Can't wait!!! Feeling good tonight!! :toast:

*Biggest Bet of Year* Plays:
1-1 (-0.5 units)

 

[Cubsmac]

I rode you on this one....thanks, and keep it up!

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

I rode you on this one....thanks, and keep it up!

No problem. Hey, we got something in common. I like the San francisco giants and our baseball teams really choked down the stretch. Atleast theirs college football!! I'm more confident in my plays as the season goes along cause I get to know the teams even more. I'm looking forward to the spreads monday. Take care.

 

[stx]

Glenn,

Nice call, that was fugly, the rumors of the Noles demise were greatly

exagerated. You're right about Sexton too, w/out Rix they can beat anyone.

Also Sims talked trash during the week but backed it up all night.

 

[glennlovecolleen3]

I can imagine FSU's demise if Rix was still the starter. I don't think people realize how good Sexton was. But now they know. Future heisman candidate. I never knew about the Sim's trash talk.

cheers :toast: