found an almost perfect nfl pre-season system for totals...
10-0 in 2007
9-1 in 2006
11-2 in 2005
8-2 in 2004
5-0 in 2003
43-5 last 5 years
also, a 30-9 system in cfb last year that was 25-7 in 2006
this is going to be a huge season.
bonus system:
fade road favs laying 3+ pts after a home fave OT win if their public support % is 59% or higher (22-0 ats). this system (with small changes in parametres works very well in nfl, cbb and nba)
10-0 in 2007
9-1 in 2006
11-2 in 2005
8-2 in 2004
5-0 in 2003
43-5 last 5 years
also, a 30-9 system in cfb last year that was 25-7 in 2006
this is going to be a huge season.
bonus system:
fade road favs laying 3+ pts after a home fave OT win if their public support % is 59% or higher (22-0 ats). this system (with small changes in parametres works very well in nfl, cbb and nba)
the more i leArn about this cle/ga total, the more i like it...
it is now upgraded to my GOY type of play #3
we have two very good offenses here
cleveland 4-2 OVER vs top offenses this season
georgia 6-1 OVER vs top offenses this season
two teams combined for 5-1 OVER against bott defenses t.season
philly is (surprisingly) the only team other than georgia and cleve that is ranked top in offense and bottom in defense and cleveland and georgia went perfect 3-0 OVER against philly in 2008.
another curiosity: ga and cle are among the fastest ball moving teams in the league. georgia #1 in yards gained and only #14 in time of possession. cleveland #5 in yards gained and #11 in top.
they will have plenty of opportunities to score. the key will be in their execution. cleveland is 37/38 in the red zone recently but they can score tons of pts even without breaking into the opponent redzone (see last game when they scored only twice from the red zone and stil scored over 60 pts). the problem for them is in the fact that they aren't stopping anyone. and georgia can definately take advantage of that. go OVER !!!!
it is now upgraded to my GOY type of play #3
we have two very good offenses here
cleveland 4-2 OVER vs top offenses this season
georgia 6-1 OVER vs top offenses this season
two teams combined for 5-1 OVER against bott defenses t.season
philly is (surprisingly) the only team other than georgia and cleve that is ranked top in offense and bottom in defense and cleveland and georgia went perfect 3-0 OVER against philly in 2008.
another curiosity: ga and cle are among the fastest ball moving teams in the league. georgia #1 in yards gained and only #14 in time of possession. cleveland #5 in yards gained and #11 in top.
they will have plenty of opportunities to score. the key will be in their execution. cleveland is 37/38 in the red zone recently but they can score tons of pts even without breaking into the opponent redzone (see last game when they scored only twice from the red zone and stil scored over 60 pts). the problem for them is in the fact that they aren't stopping anyone. and georgia can definately take advantage of that. go OVER !!!!
Did you know ?
13 wins teams that improved at least 2 games from their previous season are 3-15 ATS in week #1 in their following season. (DALLAS HAD 13 W LY)
9 wins teams are 0-11 SU,ATS in week #1 as small dogs of less than 4 pts in week #1 (FADE TAMPA BAY)
Do you want me to post more of these ?
13 wins teams that improved at least 2 games from their previous season are 3-15 ATS in week #1 in their following season. (DALLAS HAD 13 W LY)
9 wins teams are 0-11 SU,ATS in week #1 as small dogs of less than 4 pts in week #1 (FADE TAMPA BAY)
Do you want me to post more of these ?
2006 NFL:
Most improved teams in terms of Wins:
+8 New Orleans
+7 Baltimore
+6 Jets
+5 San Diego
+5 Phill.
How did they do in 2007 ?
New Orleans: Started the preseason 0-2 ATS and regular season 0-4 ATS
Won the pre-season game #3
Baltimore: 1-3 ATS pre-season, sttarted the season 0-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS. Important: lost the week 3 game of the pre-season at home as favorite (we all know that week 3 is usually the only game where teams play to win). So, it was obvious that they were going to be overrated.
Jets: Won their week 3 pre-season game but stil went 1-6-1 ATS in first 8 reg.season games.
San Diego: 1-2 ATS first three pre-season games, 1-3 ATS first three regular season games. (Won their week 3 x-game but did not cover).
Eagles: 1-3 ATS in exibition games, 1-3 ATS first 4 regular season games.
Lost their week 3 exibition game by 14.
The most underachieving teams in 2006
Tampa -7
Pittsburgh -7
Washington -6
Seattle -5
Denver -5
Carolina -5
How did they do in 2007 ?
Tampa: 3-1 ATS preseason, 3-1 ATS first 4 reg. season. 6-1 ATS first 7 home games. Won their week 3 x-game.
Pittsburgh: 3-2 ATS x-games. 3-0 ATS first 3 regular season games. Won and covered in week 3 preseason.
Washington: 3-0 ATS first 3 x-games. 2-1-1 ATS first 4 regular season games. Won their week 3 x-game.
Seattle: 3-1 ATS pre-season. 9-2 ATS overall at home, 8-5 first 13 regular season games. Won their week 3 x-game.
Denver 2-2 ATS pre-season, 0-5 and 1-7 ATS early regular season. Lost their week 3 pre-season game as home favorite.
Carolina: 1-3 ATS pre-season. 4-2 first 6 regular season games but 0-5 ATS first 5 home games. Lost week 3 x-game.
Most improved teams in terms of Wins:
+8 New Orleans
+7 Baltimore
+6 Jets
+5 San Diego
+5 Phill.
How did they do in 2007 ?
New Orleans: Started the preseason 0-2 ATS and regular season 0-4 ATS
Won the pre-season game #3
Baltimore: 1-3 ATS pre-season, sttarted the season 0-5 ATS and 1-10 ATS. Important: lost the week 3 game of the pre-season at home as favorite (we all know that week 3 is usually the only game where teams play to win). So, it was obvious that they were going to be overrated.
Jets: Won their week 3 pre-season game but stil went 1-6-1 ATS in first 8 reg.season games.
San Diego: 1-2 ATS first three pre-season games, 1-3 ATS first three regular season games. (Won their week 3 x-game but did not cover).
Eagles: 1-3 ATS in exibition games, 1-3 ATS first 4 regular season games.
Lost their week 3 exibition game by 14.
The most underachieving teams in 2006
Tampa -7
Pittsburgh -7
Washington -6
Seattle -5
Denver -5
Carolina -5
How did they do in 2007 ?
Tampa: 3-1 ATS preseason, 3-1 ATS first 4 reg. season. 6-1 ATS first 7 home games. Won their week 3 x-game.
Pittsburgh: 3-2 ATS x-games. 3-0 ATS first 3 regular season games. Won and covered in week 3 preseason.
Washington: 3-0 ATS first 3 x-games. 2-1-1 ATS first 4 regular season games. Won their week 3 x-game.
Seattle: 3-1 ATS pre-season. 9-2 ATS overall at home, 8-5 first 13 regular season games. Won their week 3 x-game.
Denver 2-2 ATS pre-season, 0-5 and 1-7 ATS early regular season. Lost their week 3 pre-season game as home favorite.
Carolina: 1-3 ATS pre-season. 4-2 first 6 regular season games but 0-5 ATS first 5 home games. Lost week 3 x-game.
2005, Most improved:
TB +6, CHI +6, SEA+6, CAR+6, WAS+5, NYG+5, MIA+5
Their 2006 season:
TB 1-2 ATS 1st 3 pre season, 0-2 ATS reg.season, 4-8-1 ATS reg.season. Lost their week 3 x-game.
CHI: 2-2 Preseason, 4-1 ATS first 5 regular season (lost week 3 x-game)
SEA: 2-2 pre-season, 4-9-1 ATS regular season, lost week 3 x-game.
Carolina 2-2 ATS x-games 0-4 ats regular season, 4-9-1 ATS Regular season, won week 3 pre-season.
WASH: 0-4 ATS pre-season, 0-2 ats Regular season, 5-9 regular season
NYG: 4-0 Pre-season, 5-2 Regular season
Miami: 2-2 x-games, 0-7 ATS first 7 regular season.
2005 Underachievers: Phi-9,NYJ-7,NE-6,GB-6,HOU-5,NO-5
Their 2006 campaign:
Phi 3-2 ATS pre-season (WW3), 4-1 Reg.season.
NYJ 1-3 PS (5-2, 11-5 Reg.season)
NE: 2-1-1 PS ( 12-6 reg.season)
GB: 1-3 PS, 1-4 Reg season (Lost week 3 x-game big time)
HOU: 2-2 PS, 3-0 first 3 reg.season
NO: 1-3 PS, 4-0 and 9-4 RS.
TB +6, CHI +6, SEA+6, CAR+6, WAS+5, NYG+5, MIA+5
Their 2006 season:
TB 1-2 ATS 1st 3 pre season, 0-2 ATS reg.season, 4-8-1 ATS reg.season. Lost their week 3 x-game.
CHI: 2-2 Preseason, 4-1 ATS first 5 regular season (lost week 3 x-game)
SEA: 2-2 pre-season, 4-9-1 ATS regular season, lost week 3 x-game.
Carolina 2-2 ATS x-games 0-4 ats regular season, 4-9-1 ATS Regular season, won week 3 pre-season.
WASH: 0-4 ATS pre-season, 0-2 ats Regular season, 5-9 regular season
NYG: 4-0 Pre-season, 5-2 Regular season
Miami: 2-2 x-games, 0-7 ATS first 7 regular season.
2005 Underachievers: Phi-9,NYJ-7,NE-6,GB-6,HOU-5,NO-5
Their 2006 campaign:
Phi 3-2 ATS pre-season (WW3), 4-1 Reg.season.
NYJ 1-3 PS (5-2, 11-5 Reg.season)
NE: 2-1-1 PS ( 12-6 reg.season)
GB: 1-3 PS, 1-4 Reg season (Lost week 3 x-game big time)
HOU: 2-2 PS, 3-0 first 3 reg.season
NO: 1-3 PS, 4-0 and 9-4 RS.
^
With a few exceptions, it is obvious that a big majority of those teams either start well (if previous season underachievers) or start bad (previous season most improved teams), and that many of them keep the same form for the entire season.
Week 3 pre-season results can HELP to determinate the best follow/fade candidates.
Keep an eye on these teams in 2008/2009:
Jets (-6) Last season underachiever
Miami (-5) LS underachiever
Cleveland (+6) LS improved
Baltimore (-8) LS underachiever
KC (-5) LS underachiever
Chicago (-6) LS underachiever
GB (+5) LS improved
TB (+5) LS improved
STL (-5) LS underachiever
Interesting pre-season week 1 matchups:
Jets (-6) @ Cleveland (+6)
T.B. (+5) @ Miami (-5)
Cleveland went 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS last season but their offense cooled down late in the season scoring 42 totals pts in last 3 weeks. 6-0 under in last 6 weeks.
The Jets did not quit after a 1-7 su/ats start. They went 3-5 su and 5-3 ats in last 8 games, losing in OT vs Washington, by 6 vs Cleveland, only by 10 @Pats and by 4 @ Tennessee.
TB was streaky last season. And their worst streak came by the end of the season when they lost 4 of last 5 both su and ats.
Miami was...almost winless last season. But with that lack of talent and experience from top to bottom of their playing/coaching personel, they were actually more competitive than expected in many games.
With a few exceptions, it is obvious that a big majority of those teams either start well (if previous season underachievers) or start bad (previous season most improved teams), and that many of them keep the same form for the entire season.
Week 3 pre-season results can HELP to determinate the best follow/fade candidates.
Keep an eye on these teams in 2008/2009:
Jets (-6) Last season underachiever
Miami (-5) LS underachiever
Cleveland (+6) LS improved
Baltimore (-8) LS underachiever
KC (-5) LS underachiever
Chicago (-6) LS underachiever
GB (+5) LS improved
TB (+5) LS improved
STL (-5) LS underachiever
Interesting pre-season week 1 matchups:
Jets (-6) @ Cleveland (+6)
T.B. (+5) @ Miami (-5)
Cleveland went 13-7 SU & 15-5 ATS last season but their offense cooled down late in the season scoring 42 totals pts in last 3 weeks. 6-0 under in last 6 weeks.
The Jets did not quit after a 1-7 su/ats start. They went 3-5 su and 5-3 ats in last 8 games, losing in OT vs Washington, by 6 vs Cleveland, only by 10 @Pats and by 4 @ Tennessee.
TB was streaky last season. And their worst streak came by the end of the season when they lost 4 of last 5 both su and ats.
Miami was...almost winless last season. But with that lack of talent and experience from top to bottom of their playing/coaching personel, they were actually more competitive than expected in many games.
