287 Early Prelims:
- Newcomer, Jaqueline Amorim(6-0), debuts with some deserved hype as the former IBJFF World Champ and LFA Strawweight Champion. She has burnt through the competition since she started in 2020 with six wins, all by round one finishes. Hughes has to keep fight standing for any chance (Probably too much to ask for a fighter taken down five times lat time out. Sam is quite durable, though. Durability dosen't really matter much when you're getting strangled. Amorim by Sub early, probably R1
- Garcia comes off upset humiliation of Chase Hooper on the feet in under two minutes. He really has no time for defense, dropping both hands and charging forward with powerful overhands. It's effective work against limited strikers, but Nuerdanbieke is a solid counter-puncher with enough skill to keep it standing and avoid Garcia’s powerful G’n’P. Nuerdanbieke's vast experience is mostly from the weak Asian regional scene, but Garcia doesn't have enough to catch Wolverine by surprise. Nuerdanbieke TKO Early
- Ogden(16-5) is a strong wrestler/grappler, but not ‘must watch’ material for fans. Lack of pop in his hands keeps him from climbing the ladder. Well-rounded but lacks the one-shot power to cover for his inconsistent output on the feet. Bahamondes has no problem taking shots to land his work, plus he operates with a long kicking game that earned a crazy wheel kick KO over Roosevelt Roberts. La Jaula’s TDD may be an issue against stronger opponents, but not likely today. He's a real submission threat with his stellar guillotine, which I do believe there's a good chance Ogden fall for it. Bahamondes ITD
- Riding a 4-fight slide at FW, Calvillo has jumped back to Strawweight in an attempt to save her career. She is a solid grappler, but has failed to apply a realistic game plan vs larger, more effective opponents at 125. I doubt Calvillo is ready to grapple, bit it wont matter, as Loopy will force the fight to the mat eventually. Godinez is vastly undersized, even at 115, but sets a hard pace that play well with the judges. A coinflip between a worn/broken veteran and an undersized, technically limited prospect. Calvillo
My action:
- 2/2.10 JAQUALINE AMORIM KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +105
- 1/2.75 JAQUALINE AMORIM IN ROUND 1 +275
- 2/1.16 SHAYILAN NUERDANBIEKE -172
- 2/2.20 SHAYILAN NUERDANBIEKE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +110
- 2/2.10 IGNACIO BAHAMONDES KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +105
- 1/2.17 CYNTHIA CALVILLO +217
WOW, 0-5 is not the way I hoped or expected to start the night.
[0-5 -9.0u]
[0-5 -9.0u]
- 3.11/5 Gerald Meerschaert +161
- 2/4.80 Meerschaert Wins Inside Distance +240
- 3.06/2 Luana Pinheiro -153
- 4.42/5 CHRIS CURTIS +113
- 3/1.42 GASTELUM vs CURTIS o2½ -212
UFC 287: ESPN Prelims
The Calvillo fight moves to ESPN after the heavies couldn't make the call.Williams(8-1) may be a short-notice replacement, but he still looks to pick up his sixth straight win. He fought a mere 3 weeks ago, dominating Lukasz Brzeski over 3 rounds on the mat – landing 8 takedowns and control most of the fight. Sherman, "The Vanilla Gorilla" has only one win in his last six, a late KO over the limited and very tired Jared Vanderaa...that did not inspire much hope of future success. Sherman has struggled with pace and to keep himself standing and impose his size. I do expect Williams having free reign while keeping the fight on the ground mostly, at least as long as it last Williams Early KO- Sub specialist, Meerschaert, has the clear advantage on the mat vs the inexperienced Joseph Pyfer(10-2). Gerald continues to surprise late in his career – keeping him with a well-paying job as a MW gatekeeper. GM3’s hands have improved over the last few years but still he's best advised to avoid extended striking exchanges, considering Pyfer’s heavy hands. Meerschaert Sub
- This feels like Luana Pinheiro's(10-1) fight to lose...she is after all younger, sharper, and an excellent grappler who should overpower her smaller, aging opponent. But the "Karate Hottie" is well-rounded and an experienced veteran. Waterson-Gomez’s 1-4 record in her L5 is deceiving – coming against top line competition (Lemos, Esparza, and Jedrzejczyk). I still believe Luana has the power to dominate rounds, but Waterson-Gomez remains surprisingly effective with her clinch striking that could possibly prove problematic. An upset would not totally surprise me, but I don't have the nads to back it. Pinheiro
- After a 21-month layoff, Gastelum returns as a potentially changed fighter. Head-scratchers with Whittaker and Cannonier saw Kelvin struggle maintaining a consistent output on the feet. His alleged dynamite power may have been over-hyped after building his resume vs aging vet in Bisping & Ellenberger. Curtis is savvy on the feet with the composure needed to counter in the pocket. This likely causes all kind of problem for Gastelum if the fight remains standing. Curtis owns a perfect 100% TDD in the UFC, but Gastelum likely test that stat with quick burst and toughness to ignore distance keeping jabs. There will be plenty of action, but a finish is unlikely...I'll back Curtis and the Over
UFC 287: Main Card
Raul Rosas Jr(7-0) vs Christian Rodriguez(8-1)
- Rosas Jr, returns 4 months after his record-breaking sub win over Jay Perrin. At only 18, Raul has all tools to make a star. Matchmakers may protect their prospect for a year or so since he is athletically capped by his youth. He is still learning how to effectively use his reach standing, but attacks subs like a viper. Rodriguez steps in as the fall guy Dana’s future cash cow. Christian will look to sit down on his shots and box in the pocket. Heavy feet will open up early takedown ops for Rosas Jr to exploit. Rodriguez’s grappling defense is decent but not where he can survive long periods off his back. Rosas Jr Sub
Kevin Holland(23-9) vs Santiago Ponzinibbio(29-6)
- A possible FOTN may surface with 2 forgotten men at WW. Holland retired after the Chimaev debacle, only to return and loss to WonderBoy ITD. He has never been so hopelessly picked apart on the feet. Still he remains a creative, dynamic striker although...but his mental now must be questioned. Ponzinibbio, has struggled after returning from injury in 2021. Solid wins over Morono and Baeza are mixed in with losses to Jingliang Li, Geoff Neal, and Michel Pereira. Ponz has struggled to adapt to his waning athleticism and still tries to rely heavily on the KO power he carries in both hands. Oddly, I favor Holland on the mat – an edge that could prove the difference. Holland Decision
- Font may have been battered black and blue by Aldo and Vera – but he still had pockets of success. He brings a phenomenal jab, a vital weapon against Yanez when you consider the distress caused by the limited Randy Costa. Yanez’s power may be the difference in exchanges, following what Aldo/Vera showed. However, he prefers setting up combos with straight shots. Over only 3 rounds, Font likely outworks Yanez before the puzzle can be cracked. Knockdowns may swing some rounds otherwise I believe Rob can still carry the cards. Font Decision
UFC 287: Top of the Card
Main Event
Alex Pereira(7-1) vs Israel Adesanya (23-2)- I'm guessing these are the 2 most technical strikers in the division at least until the emergence of Israel Nurmagomedov gets some steam. Pereira secured a shock takedown in the second round, but Adesanya dominated on the mat with almost 4 minutes of control time in round three alone. Izzy is best known for his buttery counter-striking but desperate times call for desperate measures. Even Adesanya, a man harboring an immense ego, will have to concede to a safer grappling-first gameplan to protect his interest. He did enjoy considerable success on the feet, rocking Pereira in the first before the bell saved Alex. Pereira had problems reading the step-in jab and so regularly ate his straight right. Adesanya was compromised in the later rounds too, from Pereira’s solid checks. If the former champ better masks his kicks, he will be better prepared to get through the championship rounds. All is irrelevant if Pereira lands another big left hook again. He brings pressure that can wear down on the deepest gas tank. Pereira’s natural one-shot power can't be written off – nor his exceptional skill in using his power. Still, it's difficult to back a fighter with such little MMA experience. The old adage of ‘styles make fights’ is a fair argument, but Adesanya’s grappling cannot be overlooked. Adesanya
CO-MAIN EVENT
- Gilbert Burns(21-5) vs Jorge Masvidal(35-16)
