284

[mrpickem]

Huge card down under starts at 6 pm EST and includes the super-fight showdown between the top 2 pound-for-pound fighters in the UFC. Should be a hugely entertaining night. I missed last week's late-night fight night card.

After 283 I probably need some time to regroup anyways as it was a forgettable night.

Some decent writeups on tonight can be found at https://www.mmanews.com/2023/02/ufc-284-predictions/

 

[exploited17]

I think Emmett is the POD
Only thing I am planning on taking
GL

 

[mrpickem]

UFC Early Prelims

• -Tukhugov is never a safe play, after dropping careless decisions to Moicano and Dawodu in recent years. He's a liquid striker, a menace on the mat but seems plagued with mental lapses. Brenner may be set up as a fall guy but his sub-threat is always a worry. Tukhugov TKO
• -Bilder is a solid wrestler who will test Young’s 56% TDD, but he has been known to eat big shots. Athletic shortcomings aside, Smokin Shane Young is a powerful kickboxer with the ability to overwhelm opponents. Coin flip but I'll back the fresher fighter. Bilder Decision

• -A rare entertaining striker in the Women’s Strawweight division, Lookboonemee returns after dismantling Denise Gomes. Her excellent Muay Thai helps to overcome her slight size. Elise Reed is a solid striker but has shown tendencies to back herself onto the cage, closing the distance for Lookboonmee to exploit. Lookboonmee Decision
• -Jenkins is a powerful fridge of a man with a style that should see him ease through entry-level competition in the UFC. His ground game should be enough to overcome Don Shainis. Shainis often ignores his wrestling in favor of cracking with his heavy hands. Unfortunately, Shainis also runs headfirst into trouble – a fatal flaw at this level. Jenkins KO Early

 

[mrpickem]

Early Stuff...

• 3/3.15 ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +105
• 2.33/3 BLAKE BILDER +129
• 2/1.79 SHANE YOUNG vs BLAKE BILDER o2½ -112
• 5/1.63 LOMA LOOKBOONMEE -307
• 4/2.67 JACK JENKINS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
• 1/2.00 JACK JENKINS IN ROUND 1 +200
• 3/1.66 JACK JENKINS vs DON SHAINIS u2½ -181

 

[mrpickem]

That was a terrible decision in the first fight, I mean I lost either way because I bet ITD, but Zubby was robbed

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 284: ESPN Prelims​

TYSON PEDRO VS MODESTAS BUKAUSKAS

• Pedro (9-3) revitalized his career last year with two first-round KOs. Albeit, vs low level of UFC competition. Freshly recalled Bukaukas seems like a sensible step-up, though. He's a decent offensive striker with a disregard for defense. This match-up won't last long and seems tailor-made for a Pedro highlight. Pedro KO Early

JOSHUA CULIBAO (10-1-1) VS MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN

• Culibao ain’t the most entertaining fighter but his efficient formula of jabs and low kicks has kept him in the UFC for a while. He's an exceptionally smart fighter, usually working behind single shots. Baghdasaryan sat out all of 2022 after a series of injuries. Tonight will show if the time away hampered his sharp kickboxing. Culibao Decision

KLEYDSON RODRIGUES VS SHANNON ROSS

• Rodrigues is a freak athlete who's probably not quite ready for UFC-level competition. He did show off powerful hands in his debut against C.J. Vergara but also his inexperience off his back. Ross is an experienced operator but this will be his UFC debut. He has shown an ability to control opponents from the top before, but there should be too large a physical gap to matter. Rodrigues Decision

JAMIE MULLARKEY(15-5) VS FRANCISCO PRADO(11-0)

• Prado is the last-minute replacement to fight hometown favorite Mullarkey. Prado is only 20 years and has built his undefeated record on the regional scene. Mullarkey will be a huge step up in competition. Jamie is well-rounded and durable enough to adapt over the course of a fight, dragging Prado into waters that he has yet to traverse. Mullarkey ITD

 

[mrpickem]

The problem with Jenkins was he was dead tired mid 2nd round. Even though his corner told him to keep it standing, he took him down and laid on him. I hate that shit, but always an issue when these over-muscled freaks don't get the early finish.

[3-4 -4.58u]

• 3/3.45 JAMIE MULLARKEY KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +115
• 3/3.06 SHANNON ROSS vs KLEYDSON RODRIGUES o2½ +102
• 2/2.70 KLEYDSON RODRIGUES DEC/TECH DEC +135
• 2.14/2 JOSHUA CULIBAO -107
• 5/2.37 TYSON PEDRO -211
• 3/2.50 TYSON PEDRO KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120
• 2/4.50 TYSON PEDRO IN ROUND 1 +225
• 1.11/5 TYSON PEDRO IN ROUND 2 +450

 

[mrpickem]

UFC 284: Main Card​

JIMMY CRUTE (12-3) VS ALONZO MENIFIELD(13-3)

• Two straight first-round losses for Crute have seen him fall off the Light Heavyweight map. He fights a kill-or-be-killed style and will hopefully create enough chaos for Alonzo Menifield to open up on the feet. Menifeld started as a swarming power-punching menace with a 1 round gas tank but has since flip-flopped between various approaches on the feet and the mat. Both carry huge power and Crute is likely to be buoyed by the crowd into a firefight. If not, Jimmy can always use his edge on the mat to prevent a third stoppage loss in a row. Back to the wall, the Aussie shows up. Crute ITD probably by sub

JUSTIN TAFA VS PARKER PORTER

• Another sloppy Heavyweight brawl as per usual. Tafa will never scrub away his decision loss to Jared Vanderaa while Porter just seems to bungle his way through the bottom-of-the-barrel competition. Tafa is kind of explosive, but his telegraphed bursts are few and far between. Porter represents one of the worst athletes in the UFS but his wrestling will keep Tafa quiet in an ugly affair. Porter Decision

RANDY BROWN (16-4) VS JACK DELLA MADDALENA(13-2)

• Brown may deserve a bit more respect although winning 3 of his last 4 by decision has offered little for the highlight reels. He does appear to have overcome mental lapses that plagued his early career. Brown’s 6’3″ frame allows him to use his jab as a building block, with combinations at a safe distance vs some solid competition in Alex Oliveira, Jared Gooden, and Francisco Trinaldo. Not sure Brown has the power to stop the hulking pressure on Maddalena though. Jack has iced all three UFC opponents in the first round, including an impressive win over Emeev. Brown likes working off the front foot, so we likely see both men lock horns in the pocket. Maddalena’s ferocious bodywork and crazy combo have to be favored, but Brown’s clinch work could possibly present issues. Maddalena TKO

 

[mrpickem]

[4-11 -21.69u]

• 6/3.73 JIMMY CRUTE -161
• 4.80/4 JIMMY CRUTE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120
• 5/4.00 JACK DELLA MADDALENA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
• 2/2.08 PARKER PORTER +104

 

[mrpickem]

• 7.12/4 YAIR RODRIGUEZ -178
• 3/9.21 ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI +307
• 10/6.4 ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI vs ISLAM MAKHACHEV o2½ -156

• -There may be some fan frustration with the ‘title’ nature of this bout considering, Rodriguez enters off a win via injury vs Ortega while Emmett arguably lost his last fight on points to Kattar. More important, Volk has defended his belt four times in 2 years...so why do we need an interim? Still, the actual fight promises to be a banger, what with El Pantera's typically electric striking selection along with an improved gas tank and chin/heart combination. Rodriguez did struggle in the clinch with Holloway and there is a possibility Emmett grinds him on the mat. Emmett's heavy hands while timing opponents onto counters, often using the threat of his takedowns as traps. His increased confidence standing has led to a drop in his wrestling numbers. Josh may be a brutal G’n’P artist but his last successful takedown was vs Shane Burgos in June 2020. If the bout evolves into a pure striking contest, Yair’s ability to stamp his mark on rounds likely carries the cards. Rodriguez Decision
• -Volk earned most of his hype after back-to-back-to-back tactical masterclasses vs Holloway. He also gets credit for comprehensive beatdowns of Ortega and the "Korean Zombie". He out-struck both fighters by almost a 3-1 margin – an insane statistic when considering his early success came as a powerful wrestler. With Islam’s stiff footwork, Volk's bursts may see him rack up the volume while limiting takedown opps. While the "Great" showed exceptional sub-defense against Ortega, Makhachev is a different beast – physically and technically – especially on the mat. Likely he can last but gets the worse of exchanges over 5 rounds. Makhachev Decision

 

[mrpickem]

Wow, what a shitty night. It could have been even worse after a streak where I went 1-11-1 in the middle, but I did finish 4-1 in the last 5 and hit my biggest play of the night FWIW.


UFC 284 ~ 2/11/60
3/3.15 ZUBAIRA TUKHUGOV KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +105
2.33/3 BLAKE BILDER +129
2/1.79 YOUNG vs BILDER o2½ -112
5/1.63 LOMA LOOKBOONMEE -307
4/2.67 JACK JENKINS KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
1/2.00 JACK JENKINS IN ROUND 1 +200
3/1.66 JACK JENKINS vs DON SHAINIS u2½ -181
3/3.45 JAMIE MULLARKEY KO,TKO,DQ,SUB +115
3/3.06 ROSS vs RODRIGUES o2½ +102
2/2.70 KLEYDSON RODRIGUES DEC/TECH DEC +135
2.14/2 JOSHUA CULIBAO -107
5/2.37 TYSON PEDRO -211
3/2.50 TYSON PEDRO KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120
2/4.50 TYSON PEDRO IN ROUND 1 +225
1.11/5 TYSON PEDRO IN ROUND 2 +450
6/3.73 JIMMY CRUTE -161
4.80/4 JIMMY CRUTE KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -120
5/4.00 JACK DELLA MADDALENA KO,TKO,DQ,SUB -150
2/2.08 PARKER PORTER +104
7.12/4 YAIR RODRIGUEZ -178
3/9.21 ALEXANDER VOLKANOVSKI +307
10/6.4 VOLKANOVSKI vs MAKHACHEV o2½ -156

[8-13 -13.01u]